News and Analysis: 28 Feb-11 Mar 11 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

Based in: Manila, Philippines

Posted on Fri, 11 Mar 11:

Pacific nations prepare for tsunami after huge quake off Japan: An earthquake near the east coast of Honshu, Japan, with preliminary magnitude 8.9 has triggered a potentially large tsunami now propagating across the Pacific Ocean. The quake, possibly the strongest in Japan's modern history, originated some 400 km north of Tokyo, at 24 km depth. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Hilo, Hawaii has issued a tsunami alert for the entire region. At present, tsunami warning is in effect for more than 20 nations,   Weblog at Nature, 11 Mar 11 (Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

IMF triggers debate on crisis lessons: The IMF is encouraging a wholesale re-examination of macroeconomic policy in the wake of the global crisis, starting with a high profile conference in Wash. The confab co-hosts are 4 noted economists: Olivier Blanchard, David Romer, and Nobel Laureates Michael Spence and Joseph Stiglitz. They are joined by a group of world-class panelists, among them 2 other Nobelists - George Akerlof and Robert Solow,   IMF Survey Mag, 8 Mar 11 (Claessens and Pazarbasioglu: No end in sight - Early lessons on crisis management, Weblog at IMF, 9 Mar | Vienna meeting reaffirms cooperation of IMF, ILO, trade unions, 4 Mar)

An open letter on capital controls to US Secy of State Clinton, Treasury Secy Geithner and Trade Rep. Kirk: We write to express concern regarding the extent to which capital controls are restricted in US trade and investment treaties. We recommend that future US free trade agreements and bilateral investment treaties permit gov'ts to deploy capital controls as part of a broader menu of policy options to prevent and mitigate financial crises,   257 Economists, 31 Jan 11 (An open letter on capital controls, Presidents of 17 business assns., 7 Feb | A response to the 17 business assns.) [PDF, courtesy Inst Policy Studies and Tufts U]

Posted on Wed, 9 Mar 11:

Joseph Stiglitz: The Mauritius miracle--Suppose someone were to describe a small nation that provided free education through university for all of its citizens, transportation for school children, and free health care - incl heart surgery - for all. You might suspect that such a nation is either phenomenally rich or on the fast track to fiscal crisis. After all, rich nations in Europe have increasingly found that they cannot pay for university educ, and are asking young people and their families to bear the costs. For its part, the US has never attempted to give free college for all, and it took a bitter battle just to ensure that America’s poor get access to health care, says Nobel Laureate '01/ Columbia U prof,   Proj Syndicate (courtesy Mega/ Mauritius), 9 Mar 11

Interview--Larry Summers: The fmr econ adviser to Pres Obama is back teaching at Harvard, where he had a tumultuous run as university pres. Q: You just gave your first lecture of the semester, titled 'The Recent Financial Crisis'. What do you want kids in the back row to remember? What did you make of your cameo in the Facebook movie 'The Social Network'? Will the women-in-science imbroglio ever let up? You were greeted by a protest bake sale in Cambridge last month,   Newsweek, 6 Mar 11

Int’l Women’s Day - Report details progress in girls’education, warns of waning political attention--Today, 67 million children are not in school, more than half of them girls. To celebrate the 100th anniversary of Int'l Women's Day, an int'l partnership dedicated to ensuring quality basic educ for all children launches a new report to highlight the fundamental importance of girls' education for econ and social development. The report warns that in developing nations, too many girls are not in school, and many girls face continuing health risks, harassment, and danger just walking to class. It also reviews the 'girl-friendly' policy interventions, illustrated by nations such as Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Ghana and Yemen,   Education For All-Fast Track Initiative, 3 Mar 11 (Nordic nations top gender gap index while France slips and US climbs, WEForum, Dec ‘10)

Posted on Mon, 7 Mar 11:

