News and Analysis: 6-21 Dec 10 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

Based in: Manila, Philippines

Posted on Tue, 21 Dec 10:

UN keeps troops in Ivory Coast, defying Gbagbo: World powers voted on Mon to keep UN forces in Ivory Coast, defying incumbent Gbagbo's demand they leave, and the UN peacekeeping chief said the troops would shoot back if fired on. Gbagbo faces growing int'l pressure after EU nations agreed to impose a travel ban on him and his entourage for failing to step down after a 28 Nov vote the outside world says he lost. Rival claimant Ouattara is backed by the UN, African leaders, US and EU but Gbagbo still controls the army in a power struggle that has raised fears of civil war resuming in the world's top cocoa grower,   AlertNet, 20 Dec 10

Remittances to developing countries resilient in the recent crisis: Remittances to developing countries are expected to reach $325bn by the end of this year, up from $307bn in '09, acc to the Migration and Remittances Factbook 2011. The top remittance sending countries are the US, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland, Russia, and Germany, while the top recipient countries are India, China, Mexico, Philippines, and France. As a share of GDP, however, remittances are more significant for smaller countries - more than 25% in some countries,   World Bank, 8 Nov 10

Olive Room: Palestinians to fund renovation of Nativity Church--The Palestinian Authority (PA) and Christian leaders signed an accord to repair the Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem, the traditional site of Jesus's birth. The $1 million PA-funded project, to be carried out by an int'l consortium supervised by an Italian renovations expert, will fix roof leaks that could otherwise threaten the building's interior. It will be the 1st such maintenance work on the roof in 200 years, acc to the (Roman) Catholic custodian of the church, which is shared with Greek Orthodox and Armenian Orthodox Christians,   Ag. France-Presse, Sep '10 | Bethlehem's reality not reflected in the beloved Christmas carol, Northfield News, 14 Dec | Peace swells Bethlehem tourism, AP, 19 Dec | Bethlehem 'center of Christian spirituality' despite conflict, Ecumenical News, 20 Dec | Bethlehem Passport) [courtesy InNews/ Spore; Tampa Bay/ US; & Insights News/ Austral.]

Posted on Mon, 20 Dec 10:

Michael Spence: The risk tsunami we must act on - now--Guiding global interdependence in a way that ameliorates negative distributional trends is possible, but it will require wisdom and insight. Recognizing our collective interest in the openness of the global economy is not sufficient. We need a pragmatic willingness to adapt incentives and outcomes to achieve distributional results that allow the major players, with their domestic political constraints, to keep the system open. The alternative will be unilateral measures aimed at achieving the same goals, but leading to outcomes that leave everyone worse off, says Nobel Laureate '01 / New York U prof and Stanford U senior fellow, Proj Syndicate (courtesy Today/ Spore), 16 Dec 10

The Korea-US trade pact--Assessing the impact: The Korea deal was secured on 3 Dec after key Korean concessions in the auto sector. It will likely pass US Congress next year despite opposition from a majority of House Democrats. Immediate tariff cuts on autos and light trucks have been deferred a few years. Korea agreed to auto regulatory reforms that should help mitigate existing problems and preclude the introduction of new nontariff barriers, says Inst senior fellow, Peterson Inst, 7 Dec 10 [PDF] (Schott: Korea-US free trade agreement 2.0, Policy Brief, 16 Dec)

Fun and games with Avinash Dixit: It may seem strange that this fmr Amer Econ Assn pres, who grew up in the tropical heat of India, has a shelf in his living room of neatly arranged books on icebound Antarctic expeditions. But the owlish Princeton U prof has a simple explanation: "They're ideal for illustrating game theory strategies. Almost always an expedition had a fatal flaw that guaranteed defeat compared with the rival that succeeded." He has also spent the past decade watching what drives econ dev't, incl governance and institutions, and has studied fragile states - poor nations recovering from conflict or disasters, Finance & Dev't, Dec '10

Posted on Fri, 17 Dec 10:

Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission's partisan bickering: The federal commission investigating the financial meltdown of '07-'08 seems to be melting down too. Its 4 Republican appointees issued a 'primer' on the econ crisis Wed., a month after the full commission voted (along party lines) to delay its final report until Jan. It's quite disappointing that the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission members apparently can't set aside their political differences in order to reach common ground on the basic facts of the crisis,   Los Angeles Times, 17 Dec 10 (Commission's Web site | Why our statement is not a dissent or a Republican report, American Mag, 15 Dec | Financial crisis primer)

350 mln rural people pull out of desperate poverty in past decade: Despite these improvements since the last edition of the report was published in '01, global poverty remains a massive and mostly rural phenomenon - with 70% of the developing world's 1.4 bn extremely poor people living in rural areas. Increasingly volatile food prices, the uncertainties and effects of climate change, and a range of natural resource constraints will complicate further efforts to reduce rural poverty, the report says. But it also emphasizes that profound changes in agric markets are giving rise to new and promising opportunities for smallholder farmers to significantly boost their productivity,   Int'l Fund Agric Dev't, 6 Dec 10

