News and Analysis: 5-9 Apr 10 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

Based in: Manila, Philippines

Posted on Fri, 9 Apr 10:

L Rieffel and R Gilpin: Can econ reform open a peaceful path to ending Myanmar/ Burma's isolation?--Looming challenges could derail Burma's prospects for econ and political stability. These challenges include irrational macroecon policies, failure to ensure all citizens enjoy benefits accrued from natural resources, endemic corruption, a flourishing illicit economy, a dysfunctional financial system and critical infrastructure bottlenecks. Could the economy provide a viable entry point for effective intl assistance to promote peace?, ask Brookings senior fellow and Inst assoc vice-pres, US Inst Peace (Brief), 30 Mar 10 [pdf]

Is China ready to become the next econ superpower?: Views about China seem as volatile as financial markets recently. Last yr, many marveled at the resilience of its economy and its econ superpower destiny. So far this yr, however, predictions about an econ hard landing in China fill more newspaper pages. Yet the economy is almost certain to grow steadily in intl importance. In terms of size, its GDP is already on track to rank behind that of only the US this yr. But stark differences remain bet. China and other top economies. Average income in China is far lower. Its economy depends significantly more on exports. And very little of the intellectual property critical to its high-valued exports originate in the country, Standard & Poor's (courtesy Google), 21 Mar 10

Olive Room: Michael Fairbanks--Rwanda's pres leads an inspiring turnaround: In the aftermath of the genocide, modern courts were incapable of handling the hundreds of thousands of perpetrators. Intl legal advisers were flummoxed. Pres Kagame introduced the traditional 'gacaca' system to give the perpetrators of the genocide the opportunity to tell the truth and ask the community for forgiveness. He even asked those who took farms from killers who fled to return them. The economy was a priority from day one. It had shrunk for 5 yrs before the genocide, says co-founder of a philanthropic foundation run by entrepreneurs, Wash. Post (free registr reqd), 26 Feb 10 (7 April--Intl day of reflection on the '94 genocide in Rwanda | US Inst Peace--Preventing Genocide ('08) | Exec sum, 4pp [pdf])

Posted on Thu, 8 Apr 10:

Kyrgyzstan opposition proclaim interim govt: An opposition coalition in Kyrgyzstan proclaimed an interim govt today in the wake of clashes that left dozens dead nationwide, and said it would rule for 6 mths before calling new elections. Yesterday ended w/ Pres Bakiyev fleeing the capital of the strategic Central Asian state. The riots were the culmination of spiraling protests w/ the opposition demanding Mr Bakiyev’s resignation and accusing his govt of rights violations, authoritarianism and econ mismanagement, Ag. France-Presse (courtesy National/ UAE), 8 Apr 10 (World Bank country brief)

Edmund Phelps: The road to prosperity and sound markets--Govts must shake off the delusion that full recovery is just a matter of pushing buttons. Beginning w/ the astonishingly innovative economies that sprouted up in the 19th century, the tried and true method for gaining high prosperity - for an ample supply of engaging and challenging jobs - has been a system of innovative private enterprise in the biz sector. What govts ought to do is 'stimulate' an innovative economy, not endless roads, wind energy and other building projects. The Ctr on Capitalism and Society (that I chair) is meeting in Berlin, just wks after commemorations of the fall of the Berlin wall, to seek ways to streamline and buttress complex and stumbling economies so that they possess the dynamism that delivers high prosperity, says Nobel Laureate '06, Proj Syndicate (courtesy J Turkish Wkly), 10 Dec 09 (Letter to G20 chair about the 'Post-crisis Economic Policies' meet, Feb '10 [pdf])

Posted on Wed, 7 Apr 10:

Ivailo Izvorski: Why has developing East Asia led the global econ recovery?--Only a few expected in late '08 that East Asia would lead the world economy out of the crisis. Skeptics pointed to the continued dependence of the region on exports to mature economies. And skeptics and believers alike were predicting that all nations in the region would rethink their growth models to focus more on domestic demand rather than exports and investment. What a difference a year and a half makes. Leading the global economy, real GDP in developing East Asia is set to grow 8.7% in '10, up from 7% in '09, acc to the Bank's East Asia and Pacific Update released today, notes WB economist/ report's lead author, World Bank (Web log), 7 Apr 10 GMT

