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emerging and frontier markets:

the unofficial field guide

Site Owner / Publisher:  Sta. Romana, Leonardo L.
        Based in:  Manila, Philippines

Posted on Tue, 24 Apr 2018:

Boskin, Cochrane, Cogan, Shultz & Taylor: A debt crisis in the US is on the horizon, WashPost, 27 Mar 18:
Pres Trump's recently released budget is a wake-up call. For years, economists have warned of major increases in future public debt burdens. That future is on our doorstep, write Hoover Inst senior fellows & economists

Nicholas Lardy: China -- Forced technology transfer and theft?, Peterson Inst (blog), 20 Apr 18:
The increasingly accepted narrative in the West, esp. in the US, is that China acquires technology mostly through forced tech transfer from multinational firms investing in China and through outright theft, writes Inst senior fellow

Island of plastic debris in Pacific far bigger than previous estimates, study says, Reuters, 23 Mar 18:
A giant island of plastic floating in the Pacific Ocean holds as much as 16 times more debris than was previously thought, posing a significant threat to the food chain, scientists said       (Great Pacific Garbage Patch, Natl Geographic  |  World Earth Day, 22 Apr)

Posted on Tue, 10 Apr 2018:

Kenneth Rogoff: Will China really supplant US economic hegemony?, Project Syndicate, 03 Apr 18 [via Korea Times]:
As China and the US engage in their latest trade tussle, most economists take it as given that China will achieve global econ supremacy in the long run, no matter what happens now, writes recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in fin. econ

Which comes first in development: Good governance or econ growth? A surprising lesson fr China, OECD (blog), 04 Apr 18:
For decades, positions have been sharply divided between those who advocate "fix governance first" and others who say "stimulate growth first", writes author of How China Escaped the Poverty Trap (2016)

Robert Shiller: The Trump boom is making it harder to see the next recession, NYT, 27 Mar 18 [courtesy Yale U]:
The truth is that we really can't foresee where the economy will be heading in a year or two, a limitation that is particularly troubling right now, in the midst of what may be called the Trump econ boom, writes 2013 Nobel Laureate

Posted on Mon, 02 Apr 2018:

Bown and Irwin: Does Trump want a trade war?, WashPost, 21 Mar 18 [via Peterson Inst]:
"Trade wars are good, and easy to win," acc. to Pres Trump. His statement brings to mind the infamous Smoot-Hawley tariffs and the "trade wars" that accompanied the Great Depression of the 1930s, write Inst senior fellow; and Dartmouth College economist

Claude Barfield: For once, Trump's trade tactics hit the mark, The Hill, 28 Mar 18 [via Amer Enterp Inst]:
The Trump admin does so many foolish things in trade policy -- steel and aluminum tariffs on treaty allies -- that one can miss or discount cases where the Pres and his team are on target, writes Inst resident scholar / fmr Office of US Trade Rep consultant

Kaushik Basu: The ethics of reducing inequality, Project Syndicate, 30 Mar 18 [via Brookings Inst]: 
To understand the logic and morality of inequality, it is worth digging further into the role of luck. It is not just that one part of a person's wealth is due to luck; rather, all of it is, writes Inst senior fellow / fmr World Bank chief economist

Posted on Sun, 18 Mar 2018:

Martin Feldstein: The real reason for Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs, Project Syndicate, 15 Mar 18 [PDF, via Harvard]:
Like almost all economists, I prefer low trade tariffs or no tariffs at all. How, then, can Pres Trump's decision to impose substantial tariffs on imports be justified?, asks Pres Reagan's Council Econ Advisers chair       (UC-Irvine's Navarro and Trump White House trades in controversy)

John Cochrane: Trump’s tariffs will hurt trade, and trade is a good thing – really, Fox News, 06 Mar 18 [via Cato Inst]:
In a remarkable achievement, Pres Trump has united the nation's economists by proposing tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, designed to reduce imports of those goods, writes Univ Chicago economist / Inst adjunct scholar

Profile of 2014 Nobel Laureate Jean Tirole, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, 09 Mar 18:
The Toulouse School of Econ prof sees a close similarity between econ and the "caring profession" of medicine. Like the cancer specialist, the economist makes a diagnosis on the basis of the best available (though necessarily imperfect) knowledge

Posted on Tue, 06 Mar 2018:

Fred Bergsten: How not to mobilize against China, Peterson Inst (blog), 06 Mar 18:
To effectively attack China's trade and investment policies, the US must have allies. We no longer have the power to unilaterally compel other countries, esp. a superpower like China, to mend their ways, writes Inst dir emeritus

Guriev, Leipziger and Ostry: Inclusive growth or else, Project Syndicate, 07 Feb 18 [via Financial Express/Bangladesh]:
Participants at Davos did not question the basic building blocks of growth. But they did criticize how unfairly the benefits of growth are being distributed, write Europ. Bank Reconstr & Devt chief economist; Growth Dialogue manag dir; and IMF Res Dept dep dir

Escape artist, Finance & Development, Mar/May '18:
A profile of 2015 Nobel Laureate Angus Deaton: In The Great Escape (2013), he argued that foreign aid can be harmful because it makes recipient govts more accountable to foreign donors than to their own people

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