Weighing in on the world's cities: Move over London, New York, Paris, and Tokyo. Make way for a new breed of emerging global cities. A recent study that looked at 21 of the world's strongest finance/ commerce hubs has found that though those powerhouse cities still dominate in certain key indicators like econ clout or strength of currency, the world’s so-called 2nd cities may have more to offer in quality. Chicago, Singapore, Stockholm, and Toronto excel in quality-of-life indicators, such as intellectual capital, sustainability management, and city livability. Seoul and Sydney are also well-planned sustainable cities, topping the ranks in recycled waste and smallest city carbon footprint,   PricewaterhouseCoopers, Nov '10

Posted on Wed, 15 Dec 10:

Kenneth Rogoff: Euro crisis reaches midlife--A huge, sustained burst of growth could still cure all of Europe's debt problems. But that halcyon scenario looks increasingly improbable. The endgame is far more likely to entail a wave of debt writedowns, similar to the one that finally wound up the Latin American debt crisis of the '80s. As European policymakers seek to move from one stage of denial to another, perhaps it is time to start looking ahead more realistically. As any recovering alcoholic could tell them, the 1st step is admitting that Europe has a problem, says fmr IMF chief economist/ Harvard prof,   Proj Syndicate (courtesy Japan Times), 8 Dec 10 (2010 TIAA-CREF Paul Samuelson Award [PDF])

Coffee/ Tea Room: Angus Deaton--Dispatches from the gloom: or the moon over Texas--There is a story about 2 blondes sitting on a park bench in the moonlight in Texas. 'Which do you think is closer,' muses one, 'the moon or Houston?' 'Duh.' 'What do you mean, duh?' 'Duh, can you see Houston from here?' Less than 10% of Americans can 'see' any effects of the stimulus on unemployment. The dismal state of American education doubtless bears some responsibility for these views, but it is hard not to identify some of the failure as ours; economics has failed to set any limits on the public debate about cause and effect in macroeconomics, says fmr Amer Econ Assn pres/ Princeton U prof,   Royal Economic Society, Oct '10  (His first dispatch) [PDF]

The dragon and the elephant--Understanding the development of innovation capacity in China and India: Some observers of the recent growth of the 2 nations have said that both are surging in their efforts to spur innovation. Others have emphasized the potential of one nation over the other, and still others have suggested that both have a long way to go before achieving innovation-driven growth. With such a range of views, the Nat'l Academies set out to describe developments in both nations by organizing a conference, summarized here. It discussed recent changes at both the macro level and also in selected industries, and explored the causes and implications of those changes,   US Nat'l Academies Sci/ Engg/ Med, Mar '10 [PDF]

Posted on Mon, 13 Dec 10:

Battle of the eastern titans: Trade between India and China is booming, but diplomatic ties have become increasingly fraught over their competing global aspirations, underlined by a rivalry for natural resources, skewed trade and an unsettled border. Here are some questions and answers about their rivalry across the globe--Q: What are they competing for? What are their geopolitical rivalries? What about their border dispute? And what is the current state of play?,   Reuters (courtesy Independent Online/ S Africa), 13 Dec 10

Why is social protection important to Africa?: 'Social protection for inclusive development' is the theme of the 2nd European Report on Dev't. Social protection refers to the set of public and private mechanisms (like social transfers, health insurance, public-work schemes and pensions) which prevent individuals and households from suffering the worst consequences of some negative econ shocks and/or chronic need. It is often considered a double-dividend policy for dev't - it is an effective input for econ growth and directly reduces poverty, thus making growth more pro-poor,   European Report on Dev't, 7 Dec 10 [PDF]

The new geography of global innovation: While the US and Japan remain leaders in innovation, increased competition from growth markets, notably China, suggests a changing landscape. R&D spending in Asia surpassed EU levels in '05, and is likely to overtake US levels in the next 5 years, thanks primarily to striking growth in R&D investment in China. R&D investment is driven largely by the corporate sector, which finances more than two-thirds of total R&D spending in many nations. The new geography is critically dependent upon higher education in science and engineering,   Goldman Sachs, Sep '10 [w/ introd/exec sum, PDF, 1.2MB] (Infographic - New world powers in innovation, Grant Thornton, Aug '09)

Posted on Fri, 10 Dec 10:

Verandah: Cancun - Russia will not renew Kyoto protocol: Russia said it would not renew its commitment beyond 2012 to the Kyoto protocol, the treaty that has governed climate negotiations for more than a decade. The announcement further cements the divide between rich and poor nations over the future of the agreement following a statement from Japan at the start of the talks that it too would not sign an extension of Kyoto. Canada is also believed to oppose an extension. Developing nations say Kyoto is essential as the only int'l agreement requiring industrialized nations to reduce their emissions. But some developing nations have also admitted they were open to a fudge - deferring the question of Kyoto's future to next year's climate summit in SAfrica,   Guardian, 10 Dec 10 (UN climate conference)

