News and Analysis: 19-23 Apr 10 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

Based in: Manila, Philippines

Posted on Fri, 23 Apr 10:

Whither the World Bank and IMF?: Q&A w/ Ctr Global Devt pres Nancy Birdsall and senior fellow Liliana Rojas-Suarez--Q: There has been a lot of talk about increasing developing nations' influence at the Fund and the Bank. Can you update us on the state of play? Do developing nations even care? And what is the single biggest challenge you see to the Bank and the Fund?, CGDev, 20 Apr 10 (Zedillo leads external review of World Bank Grp reform, Yale U, Oct '09 [scroll] | Zedillo discusses World Bank report, Yale Daily News, Oct '09)

Jamie Metzl: Building an Asian Century--As Asia emerges from the global econ crisis faster than the rest of the world, it is increasingly clear that the world's center of gravity is shifting from the Atlantic to the Pacific. Over the past 5 yrs, China's contribution to world GDP growth has steadily increased from one-fifth to one-third, and India's from approximately 6% to 16%. Given their growing footprints on global economics, politics and the environment, it is now impossible to imagine any major intl agreement w/o China, Japan and India on board, says Asia Society exec vice-pres, Guardian (courtesy Asia Soc), 1 July 09

John Lee: Why America will lead the Asian Century--A counter-intuitive view: Not a wk passes w/o a big-picture thinker noting the gradual eclipse of US hegemony in Asia. True, US power will inevitably decline in relative terms as Asian giants such as China and India rise. But as least as far as Asia is concerned, arguments about the end of US hegemony ring hollow, says Hudson Inst visiting fellow/ author of Will China Fail? ('07), Intl Economy, Sep-Nov '09 [pdf]

Posted on Thu, 22 Apr 10:

IMF raises forecast for global growth, sees multispeed recovery: Global growth is forecast at 4.2% for this yr, acc to the latest World Economic Outlook released on 21 Apr. Among mature economies, US is off to a better start than Europe and Japan. Among emerging and developing economies, emerging Asia is leading the recovery, while many emerging European and some Commonwealth of Indep. States are lagging behind. China’s growth is forecast at 10%, w/ India at 8.8%. Sub-Saharan Africa has weathered the crisis well and its recovery is expected to be stronger than in previous global downturns. In the depth of the crisis last yr, world econ activity contracted by 0.6%, IMF Survey Mag, 21 Apr 10

Verandah: Oxburgh report clears controversial Climate Research Unit--Just over 2 mths since the Univ East Anglia announced an independent 'reappraisal of the science' of its Climatic Research Unit's (CRU) key publications, the result is in. The assessment panel released a report [pdf] concluding that CRU's research was honest and fair, even though the statistical methods and bookkeeping skills employed by the scientists there could have been improved. "We found absolutely no evidence of impropriety whatsoever," panel Chair Ron Oxburgh, a fmr geologist and Shell chair, said. All eyes are now turning to a 3rd inquiry that is investigating whether the leaked email are evidence of poor scientific practices, such as improperly withholding data, ScienceInsider, 14 Apr 10

Marcus Noland: Pyongyang tipping point--N Korea likes to project an image of strength to the world. But back home, there is a serious econ crisis playing out that could have long-term repercussions. The crisis began in Nov, when the govt sprang upon the public a confiscatory currency reform that wiped out household saving and the working capital of traders and entrepreneurs. The value of the N Korean won predictably plunged as people abandoned it for foreign currencies and even physical goods - anything that could preserve value. The 2nd shoe dropped a mth later when the state extended its war on privately held capital, banning the use of foreign currencies, says Inst senior fellow, Wall St Journal (courtesy Peterson Inst), 12 Apr 10

Posted on Wed, 21 Apr 10:

Regulating financial system risk key issue in reforms: Fincl regulatory reforms should aim to prevent institutions from being too important to fail, acc to the latest Global Financial Stability Report released in full on 20 Apr. A range of fincl reform proposals are being considered to address systemic risks, and it takes an in-depth look at 2 of them: whether and where to add a systemic-risk oversight function to the regulatory architecture, and how to construct systemic risk-based capital surcharges if policy makers decide to go this route. While not necessarily endorsing their introduction, the analysis provides a methodology to compute such surcharges, IMF Survey Mag, 13 Apr 10 (IMF sees fincl risks still elevated, IMF Web Log, 20 Apr)

