News and Analysis: 18-29 Nov 2013 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

Based in: Manila, Philippines

Posted on Fri, 29 Nov 13:

Protests exacerbate Thailand's political divide, Asia Foundation (blog), by J Brandon, 20 Nov 13:
For the past month, thousands of protestors have gathered in Bangkok to protest a controversial amnesty bill that was crafted to absolve anyone who may have engaged in illegal activities, incl the exiled fmr PM Thaksin Shinawatra. What started as anti-amnesty bill demonstrations have morphed into protests to get rid of the governing Pheu Thai party of PM Yingluck Shinawatra, writes foundation's program dir

Jeff Frankel: The latest on the dollar's international currency status, Harvard U (blog), 26 Nov 13:
Most people know that the general trend in the dollar's role as an intl currency has been slowly downward since '76. Its intl use as a currency is below where it was during the heyday of the Bretton Woods era (1945-71). But few are aware of what the most recent numbers show, writes member of NBER Biz Cycle Dating Cmte, which officially declares recessions / Harvard prof

Evacuation saves whole island from Typhoon Haiyan, United Nations, 15 Nov 13:
The prompt evacuation of 1,000 people from a tiny island that had all 500 houses destroyed by Typhoon Haiyan (local name: Yolanda) saved the entire population, acc. to a local leader. The fmr mayor of San Francisco, Cebu Province, said years of work to strengthen community preparedness and reduce disaster risk prevented a catastrophe (Oxfam's Goldring: Learning lessons in the Philippines, Huff Post)

Posted on Wed, 27 Nov 13:

An Achilles' heel -- Inequality threatens Asia's growth miracle, Finance & Development, by R Balakrishnan & assoc, Dec '13:
Over the past 25 years, Asia has grown faster than any other region of the world. However, Asia's fortunes are threatened by a surge in inequality that has accompanied that growth. Paradoxically, the same growth that reduced absolute poverty has created a widening wedge between haves and have-nots (An effective but unpopular way to reduce inequality)

Krugman vs Stiglitz on what's holding back the recovery, BBC News, by L Yueh, 21 Nov 13:
Two of the leading economists in the world disagree over whether inequality hampers the econ recovery. It relates primarily to the US where the top 1% has captured 95% of the income gained since the financial crisis. The main cause of the slow recovery is certainly worth knowing. I sat down with 2 Nobel Laureates, Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz, regarding the issue, writes its chief biz correspondent

Michael Spence: What's stopping robust recovery?, Project Syndicate, 19 Nov 13:
The growth map of the global economy is relatively clear. The US is in a partial recovery, with growth at 1.5-2% and lagging employment. Europe as a whole is barely above zero growth, with large variations among countries. China's growth, meanwhile, is leveling off at 7%, with other developing nations preparing for higher interest rates, writes Nobel Laureate '01 / NYU prof

Posted on Mon, 25 Nov 13:

John Lipsky: How we lost faith in economic policies, WEForum (blog), 15 Nov 13:
It's clear that people have lost confidence in econ policy--you only have to look at the dearth of new investment and the weak re-employment rates in virtually all mature economies since the crisis to see that. So it's not surprising that 10% of over 1,500 respondents to the 'Survey on the Global Agenda' mentioned econ troubles as the most pressing emerging issue for 2014, writes fmr No.2 at the IMF

Dani Rodrik: The real heroes of the global economy, Project Syndicate, 13 Nov 13:
The role models that others should emulate are nations that have done relatively well while running only small external imbalances. Nations like Austria, Canada, Philippines, Lesotho, and Uruguay cannot match the world's growth champions, because they do not over-borrow or sustain a mercantilist econ model. But without them, the world economy would be even less manageable than it already is, writes Inst Advanced Study prof

Institute launches project to reform how economics is taught to univ students, Inst New Econ Thinking, 11 Nov 13 [PDF]:
In response to widespread discontent among students, employers and univ teachers, a project to create a new core curriculum for econ was launched at a seminar hosted by the UK Treasury. The curriculum project convened the meeting attended by academics, policy makers, biz leaders and students from around the world (How should macroeconomics be taught to univ students in post-crisis era?, VoxEU)

Posted on Fri, 22 Nov 13:

