News and Analysis: 24 Oct-4 Nov 11 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

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Posted on Fri, 4 Nov 11:

More Greek drama as confidence vote looms, Times of Malta, 4 Nov 11:
Greece is braced for another day of political chaos today as PM Papandreou faces a knife-edge confidence vote that could torpedo his gov't and deepen Europe's debt crisis. Under intense pressure from fellow EU leaders to implement a massive bailout package to prevent his nation going bankrupt, the PM has hinted he may step down in favor of a national unity gov't. On the eve of the vote, he dramatically backed down from a shock pledge to put a hard-fought EU bailout deal to a referendum that had enraged the EU and sent markets tumbling

Bill Gates: Why am I in Cannes for the G20?, Weblog at Gates Found., 1 Nov 11:
This week, I'm going to stand in front of the leaders of the largest 20 nations on earth and ask them to keep their promises - and to re-commit to helping the poorest people on earth. How on earth did I get here? Well, first off, I was asked. French Pres Sarkozy, on behalf of the G20, invited me to prepare a report (exec sum here) about creative ways to find more money for dev't aid. In this time of crisis for the world economy, I'm grateful that the summit is setting aside time to discuss dev't assistance to the world's poorest people (A plan to assist the world's poor, Wash. Post)

Think tank ranks rich nations on their aid to developing world, Ctr Global Dev't, 1 Nov 11 [PDF]:
Which wealthy nations are helping poor ones most? Rich and poor nations are linked in many ways. Each year, the Commitment to Development Index scores wealthy govts on helping poor nations via 7 linkages: aid, trade, investment, migration, environment, security, and technology. This year, Sweden comes in 1st, while close behind are Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands, followed by the US

Posted on Wed, 2 Nov 11:

Greek debt mess an unwanted test for G20, Reuters, 1 Nov 11 [courtesy Ctr Int'l Govn Innov]:
The Group of 20 always faced long odds at its summit this week on making much of a difference to the resolution of the euro-zone debt crisis. After the shock announcement of a referendum in Greece on its new bailout deal, the mission now looks impossible. The G20 was designated in '09 as the steering committee for the world economy and earned its spurs by coordinating a fiscal stimulus to cushion the blow of the global financial crisis. But 2 years on, the unforeseen twist in Greek politics risks relegating the G20 to a group of bystanders - not the outcome French Pres Sarkozy wanted when he put forward a grand scheme to reshape the global monetary order during his year as G20 chair

Iceland's recovery - Can the lessons be applied elsewhere?, IMF Survey Mag, 24 Oct 11:
As the 1st nation to experience the full force of the global econ crisis, Iceland is now held up as an example by some of how to overcome deep econ dislocation without undoing the social fabric. In Oct '08, its 3 main banks - which made up almost the entire financial system - had just collapsed within a week of each other. Today, 3 years later, it is worth reflecting on how far a nation of just 320,000 people has come since those dark days (Iceland's unorthodox policies suggest alternative way out of crisis | Iceland's recovery-Distilling the lessons | How Iceland recovered from its near-death experience)

Eswar Prasad: G20 - Skidding off the road to recovery, Brookings Inst, Oct '11 [PDF]:
Leaders of the major advanced economies in the G20 face dire econ circumstances and have little room for domestic policy maneuver. A series of adverse shocks, coupled with political wrangling that has stymied effective policy making and added to uncertainty, has crippled growth in advanced economies. Emerging markets have kept their end of the bargain by maintaining strong growth so far, but the battle vs domestic inflation and weakness in major export markets are beginning to affect growth as well, says Inst senior fellow/ Cornell U prof

Posted on Mon, 31 Oct 11:

Top 10 key population trends on Earth with 7 billion, EarthSky, 30 Oct 11:
Humanity took until 1800 to reach its 1st billion people. We added 1 bln in just the past 12 years. 31 Oct 11 marks a milestone in global population: 7 bln humans. That's acc to projections by the UN. We interviewed Joel Cohen, Populations Lab head at Rockefeller U and Columbia U. He explained the top 10 population trends in a world with 7 bln. Many continue to face issues of dire poverty. The population is aging. For the 1st time, more than half the world's women live in nations where the reproduction rate is below the replacement level

How's life? - Measuring well-being, OECD Observer, 13 Oct 11:
Have you ever had the feeling that economists and govts speak about wealth and growth in a way that doesn't always chime with your own everyday experience? Take gross domestic product, or GDP. This is the generally accepted way to measure econ growth (or lack of it), but it provides little if any insight into overall levels of life satisfaction. Some activities that increase GDP correspond to a reduction in peoples' well-being (as in the case of higher transport costs due to congestion and long commutes). For years, policy makers have hunted for broader measures of well-being (OECD launches new report on measuring well-being)

Taking the long view - Q&A with Harvard's business historian Niall Ferguson, View Mag, 2011:
In trying to make sense of the present, Ferguson gives a great deal of thought to the past - both the past as it was and the past as it might have been. Q: a) In your new book, Civilization: The West and the Rest, you use a computer software metaphor to make the case that global Western dominance resulted from what you call 6 killer applications. Would you explain? b) Does the West still have exclusivity regarding these applications, or are other cultures challenging it? c) You define yourself as a historian rather than an economist, though your specialty is econ history. How does that differentiate your perspectives on these and other matters?