Goldman Sachs response to New York Times article on Europe and credit default swaps: The NYT published a story which makes reference to a report produced by our Securities Div in Aug '09. The report discussed in the NYT's story was neither confidential nor did it contain novel views. Although the NYT story suggests that one of the trading ideas was to buy CDS protection on Greek sovereign debt, the report doesn't mention any nation by name, GS, 10 Mar 10 (NYT--European leaders call for crackdown on derivatives [free registr reqd] | Sherwood--Blame bad managers, not the banking system, Lond Times, Oct '09 | Blankfein--To avoid crises, we need more transparency, FT, Oct '09) [courtesy GS]

P Berkmen, G Gelos, R Rennhack, and J Walsh: Differential impact--The global financial crisis that originated in the mature economies dealt a blow to growth in the rest of the world during '08-'09. Some nations, however, fared better than others. We explain why, based on our study of a sample of 40 emerging markets and a larger sample of 126 developing nations, some - mostly in eastern Europe and central Asia - were hit harder than others by the crisis, say IMF economists, resident rep and asst dir, Finance & Devt, Mar-May '10

Posted on Tue, 6 Apr 10:

Nancy Birdsall: US can give better aid to Haiti--Last wk at a UN conference, donors pledged more than $10 bil. to finance reconstruction and development investments in Haiti. US promised a hefty $1.15 bil. But pledging money is the easy part. US, the lead donor and friend w/ the greatest interest in Haiti's future development, can do much more in 2 ways: its own aid programs can be more effective; and it can take steps beyond aid that are far more critical to long-run prosperity for Haiti's people, says Ctr Global Devt pres, GlobalPost, 6 Apr 10

Robert Zoellick: India could be a new pole of global growth--With India's strong human capital and cutting-edge innovation, it is clear the knowledge and technology content - the real competitive smart-edge of its exports - is going to rise. Its increasing globalization will be driven by the nation becoming a source for some of these specialized products. As it further integrates w/ global production chains, it will do so not by making more of the same, but by making products of new value, says World Bank pres, Hindustan Times/ India, 2 Dec 09 (Knowledge economy of the future: Transforming India's tech educ, 18 Mar 10)

UK parliament committee gently chides climate scientists: A new report on the brouhaha over the hacking of email at the Univ East Anglia's Climate Research Unit is generally sympathetic toward climate scientists accused of withholding data and subverting the peer review process. But the UK House of Commons' sci/ tech cmte also says that the researchers should make all of their evidence for climate change available to global-warming skeptics and the public. Also, neither climate scientists nor their institutions are out of the woods yet. 2 investigations commissioned by the univ are just getting underway, Science Insider, 31 Mar 10 GMT (UK Parliament S&T Cmte's statement and report | Scientific panel to assess Climate Research Unit's findings announced, 22 Mar)

Posted on Mon, 5 Apr 10:

'Failure is good': 'Greed is good' became a popular phrase in the aftermath of the '87 movie Wall Street, implying that the riches of individual financiers were justified by the role those people played initiating large-scale wealth creation throughout society. 2 decades and several financial meltdowns later, that slogan could probably use an update, something gamely attempted by fmr IMF chief economist Simon Johnson in a talk to a packed auditorium on Fri, supporting his new book about the financial crisis in which he lambastes a finance industry lacking a healthy fear of losing money, MIT News, 5 Apr 10 (Q&A w/ Johnson, Feb '10)

Leadership and growth: The basic question of which wields more influence over events - the leader or the times - is an ancient one. The emphasis on one or the other waxes and wanes over the yrs. We do not pretend to solve this long-standing problem here. Rather, we take an eclectic view toward the role of leaders in generating econ growth and development. We focus attention on what we take to be common problems faced by political leaders. In our view, these are fourfold: 1) promoting national unity, 2) building good, solid institutions, 3) choosing innovative and localized policies, and 4) creating political consensus for long-run policy implementation, Commission on Growth and Development, posted Mar '10 [pdf] (Full text)

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