News and Analysis: 10-20 May 11 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

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Posted on Fri, 20 May 11:

IMF chief must be chosen quickly - OECD chief,   Dow Jones Newswires, 20 May 11 [courtesy Nasdaq]:
Shareholders of the IMF should break with tradition and appoint at its helm a candidate from a developing country, to reflect the shift in global wealth, Angel Gurria, sec-gen of the Org for Econ Cooperation and Dev’t, said Fri. He said the new IMF chief had to be chosen on merit, stressing this was a commitment of the Group of 20 industrialized and emerging economies. "Merit is more important than nationality," Gurria said. Also, this poses the question of whether the IMF's number two post should be an American

Moot Court: Anatole Kaletsky--Rush to judgment hurts democracy - Does anyone have the right to assume that DSK is guilty?,   Times of London, 18 May 11 [courtesy Australian]:
It was only 3 weeks ago that DSK told the French daily Liberation that he faced 3 big personal hurdles in his campaign to become France's pres: "Money, women and being a Jew." He then volunteered a hypothetical example of the sort of charge that could bring him down: "A woman raped in a parking lot who is promised half a million euros to make up her story." The point of invoking the presumption of innocence for Strauss-Kahn is not merely to restate a self-righteous platitude that is habitually ignored, usually by the global media and the US judicial system, says Times editor-at-large/ author of Capitalism 4.0: The birth of a new economy in the aftermath of crisis (2010)

US, Hong Kong are the most competitive nations,   IMD/ Switz., 17 May 11:
US and Hong Kong are ranked the most competitive nations, acc to the Swiss business school IMD’s World Competitiveness Yearbook 2011. They are joined by Singapore, Sweden and Switzerland in the top 5 rankings. In adition, IMD released its 1st Gov't Efficiency Gap results, which compares a country's gov't and business efficiency to determine whether countries have "the gov't they deserve"

Posted on Wed, 18 May 11:

US Treasury chief calls on IMF to replace DSK,   Euronews, 18 May 11:
IMF deputy dir Lipsky stepped into the breach after his boss was arrested last weekend. Now some think a European might not be the best person to oversee a global economy increasingly driven by emerging powers in Asia and LatAm. "We would really hope to see a change, in the sense that the next person should be selected on merit and that the Europeans should realize that while they are the biggest shareholders, they are also the biggest debtors now, so they no longer have the right to nominate that person," said Daniel Gros, head of the Ctr for European Policy Studies (Appointing the next IMF managing director, Ctr Global Dev't/ US | Europe and Asia set for battle over top IMF post, Der Spiegel)

Heading for the right choice? A professional approach to selecting the IMF chief,   A Report by 21 NGOs, 6 Apr 11 [PDF]:
The IMF has committed itself to ending European dominance of the selection of its chief, and introducing an open, merit-based and transparent process. This sets out 3 key elements to ensuring a successful process: a focus on selecting the best candidate available; a clear, fair, and transparent process; and the legitimacy gained from the backing of a majority of nations as well as IMF voting shares. Co-authored by: ActionAid, Afrodad, Bond, Bretton Woods Project, Cafod, CRBM, Christian Aid, CIDSE, 11.11.11. Halifax Initiative, Eurodad, Jubilee Debt Campaign, Forum Syd, New Rules for Global Finance, Norwegian Forum for Environ. and Dev't, Oxfam, Social Justice Cmte of Montreal, Norwegian Coalition for Debt Cancellation, World Dev't Movement, Third World Network and Weed

Emerging market growth poles are redefining global economy,   World Bank, 17 May 11:
By 2025, 6 major emerging economies - Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, S Korea and Russia - will account for more than half of all global growth, and the int'l monetary system will likely no longer be dominated by a single currency, acc to a new report, Global Dev't Horizons 2011: Multipolarity - The New Global Economy. Emerging economies that used to rely on technological adaptation and external demand to grow will have to make structural changes to sustain their growth momentum through productivity gains and robust domestic demand

Posted on Mon, 16 May 11:

In scandal, an opportunity for IMF change, by Kevin Carmichael, Globe and Mail/ Canada, 15 May 11:
Dominique Strauss-Kahn's tenure as IMF chief coincided with fundamental shifts in global econ power to emerging markets from the US and Europe. However, whether there truly is a new world order will be revealed by what happens next. Mr. Strauss-Kahn is denying the charges and his wife said that she doesn't "for a second" believe the accusations. Even if he's not guilty as alleged, is this distraction too great at this moment in the IMF's history? (IMF statement)

Yasheng Huang: Rethinking the Beijing Consensus, Asia Policy/ US, Jan '11 [exec sum, PDF]:
The term 'Beijing Consensus' was coined in '04 by Joshua Ramo, a UK Foreign Policy Ctr analyst. His book had the ambitious goal of debunking the famous doctrine of the 'Washington Consensus' and provide an alternative framework. In the wake of the deepest recession in the West since '29, many Western as well as Chinese analysts have been quick to pronounce the death of free markets, says MIT prof (Getting the China story right, MIT Spectrum, Aug '09)

Study predicts a strong future for int'l capital-raising in emerging markets, City of London Corp, Oct '10:
The future prospects for capital-raising from emerging market companies seeking equity finance for long-term growth are strong, acc to a recent report, Emerging Markets - Int'l Capital Raising Trends [PDF]. It highlights how a combination of infrastructure development, increasing domestic consumption, privatization and robust post-crisis econ growth will fuel demand for investment capital among these nations. The report, which focuses on Russia, Brazil, Mexico, S Africa and India, acknowledges the increasing sophistication of domestic capital markets but also cites the advantages of int'l equity markets