Amid turmoil, a key voice urges calm: As US lawmakers trade sound bites over high oil prices and Mideast unrest, one influential expert is seeking to allay cause for overreaction. "The market is responding to fear," Daniel Yergin, chair of IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates said. "Oil prices are not signaling a shortage of oil, it's signaling political risk." He said Pres Obama should not tap into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which contains a full capacity of 727 mln barrels of oil. That puts him at odds with key Democratic lawmakers, National Journal, 7 Mar 11

Residual brilliance--A conversation with Nobel Laureate '87 Robert Solow: He used his model to separate out the sources of growth among capital, labor and technological progress. And he showed that technical change, rather than capital accumulation, was the main driver of long-run growth. This 'technical change residual' -- so-called because it is the part of growth that cannot be explained by identifiable factors such as capital accumulation or labor force growth -- would forever bear his name. Regardless, he readily acknowledges his intellectual debt to Arthur Lewis's work on growth in labor-surplus nations. He is also quick to give credit to Trevor Swan, who independently arrived at much the same model at almost exactly the same time, Finance & Development, Mar-May '11

Ashley Lenihan: Look beyond growth for true prosperity [scroll]--Frustrated by stagnant growth in the US and Europe, investors are set to bet record amounts of money on emerging markets, esp. the BRICs, due to their fast growth. But growth alone does not ensure prosperity. Leaders of the BRICs must also improve their social infrastructures, incl their health and education systems. That is one lesson of the Prosperity Index, which analyzes econ and social indicators to rank nations acc to their prosperity, says Inst senior fellow, South China Morning Post/ HK (courtesy Legatum Inst/ UK), Dec '10 [PDF] (Exec sum | Rankings)

Posted on Fri, 4 Mar 11:

Chavez Libya talks offer rejected: US, France and local opposition activists have brushed aside Venezuela's proposal for mediation to end the violence in Libya. Venezuelan Pres Chavez, an ally of Gaddafi, has proposed creating an int’l peace mission with forces from friendly nations to try to mediate the unrest gripping Libya. A US State Dept's spokesman repeated US calls for Gaddafi to step down from power in the face of the 3-week-old uprising that he has tried to crush with his security forces. France also rejected Chavez’s offer and dismissed talk of any solution that would allow the embattled leader to stay in power, Al Jazeera, 3 Mar 11 (Gaddafi accepts Chavez talks offer)

N Birdsall and F Fukuyama: The post-Washington consensus -- Development after the crisis: Why has the reaction in developing nations been much less extreme after this crisis than it was after the Great Depression? For one, they blame the US for it. Many in the developing world agreed with fmr Brazilian Pres Lula da Silva when he said, 'This is a crisis caused by people, white with blue eyes'. If the global financial crisis put any development model on trial, it was the free-market or neoliberal model, which emphasizes a small state, deregulation, private ownership, and low taxes. Few developing nations consider themselves to have fully adopted that model, say Ctr Global Dev't pres and Stanford senior fellow, Foreign Affairs (courtesy Stanford U), Mar-Apr '11

Posted on Tue, 1 Mar 11:

Gaddafi forces mass near Tunisia as int'l pressure rises: Forces loyal to the Libyan leader were massed in the west of the nation on Tue, residents said, and the US said it was moving warships and air forces closer to Libya. Residents feared pro-Gaddafi forces were preparing an attack to regain control of a town about 60 km from the Tunisian border in western Libya from protesters seeking an end to Gaddafi's rule. On Mon, the US moved warships and aircraft closer to Libya and froze $30 bln in assets, ramping up pressure on what a top US envoy called a 'delusional' Gaddafi to relinquish power,   Reuters (courtesy Jerusalem Post), 1 Mar 11