Barry Eichengreen: Who should lead the IMF?--The bargain then was that the US could pick the World Bank pres while the Europeans would get the IMF's top slot. But today's world is more multi-polar. It is no longer dominated by the Atlantic economies, so those nations should no longer dictate who holds the top jobs at the 2 Bretton Woods institutions, says UC-Berkeley economist, Proj Syndicate (courtesy Macau Times), 24 Mar 10

Verandah: New giant lizard species discovered--Researchers have discovered a spectacular new species of giant lizard living in the Sierra Madre mountains in Luzon, an island of the Philippines. The brightly colored reptile - which can grow up to 2 meters long - is a kind of monitor lizard previously unknown to science and its discovery is reported in the Royal Soc's Biology Letters of 7 Apr. The lizard - named Varanus bitatawa after the local Agta tribespeople's name for the creature - represents one of the few discoveries of a new large vertebrate species in recent yrs, Royal Society/ UK, 7 Apr 10 (KU grad discovers new lizard in Philippines, Kansan, 14 Apr)

Posted on Tue, 20 Apr 10:

Goldman suit spurs Dems' financial reform bid: Emboldened by the major fraud allegations vs Goldman Sachs, the Obama admin and Senate Democrats said Mon that they will push this wk for a crucial vote on a sweeping overhaul of fincl regulations, daring Republicans to block it and be labeled as caring more about Wall St than Main St. 'This comes down to this basic question: Whose side are you on?' said Sen Banking Cmte Chair Dodd. 'Are you on the side of those who oppose this?' Large fincl institutions and some biz groups, led by the US Chamber of Commerce, oppose key provisions of the legislation and have been lobbying aggressively vs it, Los Angeles Times (courtesy SF Gate), 20 Apr 10 (Long ver.)

Report on emerging entertainment markets of Brazil, Russia, India and China released: A global biz services firm released a report on the media and entertainment landscape in the BRICs. It provides an overview of the latest indicators of market attractiveness, as well as the opportunities, challenges and critical success factors in conducting biz there. Corporate leaders are spending significant time assessing future market opportunities in the BRICs though currently, some of the largest media and entertainment cos. generate less than 10% of their global sales from there, Ernst & Young, 12 Apr 10 (Tune in to emerging entertainment markets: spotlight on the BRICs, w/ exec sum [pdf, 1.6MB])

Democracy put to the test: Developing countries that free themselves from authoritarian govts are often called 'experiments in democracy'. But what happens when a researcher runs an actual field experiment in democracy? A novel study by an MIT economist has provided surprising insights about the impact of democratic govt in the developing world, MIT News, 8 Feb 10

Posted on Mon, 19 Apr 10:

C-Suite/ Boardroom: The new masters of management--30 yrs ago the bosses of the US car industry were shocked to learn that Japan had overtaken the US to become the world's leading car producer. They were even more shocked when they visited Japan and found that the secret of its success did not lie in cheap labor or govt subsidies (their preferred explanations) but in what was rapidly dubbed 'lean manufacturing'. While Detroit slept, Japan had transformed itself from a low-wage economy into a hotbed of biz innovation. Now something comparable is taking place in the developing world, Economist, 15 Apr 10 (The world turned upside down--Innovation in emerging markets)

Galapagos - A different kind of evolution: For yrs tourism in the archipelago seemed like a sure win for inhabitants of the remote islands. Cruise ships would unload tourists, who admired the volcanic landscape and local fauna that inspired explorer Charles Darwin to write his theory of evolution. But for the locals, the Galapagos have also been a source of exclusion and controversy. Few tourists would interact w/ the local pop. or spend money acquiring local products and services. Most of the vegetables sold on the islands, located in the Pacific Ocean nearly 1,000 km west of continental Ecuador, had to be imported because the local produce was insufficient and of poor quality, Inter-Amer Devt Bank, 14 Mar 10

Catalysts of entrepreneurship - Policies for growth: Entrepreneurs are self-motivated and will find oppoutunities for success whether the environment is conducive or not. However, systematic evidence-based policy research can come to the rescue of developing economies, by seeking to clarify the forces that encourage entrepreneurship. These include incentive structure, stakeholders, and future labor force demands. Such research can also help reduce bureaucratic impediments by ensuring good governance models and helping to develop performance indicators. They can also help educate policy makers on best practices in entrepreneurial policy, acc to a recent intl conference, Kauffman-Rand, June '09 [pdf]

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