A Kose and E Prasad: Emerging markets come of age--Before the global financial crisis of '08-'09, there was a growing sense among investors and policymakers that emerging economies, with their new econ might, had become more resilient to shocks originating in industrial economies. Yet the global financial crisis seemed to put to rest such notions. It cast a shadow over the ability of emerging markets to insulate themselves from developments in industrial economies. Still, once the worst of the crisis began to wear off, it became apparent that as a group, emerging economies had weathered the global recession better than industrial economies, say asst. to IMF research dept director and Cornell U prof,   Finance & Dev't, Dec '10

Tokyo, Luanda are most expensive cities for expats: Tokyo maintains its position as the most expensive location in Asia and worldwide for int'l assignees. The strengthening yen means Japanese locations dominate the top of the ranking. Luanda has slipped to 2nd place globally but remains the most expensive in Africa. While items typically purchased by assignees in the Angolan capital are very expensive - many have to be imported into a nation where the infrastructure remains severely damaged after years of war - the currency has depreciated following the loosening of its unofficial peg vs the dollar. This cost of living survey is carried out twice a year comparing a basket of consumer goods and services commonly purchased by assignees in 400 locations worldwide. The data is used by clients to calculate cost of living allowances for assignees,   ECA Int'l, 2 Dec 10

Posted on Wed, 8 Dec 10:

Newsroom: Julian Assange--Don't shoot messenger for revealing uncomfortable truths: WikiLeaks coined a new type of journalism - scientific journalism. We work with other media outlets to bring people the news, but also to prove it is true. Scientific journalism allows you to read a news story, then to click online to see the original document it is based on. That way you can judge for yourself: Is the story true? Did the journalist report it accurately? Democratic societies need a strong media and WikiLeaks is part of that media. The media helps keep gov't honest. WikiLeaks has revealed some hard truths about the Iraq and Afghan wars, and broken stories about corporate corruption, says WikiLeaks editor-in-chief,   Australian, 8 Dec 10 ; and

Bipartisan legislation goes after WikiLeaks by amending Espionage Act: Senators Ensign, Lieberman and Brown led today in introducing legislation that will help derail the very real threat posed to human intelligence sources by WikiLeaks. "Assange and his cronies, in their effort to hinder our war efforts, are creating a hit list for our enemies by publishing the names of our human intelligence sources. Let me be very clear, WikiLeaks is not a whistleblower website and Assange is not a journalist," said Ensign. "This legislation will help hold people criminally accountable who endanger our sources of info that are vital to protecting our national security interests," added Lieberman,   US Senate, 2 Dec 10 (Lieberman on Amazon and WikiLeaks)

Korea, Finland top latest survey of education performance of 15-year olds: Korea and Finland top the latest Program for Int'l Student Assessment (PISA) survey of reading literacy, which for the 1st time tested students' ability to manage digital info. The previous PISA results were released in '07. The survey, based on 2-hour tests of a half million students in more than 70 economies, also tested math and science.   Shanghai took part for the 1st time and scored higher in reading than any nation. It also topped the table in math and science. The next highest reading results are from Hong Kong, Singapore, Canada, New Zealand and Japan. In math, Singapore and Hong Kong rank among the top 3,   OECD, 7 Dec 10 (Exec sum) [PDF]

Posted on Mon, 6 Dec 10:

Jagdish Bhagwati: India or China?--When US Pres Obama visited India in Nov and complimented its leaders on the growing success and prowess of their economy, a tacit question returned to center stage: Will China grow faster than India indefinitely, or will India shortly overtake it? In fact, this contest dates back to '47, when India gained independence and democracy became the nation's defining feature, while China turned to Communism with the success of Mao Zedong after the Long March, notes NY Council on Foreign Relations senior fellow/ Columbia U prof,   Proj Syndicate (courtesy Nepali Times), 5 Dec 10

5 fundamental changes are boosting growth in Africa:  17 emerging African nations are putting behind them the conflict, stagnation and dictatorships of the past, acc to a new book by Steve Radelet.  "The biggest trend in sub-Saharan Africa over the last 15 years is divergence. The story that people claim - that after all the efforts and the aid flows there has been no change in Africa - is garbage," the author said. Instead of treating the region as a monolith, he stressed the differences between Africa's emerging countries. He said that since the mid-'90s, a group of 17 emerging nations had broken away from the rest of the region and achieved steady econ growth, deepening democracy, stronger leadership, and falling poverty,   IMF Survey Mag, 16 Nov 10

Newsroom: WikiLeaks back with new address--The whistleblower Web site WikiLeaks was back online Fri with a new Swiss address - wikileaks.ch - 6 hours after its previous domain name - wikileaks.org - was shut down by its American domain name system provider, EveryDNS.net, following reports of massive cyber attacks on the site. The latest tech setback for the site came after Amazon booted it from its computer servers on Wed. following pressure from US politicians, prompting the site to move to a French server,   Ag. France-Presse (courtesy New Straits Times/ Malaysia), 3 Dec 10 (How Lieberman got Amazon to drop WikiLeaks, Talking Points Memo, 1 Dec | Amazon evicts WikiLeaks. Who's next?, Gawker, 2 Dec | Amazon explains its action vs WikiLeaks, 3 Dec)

EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

emerging and frontier markets:

the unofficial field guide