Posted on Fri, 13 May 11:

Int'l Energy Agency sees oil bulls still running, for now,   AFP, 13 May 11 [courtesy Daily Times/ Pakistan]:
Bulls in the oil market still have room to run around a price of $110 per barrel but growth of global oil demand is set to ease, the IEA - the energy monitoring arm of the OECD - said on Thu, tipping the see-saw price down again. The new estimates assume that growth of the global economy would slow from 4.8% last year to 4.3% this year. Prices of above $100 had occurred only since Feb and it would take time for the effects to become 'entrenched'

Dani Rodrik: A parable for the world economy - The globalization paradox,   Weblog at Harvard, 22 Apr 11:
This is an attempt to state my book's central argument in the form of a bedtime story: Once upon a time, there was a little fishing village at the edge of a lake. The villagers were poor, living off the fish they caught and the clothing they sewed. They had no contact with the other inland villages, which were miles away and reached only after days of travel through a dense forest. Life for the villagers took a turn for the worse when the stock of fish in the lake plummeted, narrates Harvard prof (Peterson Inst book forum | The economics of a parable, explained | Comments by Inst senior fellows Gary Hufbauer and William Cline)

Global FDI outflows rose in '10, still well short of '07 peak,   Global Investment Trends Monitor/ Unctad, 27 Apr 11:
Last year, global Foreign Direct Investment flows increased only marginally. This quarter's Monitor [PDF] now looks at outward FDI. Last year saw a 13% rise of global outward FDI to more than $1.3 trillion, although still 40% short of the record level achieved in '07. The clear upward trend in outflows confirms the general observation that FDI bottomed out last year. Reinvested earnings drove the recovery of global outward FDI while equity investments remained sluggish

Posted on Wed, 11 May 11:

Barry Eichengreen: Imagining a world without the dollar,   Washington Post, 30 Apr 11:
The dollar doesn't have much clout these days.  Economists are debating the end of the era of the dollar, while news orgs paint it as a 98-pound weakling. Our so-called 'fiat' currency, backed only by the full faith and credit of the gov't, no longer commands respect. So wouldn't we be better off without it? Imagine you woke up tomorrow and the dollar had vanished. The Fed was out of the business of supplying money. How would you go about your affairs?, asks UC Berkeley prof

R Dobbs and J Remes: Navigating Asia's new urban jungles,   Wall Street Jnl, 13 Apr 11 [courtesy McKinsey]:
Everyone agrees that Asia is urbanizing rapidly and that this trend will have a dramatic impact on the region's econ dev't. But unearthing tangible biz opportunities in those markets will not be straightforward.  There are more Asian cities than outsiders tend to realize. Everyone has heard of Mumbai and Delhi, Beijing and Shanghai. But Johore Bahru in Malaysia, or Medan in Indonesia? The key to tapping urban wealth in Asia will be to look beyond the 1st-tier megacities, say McK Global Inst dir and senior fellow (Mapping the economic power of cities)

The global financial centers index - Top 10,   Here Is The City/ UK, Mar '11:
The latest (9th) edition of the twice-yearly Global Financial Centers Index, covering 75 financial centers, has been published recently by the Z/Yen Group. The top 4 are London, NY, Hong Kong and Singapore. Asia continues to exhibit enhanced competitiveness, with 8 centers in the top 20 (vs 6 North American centers and 5 European ones). Despite Dubai's widely publicized problems it still holds top position in the Mideast

Posted on Tue, 10 May 11:

Summit of world's poorest nations opens in Istanbul, AFP, 10 May 11 [courtesy Daily Times/ Pakistan]:

A UN summit with 48 leaders of the world's Least Developed Countries began in Istanbul Mon to discuss a new 10-year aid plan to help lift nations out of poverty. LDCs are defined as those with a per capita income of less than $745. LDCs include 33 states from Africa, 14 from Asia plus Haiti. The new Istanbul Action Program is being negotiated in the conference after the expiry of the former Brussels plan in '10. The UN-backed conference takes place every 10 years. France hosted the 1st two in '81 and '90, while the 3rd was held in Brussels in '01 (UN opens forum on unlocking econ potential of world's poorest nations | Econ diversification vital to boost poorest nations - UN report | Least developed countries in position to improve access to medicines through local production - Unctad report | Confab Web site)

Greece considers exit from euro zone, Der Spiegel/ Germany, 6 May 11:
Greek econ problems are massive, with protests vs the gov't being held almost daily. Now the Greek PM apparently feels he has no other option: This publication has obtained info from German gov't sources knowledgeable of the situation in Athens indicating that the Greek gov’t is considering abandoning the euro and reintroducing its own currency. One year after the crisis broke out, the development represents a potentially existential turning point for the European monetary union - regardless of which alternative is ultimately decided upon for dealing with the Greek crisis ('The only real option left for Greece is debt restructuring', 9 May)

Laura Tyson: To combat 'growth deficit', invest in R&D while cutting elsewhere, Weblog at Ctr Amer Progress, Dec '10:
Recent discussions of US econ policy have focused on the need for more fiscal and monetary stimulus to boost the pace of recovery, and on the need for a credible multiyear plan to reduce the federal gov't deficit. In addition to strengthening aggregate demand and easing the current 'jobs deficit', the nation also faces a 3rd deficit that threatens future prosperity and is often overlooked: a growth deficit. Growth has slowed sharply as a result of the recession and there are several reasons to be worried that the econ's long-run growth rate will be lower even after the econ has fully recovered, says fmr chair of the US pres.'s Council of Econ Advisers / fmr dean of the London Bus. School (Govts' role in economy at heart of debts, deficits debate, IMF Survey Mag, 18 Apr 11

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