News and Analysis: 16-20 Nov 09 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

Based in: Manila, Philippines

Posted on Fri, 20 Nov 09:

Japan's economy heads back to deflation: Japan's fledgling recovery is under threat from falling prices as the govt conceded today that deflation had returned to the world's 2nd biggest economy for the 1st time in more than 3 yrs. The news prompted the finance minister to talk of a 'sense of crisis' over falling prices - the problem which plagued Japan during its 'lost decade' of econ stagnation in the '90s, Guardian/ UK, 20 Nov 09

Govts' "perverse policies" making hunger worse: In a recent report published by a SAfrica-based anti-poverty NGO, Brazil ranks 1st among developing nations for its progress in the fight vs hunger. The report, "Who's Really Fighting Hunger?", is based on research conducted in 51 nations by the group. It assessed 29 developing nations on the basis of legal commitment to the right to food, investment in agric and social protection, and performance on hunger and child nutrition. Brazil came in 1st, ahead of China, Ghana and Vietnam. Luxembourg topped the ranking of 22 developed nations, ActionAid, 16 Oct 09 (Brazil's food security program wins World Future Council award | More info)

Posted on Thu, 19 Nov 09:

Asia helps feeble West in global recovery-OECD: The OECD's global growth forecast released today includes emerging giants China, Brazil, India and Russia w/ the mostly industrialized economies of its own 30-nation membership and in all covers some 80% of world output. Compared to a GDP forecast of 1.9% next yr for the OECD members, the report forecasts growth of more than 10% in China due in large part to massive stimulus that it believes maintained GDP growth at more than 8% in '09, when output was shrinking across the West. India could expect 7.3% next yr, while Brazil is headed for growth of 4.8%, Reuters (courtesy Public broadcasting WUTC), 19 Nov 09

Coffers: Why I'm buying frontier markets now--Q&A w/ Mark Mobius, Templeton's managing director and legendary investor: Q-What will be the most exciting areas of the world to invest in next yr? What sectors are you most excited by right now? Will commodities outperform equities in '10? What are the dangers right now in your opinion?, IndexUniverse, 15 Oct 09

Posted on Wed, 18 Nov 09:

Hunger summit's failure exposes grim reality: There are 2 main ways the flop of this week's UN world food security summit in Rome - which has been snubbed by the world's top leaders, has failed to deliver binding aid commitments, or to set a target date for the eradication of hunger - is being read, Inter Press Service, 17 Nov 09

Forecasters see the US economic expansion continuing: The US economy will grow over each of the next 5 qtrs, according to 41 forecasters in the latest Survey of Professional Forecasters, the oldest quarterly survey of macroecon forecasts in the US. The forecasters see real GDP growing at an annual rate of 2.7% this qtr, and they see jobs beginning to grow in the 2nd qtr of '10, Philadelphia Fed, 16 Nov 09

Unified Korea would be more powerful than Germany, Japan economically - Goldman Sachs: A united Korea - combining Asia's 4th biggest economy with one of its poorest - could surpass that of Germany or Japan in economic might in the next 30-40 yrs, the US investment bank said in a new report. Though NKorea's planned economy looks to be on the edge of collapse, it offers a large and cheap workforce, a wealth of minerals that the resource-poor South currently has to import to feed its industry and the likelihood of gains in productivity and its currency once econ reforms take hold, Reuters (courtesy Seoul Times), 26 Sep 09 (GS--A unified Korea? [pdf], courtesy NKeconwatch)

Posted on Tue, 17 Nov 09:

Anticorruption group releases its annual corruption perceptions index: The index ranks 180 nations by their perceived levels of corruption, as determined by expert assessments and opinion surveys. Fragile, unstable states that are scarred by war and ongoing conflict linger at the bottom of the index: Somalia, Afghanistan, Myanmar and Sudan. At the top are New Zealand, Denmark, Singapore, Sweden and Switzerland, whose scores reflect political stability, long-established conflict of interest regulations and solid, functioning public institutions, Transparency Intl, 17 Nov 09

E Prasad and G Gu: An awkward dance--China and US: China is slowly adjusting to its role as a major global econ power and still trying to find the right balance bet. asserting its authority and managing the responsibility that comes w/ being a major power. There are other economies that depend heavily on the US - Canada and Mexico come to mind - but none of these has the heft of China or the desire and ability to become a world power in their own right. This creates a situation that is ripe for econ and geopolitical jockeying, w/ great potential for conflict even though both nations would stand to gain from a constructive relationship, say Inst senior fellow and Cornell economist, Brookings, 11 Nov 09

Posted on Mon, 16 Nov 09:

Potential success of UN world food summit questioned: The World Food Summit in Rome is not likely to make more than token headway in the fight vs hunger, w/ leaders merely pledging to boost aid to poor nations but setting no targets or deadlines for action. Aid groups are billing the summit as 'a missed opportunity to tackle malnutrition'. While 60 world leaders are expected to attend, only one G8 leader - the host, Italy's PM - will, Kaiser Foundation, 13 Nov 09 (Intl Food Policy Res Inst/ Welthungerhilfe/ Concern--Global hunger index | Report)

Obama in Asia: Q&A w/ Minxin Pei, author of China's Trapped Transition--Q: Is America's influence in Asia rising or falling? US is the biggest single importer of Chinese goods, and China is the largest holder of US Treasuries. Will bilateral trade and China's currency, the yuan, be major topics of conversation during Obama's visit and in the yrs to come?, Carnegie Endowment for Intl Peace, 10 Nov 09

Nicholas Lardy: Doing well in China (letter to editor [scroll])--Your portrayal of China as an inaccessible market was somewhat misleading. China’s imports last yr were equivalent to 25% of its GDP, a share half as large as that of the US and more than twice that of Japan. Foreign direct investment is now flowing in strongly and foreign firms produce a larger share of manufactures there than in the EU. This does not comport with your characterization of its economy as 'impenetrable', says co-author of China's Rise, Economist, 5 Nov 09 (Peterson Inst: Obama in China--Limited expectations [pdf])

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