News and Analysis: 1-5 Feb 10 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

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Posted on Fri, 5 Feb 10:

World stocks hit by fears of debt crisis contagion: World stocks tumbled again today as investors worried that the debt crisis enveloping Greece may spread to other vulnerable countries in Europe such as Portugal, and amid fears that jobs data later will show that the US recovery is weaker than expected, AP (courtesy NewsTimes), 5 Feb 10 GMT

Scientists in stolen email scandal hid climate data: The university at the center of the climate change row over stolen emails broke the law, the Freedom of Information Act, by refusing to hand over its raw data for public scrutiny, London Times, 28 Jan 10 (Statement in response from Univ East Anglia | Leaked climate change emails scientist 'hid' data flaws, Guardian, 1 Feb | Statement in response from U East Anglia)

Posted on Thu, 4 Feb 10:

Penn State clears climate researcher on 3 charges; 1 still pending: A Penn State committee Wed cleared climate prof Michael Mann of charges of falsifying data, concealing info or misusing confidential info, but nevertheless called for a further investigation into whether his conduct "deviated from accepted practices". Mann is best known for using tree rings and other indirect measures to reconstruct earth's climate over centuries past and demonstrate that global temperatures shot up during the 20th century, Philadelphia Inquirer (courtesy FresnoBee), 3 Feb 10 (AP--Penn State proceeding with scientist e-mail scrutiny | Penn State U--Inquiry into climate scientist moves to next phase | Guardian/ UK --Controversy behind climate science's "hockey stick" graph)

Robert Shiller: We need to fix plumbing problem for banking system--In a serious financial crisis, banks find that the declining market value of many of their assets leaves them short of capital. They cannot raise much more capital during the crisis, so, in order to restore capital adequacy, they stop making new loans and call in their outstanding loans, thereby throwing the entire economy - if not the entire global economy - into a tailspin. This problem is rather technical in nature, as are its solutions. It is a sort of plumbing problem for the banking system, but we need to fix the plumbing by changing the structure of the banking system itself, says Yale economist, Proj Syndicate (courtesy Gulf Times/ Qatar), 24 Jan 10 (Squam Lake Working Grp--An expedited resolution mechanism for distressed financial firms | Group's other policy papers)

Health ('is wealth') club: World Cancer Day--Are you ready?: Each yr, over 12 million people receive a cancer diagnosis and 7.6 million die of the disease. More than 70% of all cancer deaths occur in low and middle income nations. World Cancer Day is intended to raise awareness of cancer prevention, and the good news is that approx. 40% of cancers are potentially preventable. We invite you to join us in spreading the message that "cancer can be prevented too", Intl Union Against Cancer, 4 Feb 10 (World Health Org | US Cancer Society)

Posted on Wed, 3 Feb 10:

Matthew Slaughter: How to destroy American jobs--Obama's proposals for increasing the tax burden on US-based multinationals would harm the nation's most dynamic companies. The fundamental assumption behind his proposals is that US multinationals expand abroad only to 'export' jobs out of the country. Thus, taxing their foreign operations more would boost tax revenues here and create desperately needed US jobs. This is simply wrong, says Dartmouth economist/ fmr Council Econ Advisers member, Wall St Journal, 3 Feb 10

Strong Chinese growth resumes but increased social spending needed, says report: With the help of massive govt stimulus action, China is now leading the world economy out of recession, acc to OECD's latest Economic Survey of China, an update of its earlier (and 1st) survey of the economy in '05. Already the world's 2nd largest economy, it could well overtake the US to become the leading producer of manufactured goods in the next 5 to 7 yrs. It will be important to ensure that govt savings, now falling in the wake of the crisis, do not revert to their previous, excessively high levels. Public spending should be stepped up to support much needed social reforms in areas such as education, welfare assistance, pensions and health, OECD, 2 Feb 10

Posted on Tue, 2 Feb 10:

UN confirms 55 nations met Copenhagen Accord deadline: The UN confirmed yesterday that 55 nations submitted emission reduction plans to the Copenhagen Accord ahead of the 31 Jan deadline. UN officials said the nations that had completed submissions account for 78% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions, w/ most of the largest emitters, incl US, China, India, EU, Japan, Brazil and SAfrica, having made commitments under the agreement. These were joined by a host of developing nations, incl Ethiopia, Maldives, Sierra Leone and Singapore, BusinessGreen/ UK, 2 Feb 10

Jeffrey Sachs: Rebuilding Haiti--The 10-year plan: The 1st stage in an effective response - the 1st 3 or 4 wks - must focus on rescuing survivors and stabilizing supplies of food, water, medical services, and shelter. After that, the emergency phase will give way to a decades-long struggle for recovery and long-term development. It must avoid a prolonged period of tent cities in which people are mere refugees. But where should displaced people - numbering hundreds of thousands, and perhaps more than a million - live? How should they be provided w/ food, water, health care and shelter? And how can they begin to contribute to the revival of basic econ life?, asks Earth Inst dir, Columbia U, 26 Jan 10 (World Bank Weblog--Factsheet on Haiti)

Recovery seen in private capital flows to emerging markets: A leading global association of financial institutions w/ over 380 members forecast that net private capital flows to emerging markets are likely to rise from $435B in '09 to around $720B this yr and rise further to about $798B in '11. It said that a significant turnaround in net private portfolio equity flows led the recovery in '09. An upswing in net bond flows, driven by both sovereign and corporate borrowers, combined w/ more positive momentum in commercial bank lending and foreign direct investment, are now set to lead growth in overall flows this yr, Inst Intl Finance, 26 Jan 10

Posted on Mon, 1 Feb 10:

Reports from Davos--Selected session summaries, World Economic Forum, 31 Jan 10:

1)   Rebuilding the global economy on a principled foundation | Global Agenda 2010: The View from Davos--with experts from over 70 WEF Global Agenda Councils

2)   IMF head urges caution on winding down econ stimulus | Summers says 4th qtr US GDP report shows Obama policies working

3)   Despite global econ setbacks, partnerships further Millennium Development Goals | Rethinking how to feed the world--with Gates, Kikwete, Kullman, Nguyen, Okonjo-Iweala, Woertz, Midland, and Roy | Brazil's Pres Lula given WEF Global Statesmanship award

4)   Democrats and Republicans meeting in Davos agree financial regulation is imperative | Redesigning financial regulation--with Carstens, Fischer, Gordhan, Serra, Thiam, Trichet, and Eichengreen

5)   The great shift East in the global agenda--with Cheng, Furukawa, Lipsky, Nath, Sands, Abhisit, and Doden | Towards an East Asian Community?--with Ahn, Crean, Naoshima, Nguyen, Pangestu, Abhisit, Yeo, and Mahbubani

Boardroom/ C-suite: The toughest car company of them all--Hyundai smokes the competition:  The automaker's origins date back to the Hyundai Eng. & Constr. Co., (Hyundai means 'modernity' in Korean), which was founded after WW2 and created Hyundai Motor in '67. Thanks to high tariffs that rebuffed foreign manufacturers, the motor co. thrived and was spun off as a separate co. in '98. That same year it acquired a controlling stake in rival Kia, Gradually the 2 cos. are consolidating for economies of scale, but they are keeping the 2 brands separate. How do the Koreans do it? In addition to getting big, Hyundai has gotten good. Once known as a cheap and cheerful brand that offered a comprehensive warranty to make up for mechanical shortcomings, it has become a respected name and a smart buy, Fortune, 5 Jan 10

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