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Top Risks in 2025 for Governments and Businesses, Eurasia Group, 06 Jan 25:

We are heading back to the law of the jungle. A world where the strongest do what they can, while the weakest are condemned to suffer what they must. And the former--whether states, companies, or individuals--can't be trusted to act in the interest of those they have power over. Plus some "red herrings", and implications for Brazil, Canada, Europe and Japan

Explainer: Why Does Trump Want Greenland and Could He Get It?, Reuters, 08 Jan 25 [via Straits Times / Singapore]:

Trump first expressed interest in buying the mineral-rich and strategically important island from Denmark in 2019 but was rebuffed. "This is a deal that must happen," Trump said, as his son, Donald Jr paid a private visit to the mostly ice-covered island of 57,000 people

• Greenland’s Leader Says His People Don't Want To Be Americans as Trump Covets Territory, AP, 11 Jan 25

• Explainer: What Is the Panama Canal and Why Has Trump Threatened to Take It Over?, Reuters, 24 Dec 24 [via Straits Times / S’pore]

• Panama Canal Administrator Pushes Back Against Trump’s Assertions of Chinese Meddling, AP, 11 Jan 25

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Stern and Hale: The Art of the Tariff Deal – Another Way Trump Can Boost the US Economy, New York Post, 24 Oct 24 [courtesy Heritage Found.]:

Tariffs can be wielded both destructively and constructively, and using them is a fine art. When used properly, the threat of a new tariff from a US pres is a direct attack on foreign special interests, write Found Ctr Fed Budget dir ; and senior trade policy analyst

• Wolff: Expect Trump's Demands, Not Rules, to Govern US Trade Policy, Peterson Inst (blog), 03 Dec 24

• Baldwin: Who Gets Hurt by the Trump Tariff Bombshells?. LinkedIn, 29 Nov 24

Lubin: Emerging Markets’ Two-Way Traffic, Finance & Development, Dec '24:

Financially fragile economies are pursuing market-friendly reforms, while some stronger emerging market economies are doing the opposite, writes Chatham House global economy progr senior res fellow




23 Nobel Prize-winning Economists Call Harris' Economic Plan "Vastly Superior" to Trump's, CNN, 23 Oct 24:

More than half of the living US recipients of the Nobel Prize for economics signed onto the letter, includ two of the three most recent recipients. The letter was spearheaded by Joseph Stiglitz, a Columbia Univ prof and 2001 Nobel laureate, and marks the 2nd major foray into the campaign by a group of Nobel laureates

• Text of Letter: Twenty-Three Nobel Economists Sign Letter Saying Harris Agenda Vastly Better, Columbia Univ [PDF]

Economists Who Support Harris "Lack Evidence" – Trump Economic Advisers, Newsweek, 30 Oct 24:

Economists who have endorsed Harris' econ proposals have produced no evidence to back up their claims, say Hassett, fmr chair of Trump's Council of Econ Advisers, and Mulligan, fmr member of Trump's CEA. "Proponents of the position that Harris' economy would outperform Mr. Trump's should show their work," they said


World on Deadline for Carbon-cutting "Quantum Leap" – UN, AFP, 24 Oct 24 [courtesy Business Times/ Singapore]:

The major economies of the G20 accounted for 77 per cent of all global carbon emissions last year, according to the UNEP report. Three countries churned out roughly half of the total: China at 30 per cent, the US 11 per cent and India 8 per cent. The European Union produced 6 per cent.

The 2024 Nobel Prize in Economics is awarded to: Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson "for studies of how institutions are formed and affect prosperity", 14 Oct 24:

The trio from MIT and Unuv Chicago provided an explanation for why some countries are rich and others poor. One important explanation is persistent differences in societal institutions. By examining the various political and economic systems introduced by European colonizers, they have been able to demonstrate a relationship between institutions and prosperit




:Painful policy choices loom after China's 'monumental' consumer stimulus plan, Reuters, 30 Sep 24 [via Y Finance]:

China's stimulus plans to fill consumer pockets to meet its 2024 growth target breaks away from a decades-old policy playbook, but making household demand a sustainable driver of development instead of investment is a long path paved with tough choices


The Hague to Ban Fossil Fuel Ads, Agence France-Presse, 13 Sep 24 [via France 24]:

The Dutch city of The Hague has become the 1st in the world to pass local laws banning advertisements for fossil fuels, petrol cars and long-distance air travel, officials said. The administrative city of over 500,000 residents adopted the groundbreaking local legislation which comes into effect on 01 Jan

• Lawrence & Tingley: The Populism of Self-Destruction: How Better Policy can Blunt the Anti-Clean Energy Backlash, Harvard Univ, May '24

Emerging Markets on the Global Stage, Finance & Development, by Aslam & Brooks, Sep/Nov '24:

In 1981, an enterprising employee at the Intl Finance Corp, Antoine van Agtmael, devised the term "emerging market" to drum up interest in a new equity fund of 10 up-and-coming developing economies. This label - evoking dynamism, potential, and promise - stuck. However, many emerging markets are outgrowing both the term and the stereotype




Nobel Laureates and Former Presidents Slam Lack of Fossil Fuel Mention in UN Pact Draft, CSO Futures, 14 Aug 24:

A group of 77 former world leaders and Nobel laureates have shared in an open letter their "grave concern" about the removal of any mention of fossil fuels in the latest draft of the UN Pact for the Future, intended for the coming UN Summit of the Future in New York at the end of Sep

• An Open Letter from Global Leaders and Nobel Laureates, 13 Aug

Obstfeld: America's Deficit Attention Disorder, Project Syndicate, 07 Aug 24 [via Jamaica Gleaner]:

Trump is making a big mistake by obsessing over the trade deficit. Worse, his preferred corrective – wide-ranging import tariffs – would damage the US and world economies, all while diverting attention from the US deficit that does matter, that neither political party wants to talk about, writes Peterson Inst senior fellow 


Blanchard: The Perfect Storm -- Deglobalization's Headwinds, AXA IM Investment Inst, July '24:

Globalization - the rising interconnection of the world's economies and populations, driven by intl trade in tech, services, goods as well as the flow of investment and info - is facing at least five different headwinds. The correct econ answer cannot be an absolutist defense of free trade, writes Peterson Inst senior fellow 




Pethokoukis: What Kind of Economy Will the Next US President Inherit?, Amer Enterp Inst (blog), 26 Jul 24:

Policy decisions will matter, both next year and beyond. Nothing should be taken for granted. Tariffs, immigration restrictions, and unchecked spending could spoil the bullish outlook, just as more science investment, more foreign talent, and less anti-growth regulation could support it, writes Inst senior fellow

• "This Just Isn't Going to Add Up": Experts Warn Trumponomics Would Hurt US, Guardian, 15 Jul 24

• Strain: The Economic World We've Lost, Project Syndicate, 10 Jun 24 [via Amer Enterp Inst (blog)]

Curtright: 'Circular' Economic Development Projects Could Build Common Ground, RAND (blog), 24 May 24:

A 'circular economy' is one that reuses products and materials--through recycling, upcycling, or repurposing--to reduce waste, to use less water and energy, and to extract fewer resources from the earth, writes RAND senior scientist with a focus on energy/environment

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