Lessons from Kennedy's peace campaign -- Sachs, Chicago Tribune, by J Sorensen, 10 June 13:
As Columbia U's Earth Inst dir and adviser to the UN Sec-Gen, Jeffrey Sachs has devoted his considerable intellect and energy to global development. It was in this capacity, he writes, that he came across John F. Kennedy's commencement address at American U and its enduring message. In a new book, To Move the World: JFK's quest for peace, Sachs compellingly describes that message

The highly scientific scheme to help the world's poor, Wired Mag, by J Benko, 12 Nov 13:
When MIT's asst prof Michael Kremer arrived for a visit in Kenya, where he had lived for a year after college, he found out that one of his friends had begun working for an educ NGO running a campaign to provide free textbooks. The idea was that this would boost test scores and keep children in school longer. While chatting, he began to wonder: how did the NGO know the campaign would work?

Odds lot - Statisticians party like it's 2.013 x 10 cubed, WSJ, by D Michaels, 15 Nov 13:
When Ingrid van Keilegom tells people she is a statistician, they usually reply fearfully, "Oh, no", she says. "To them, it sounds like math". So she and her colleagues held an event as part of the Intl Year of Statistics, a global campaign to increase the odds that people will think positively about number crunching. It began as a move to celebrate the 300th anniversary of Swiss mathematician Jacob Bernoulli's work on probability

Posted on Wed, 20 Nov 13:

Olivier Blanchard: Monetary policy will never be the same, IMF (blog), 19 Nov 13:
Two weeks ago, the IMF organized a confab on lessons from the crisis. Here is my take. I shall focus on what I see as the lessons for monetary policy, but let me 1st mention 2 other important conclusions. One, having your macro house in order pays off when there is an (external) crisis. Two, after a financial crisis, it is essential to rapidly clean up and recapitalize the bank, writes IMF chief economist (On the IMF confab)

Boardroom/C-suite: Why breadth may soon trump depth, HQ Asia, by V Mansharamani, Aug '13 [PDF, courtesy Harvard]:
In his 1953 essay 'The Fox and the Hedgehog', philosopher and scholar Isaiah Berlin posited that there are two fundamental human types: hedgehogs and foxes. Drawing on an old European fable, Berlin contrasted hedgehogs, who "relate everything to a single, central vision", with foxes, who "pursue many ends... connected, if at all, only in some de facto way", writes Kennedy Sch senior fellow

Lempert and Chandra: Planning for superstorms, wildfires, and deep uncertainty, Rand (blog), 18 Apr 13:
Emergency preparedness has focused on 'predict-then-act' models where we can predict what will happen and focus decisions accordingly. As an alternative to 'predict-then-act', robust decision making is a framework that inverts the traditional analytical steps in decision making, write Rand Ctr Longer Range Global Policy dir; and grad sch prof (Making good decisions without predictions [PDF])

Posted on Mon, 18 Nov 13:

Which country has the most development-friendly policies?, Ctr Global Devt (blog), by O Barber, 18 Nov 13:
For the 2nd year in a row, the winner of the 'Commitment to Development Index' is Denmark. Denmark does not have the highest score in any of the index's 7 components, but it has the most consistently development-friendly policies across the board. Its Scandinavian neighbors, Sweden and Norway, are 2nd and 3rd, respectively

Gulf airlines splash out over $100 bil. at Dubai air show, Reuters, 17 Nov 13 [via Gulf Biz]:
Gulf airlines splashed out over $100 bil. of orders at the air show, underscoring a shift in power in the aviation industry. The Gulf airlines--Emirates (Dubai), Etihad (Abu Dhabi), and Qatar Airways--are competing with each other for a share of traffic flooding through the region, due to its strategic location between East and West (Gulf airlines could suffer from pilot shortage, Gulf News)

People less aware of top entrepreneurs than of celebrities, politicians and athletes, Kauffman Found., 12 Nov 13:
People know their celebrities, living or dead: 96% recognize the name Marilyn Monroe. But say 'Steve Jobs' to the average citizen, and the odds are barely better than 50/50 that you'll get a nod of recognition for the founder of Apple, acc. to a study released by the foundation (Global Entrepreneurship Week, 18-24 Nov | Global Entrep. Report launched in Malaysia | Global Entrep. Report)

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