Amartya Sen: Growth and other concerns--I was awakened early one morning by someone who said he was enormously enjoying my ongoing debate on econ growth in India. I wondered what on earth he could be talking about, since I have not been involved in any such debate. Upon reflection, I managed to resurrect the distant memory of having said in passing, in a meeting in Delhi in Dec, that it is silly to be obsessed about overtaking China in the growth rate of Gross National Product (GNP), while not comparing ourselves with China in other respects, like education, basic health, or life expectancy, says Nobel Laureate ’98/ Harvard prof,   Hindu/ India, 14 Feb 11

Hall of Fame: K Arrow, D Bernheim, M Feldstein, D McFadden, J Poterba and R Solow--The Top 20 articles in the past 100 years: The Top 20 committee was appointed and given the task of selecting the 'Top 20' articles published in this publication during its first 100 years. We were looking for 20 admirable and important articles. Our early ballots showed an encouraging unanimity, esp. among the leading candidates. We very quickly converged on the Top 15. Then, there were the occasional differences of opinion, only to be expected from a group with diverse interests. Here is our final list, arranged alphabetically, along with a brief reminder about each,   Amer Economic Rev, Feb ’11 [PDF] {Ed.'s note: Several articles related to development economics are included among the Top 20}

Posted on Mon, 28 Feb 11:

Food prices spiral in Libya capital amid crackdown:   The West moved to send its 1st concrete aid to Libya's rebellion in the east of the nation, hoping to give it the momentum to oust Gadhafi. But the Libyan leader's regime clamped down in its stronghold in the capital, where residents said food prices have skyrocketed.  One resident told AP that the price of rice, a main staple, has gone up 500% amid the crisis, reaching the equivalent of $40 for a 5-kg (10-lb) bag. Bakeries are limited to selling 5 loaves of bread per family, and most butcher shops are closed, she said,   AP (courtesy WHK/ US), 28 Feb 11

Coffee/Tea Room: Seoul's airport is best in the world--SKorea's Seoul (Incheon) int'l airport has taken the top customer service award for the 6th straight year as best airport worldwide, with Singapore, Hong Kong, Beijing, and Shanghai (Pudong) garnering 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th places for '10, respectively. The annual Airport Service Quality passenger survey measures customer feedback on a range of service delivery parameters that track the customer experience at an airport from the moment of arrival to the departure gate,   Airports Council Int'l/ Canada, 15 Feb 11

'Inside Job' - How bankers caused the financial crisis: The film 'Inside Job' brilliantly exposes the corruption in US banking that led to the '08 crash. We ask 4 bankers for their verdict on this damning indictment of their world,   Guardian/ UK, 17 Feb 11 (Krugman: 'Inside Job', Weblog at NY Times, Dec '10 | Watch 4 clips from the film, Moviefone/ UK) ['Inside Job' was awarded today the Oscar for documentary feature--Ed.]

From our archive (18 Oct 10):  Charles Ferguson--Larry Summers and the subversion of economics: The Obama admin recently announced that Summers is resigning as director of the National Economic Council and will return to Harvard early next year. His imminent departure raises several questions: Who will replace him? What will he do next? But more important, it's a chance to consider the hugely damaging conflicts of interest of the senior academic economists who move among univs, gov't and banking, says director of the new documentary 'Inside Job' and the '07 docu 'No End in Sight: The American occupation of Iraq', Chronicle of Higher Educ Review, 3 Oct 10; and

Frederic Mishkin: The economist's reply to the ''Inside Job"--"You ought to be in pictures" is something no one has ever said to me. And as one of a number of economists making uncomfortable cameo appearances in the new Hollywood docu, 'Inside Job', I now know why. In July '09, I agreed to be interviewed on camera for a film that was presented to me as a thoughtful examination of the factors leading up to the '08 global econ collapse. About 5 minutes after the microphone was clipped to my lapel, however, it became clear that my role was predetermined - and I would not be wearing a white hat, says fmr Federal Reserve Board member/ Columbia U prof, Economists' Forum at FT, 8 Oct 10 (Filmmaker Ferguson replies | Sony Pictures Classics--Inside Job)

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