Posted on Fri, 28 Oct 11:

Euro zone frees Greece of half its debts, Der Spiegel, 27 Oct 11:
After nearly 11 hours of talks, Europe's leaders reached a breakthrough on Thu morning. The euro-zone states have concluded a deal that will see banks give Greece a 50% debt haircut and govts provide billions of euros in taxpayer money for the bailout of the common currency. However, details remain vague about plans to leverage the euro backstop fund (Q&A - Europe bailout plan brings hope as well as risks, AP | The deal - what it means, Irish Times) [courtesy Star-Telegram]

Broad-based growth can counter inequality, instability - Stiglitz, IMF Survey Mag, 11 Oct 11:
Countries should strive to achieve high, broad-based growth in order to avoid potential political instability triggered by increasing levels of inequality, Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz told a Wash. confab, which discussed the consequences of commodity price volatility on low-income nations. The topic of inclusive growth as a policy to tackle the increasing levels of inequality was also debated at length. He explained that while a nation's GDP might be increasing, it does not necessarily mean that life is getting better for all its citizens

Kenneth Rogoff: 2012 elections portend even greater volatility, FT, 3 Oct 11 [courtesy Harvard]:
The end of next year will mark a once in 20-year overlap of a pres'l election in the US with a leadership transition in China. France also chooses its pres in the spring of next year, Germany its chancellor later in '13. Unfortunately, election year pressures threaten to complicate an already very difficult and unpredictable policy dynamic, esp. as the European crisis goes from bad to worse. Ordinarily, a prospective clumping of elections might portend a classic political budget cycle. It is a different story today, says fmr IMF chief economist/ Deutsche Bank financial econ prize '11 awardee

Posted on Wed, 26 Oct 11:

Douglas Elliott: Euro crisis summit - More progress, more disappointment, Weblog at Brookings Inst, 24 Oct 11:
It is good that the Europe's leaders are trying to comprehensively tackle the problems, but the responses are weakened considerably by political constraints and compromises. Gov't leaders are unwilling to increase their nat'l commitments to the European Financial Stability Facility beyond the previously agreed 440 bln euros, which is clearly inadequate to reassure markets, esp. since much of that is already committed. Thus, they are looking for ways to lever those funds to get closer to the 2 trillion euros or so of capacity that is really needed. It appears this will be done by providing guarantees or insurance on a portion of the value of bonds issued by troubled euro-zone nations, says Inst fellow

The coming clash of the middle classes - Q&A with Carnegie's Int'l Econ senior associate Moises Naim, Carnegie Endowment, 19 Sep 11:
The middle class is shrinking in advanced nations and swelling in poor ones, feeding social and political instability as govts struggle to ensure that living standards continue to meet expectations. Q: What will be the main cause of future conflicts in the world? Where do we see clashes between econ classes today? Can poor nations contain the political explosiveness of growing middle classes? What are the int'l implications of the clash of the middle classes? Where will conflicts likely occur in the future?

Global trends - Fourth quarter, Eurasia Group/ PwC, Sep '11 [PDF, 1.4MB]:
The extraordinary breadth and depth of the current worldwide econ turmoil and its gradual stabilization create new uncertainties in int'l and local political environments. Now, more than ever, it is crucial to understand emerging global trends: 1) Brave new world - Political risks threaten global confidence and growth; 2) The Euro zone - An enduring but unhappy union; 3) More trade-offs for foreign firms entering the China market; 4) Political risks are on the rise in the mining sector; and 5) The African consumer class is changing the business landscape

Posted on Mon, 24 Oct 11:

UN hunger estimate under review, Bridges Weekly Trade News, 12 Oct 11:
The recent State of Food Insecurity annual report did not release its anticipated figures on undernourishment in '10 due to an ongoing methodological review. The report's estimates are among the most commonly cited to assess the scale of hunger around the world. Another recent assessment, the Int'l Food Policy Research Inst's Global Hunger Index, warned that the worst incidence of hunger is concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, describing 26 nations as having alarming or extremely alarming figures (New global hunger report calls for action to curtail high, volatile prices and protect the poor)

Fred Bergsten: An overlooked way to create jobs, New York Times, 28 Sep 11 [courtesy Peterson Inst]:
It is clear that the US economy can no longer rely on consumer borrowing, housing bubbles, gov't deficits, and super-low interest rates. The nation must start selling much more to other nations, esp. China and other emerging markets that are growing at 6% or more per year. Pres Obama has set a goal of doubling the nation's exports over 5 years. But his admin has done little to achieve that goal, which is inadequate to begin with. For one thing, the focus should not be the level of exports but the overall deficit - the difference between what we import from abroad and what we sell overseas, says Inst dir (Services can pace new export boom, 18 Oct)

Middle East needs jobs, governance to fulfill promise of Arab Spring, IMF Survey Mag, 26 Sep 11:
The Middle East needs more jobs, better governance, and a strong civil society in order for the transformation that began with the Arab Spring movement to thrive in the long term, panelists said at a seminar in Wash. A distinguished panel of speakers from the Mideast, N Africa, and Pakistan acknowledged the region's progress toward building free and democratic societies. However, they cautioned that this progress must be accompanied by urgent econ reforms if the change is to be lasting

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