News and Analysis: 20-31 Jan 2014 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

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Posted on Fri, 31 Jan 14:

Nouriel Roubini: Are the BRICS in midlife crisis?, WEForum (blog), 24 Jan 14:
Three of the 5 BRICS (Brazil, India and SAfrica) are now part of what investors consider the 'Fragile Five' emerging markets (the other 2 are Turkey and Indonesia). These fragile emerging markets share weaknesses, such as large current account deficits, large fiscal deficits, falling growth, rising inflation and political/policy uncertainty, and they all face elections this year, writes NYU prof

Mobile money helps Kenyans weather financial storms, MIT News, 22 Jan 14:
Only about one-fourth of Kenyans have access to a traditional bank, and many people in the nation farm for a living. The result is that a large number are vulnerable to unpredictable income fluctuations. But a new study shows that a growing form of electronic payments is helping them weather these financial problems (New World Bank report charts road map for financial inclusion)

Infographic: Top 100 city destinations ranking, Euromonitor Intl, 27 Jan 14 [PDF]:
This covers 100 of the world's leading cities in terms of intl tourist arrivals. Within the top 10, six cities are located in Asia, showing the importance of the region to intl travel. The top 5 cities are Hong Kong, Singapore, Bangkok, London and Macau. Overall, 32 of the top 100 city destinations are in Asia-Pacific, 12 more than in 2nd-placed Western Europe (Euromonitor's report)

Posted on Wed, 29 Jan 14:

Turkish central bank makes massive rate hikes to stem lira fall, Reuters, 29 Jan 14:
Turkey's central bank hiked its key interest rates in dramatic fashion at an emergency midnight policy meeting, ignoring opposition from the prime minister as it battles to defend the country's crumbling currency. The boldness of the actions stunned investors, sending the lira sharply higher and stirring hopes it would short-circuit a vicious cycle of selling in emerging markets

Emerging markets - As the tide goes out, Goldman Sachs, Dec '13 [PDF,1.8MB]:
The recent swoon of emerging market assets has led many investors to question whether this period of under-performance reflects a temporary cyclical downturn or the beginning of a long-lasting trend based on the significant structural issues facing emerging markets. We have called attention to the shared and specific fault lines of emerging markets for the last 5 years

Infographic: World innovation clusters, MIT Technology Review, July '13:
Innovation clusters are places with dense webs of interconnected tech companies, customers and suppliers. Improving a cluster's chance of flourishing are factors such as liberal immigration laws and venture capital financing. We rate five of the largest regional technology clusters, as well as three newer, govt-supported efforts to fuel innovation

Posted on Mon, 27 Jan 14:

Michael Spence: What are the next steps for emerging economies?, WEForum (blog), 24 Jan 14:
Most of the financial commentary on emerging markets has turned negative. This reflects a combination of uncertainties, whether to do with growth in those markets, continued slow growth in mature economies, possible overvaluations resulting from previous expectations (now being revised), and anticipated capital outflows associated with tapering, writes Nobel Laureate '01 / NYU prof & chair, Fung Global Inst (HK)

William Easterly: Aid amnesia--Sachs has gone down rabbit hole on aid debate, Foreign Policy, 23 Jan 14:
Today, Jeffrey Sachs' critics do not even mention his original claim that aid will unleash the tremendous dynamism of self-sustaining growth. Does this mean that his original claims are so implausible that they're not worth mentioning or refuting? I didn't anticipate that Sachs himself would now also join the loud silence on his original vision for Big Aid, writes NYU Devt Res Inst co-dir (Sachs: The case for aid)

Coffers: Merton's message--Give up on alpha, top1000funds, by A White, 18 Dec 13:
Robert Merton, Nobel Laureate '97, has thrown down the gauntlet. He claims that by focusing on a retirement income goal he can beat any competitor that is managing a 70:30 portfolio that has wealth accumulation as the goal. Do you dare take him on? (Celebrating the Black-Scholes-Merton model in finance, MIT)

Posted on Fri, 24 Jan 14:

Currencies--Contagion spreads in emerging markets as crises grow, Businessweek, 24 Jan 14:
The worst sell-off in emerging-market currencies in 5 years is beginning to reveal the extent of the fallout from the Federal Reserve's tapering of monetary stimulus, compounded by growing political and financial instability. The currencies affected include the Turkish lira, Ukraine's hryvnia, South Africa's rand and Argentina's peso

Treasury Secy Lew expects good year of growth for US economy, WEForum, 23 Jan 14:
The US economy will have a good year in 2014, spurred by strong core growth, rising confidence and an end to the fiscal drag, Treasury Secy Jacob Lew told participants at the World Economic Forum. However, he warned Congress against creating a 'false crisis' by failing to raise the debt limit promptly (Despite slower growth, the BRICS remain a dynamic force)

Coffee/Tea Room: Goldie Hawn--Why mindfulness matters, WEFoum (blog), 23 Jan 14:
Today, young people are faced with incredible levels of stress and distraction, which impede learning and, ultimately, their ability to achieve success and happiness. In recent years I've switched my career focus and by far the most exciting work I've done is helping children to cultivate the skills they need to excel and engage more effectively in learning and life, writes actress-producer / founder of the Hawn Foundation

Posted on Wed, 22 Jan 14:

The 4 big issues on the Davos program, WEForum (blog), 20 Jan 14:
If 2013 was characterized by the Euro zone crisis, and the years before that by the global financial crisis, 2014 is conspicuous for the fact that no acute crisis is so far dominating the agenda. However, the recovery remains sluggish and its fruits are unevenly distributed. Are decision-makers in business and politics willing and able to meet society's new expectations?

Olivier Blanchard: Recovery strengthening, but much work remains, IMF (blog), 21 Jan 14:
Our update of the World Economic Outlook forecasts that growth in emerging and developing economies, while lower than in the past, will remain high. While these nations will benefit from higher growth in advanced economies, they will face tighter financial conditions as US monetary policy normalizes. For most nations, the 1st effect will dominate the 2nd, writes IMF chief economist, on leave from MIT

3 myths that block progress for the poor, Bill and Melinda Gates Annual Letter, 21 Jan 14:
The belief that the world can't solve extreme poverty and disease isn't just mistaken. It is harmful. That's why in this year's letter we take apart some of the myths that slow down the work. Myth one: Poor countries are doomed to stay poor. Myth two: Foreign aid is a big waste. Myth three: Saving lives leads to overpopulation, write co-chairs of the Gates Foundation

Posted on Mon, 20 Jan 14:

"85 richest people's wealth same as that of half world's population" - report, Oxfam, 20 Jan 14:
The wealth of half the world's population is now the same as that of a group who could fit on a double-decker bus, warns a report published today. 'Working for the Few', published ahead of this week's World Economic Forum in Davos, details the pernicious impact that widening inequality is having in both developed and developing countries

Beyond borders - Growth challenges for emerging markets, IMF (blog), by A Culiuc and K Kochhar, 13 Jan 13:
Emerging markets know the end-game -- interest rates in mature economies will eventually go up. The fortunes of emerging markets shift with external conditions. But policies have a role to play in buffering the impact of these forces. Their room to maneuver will depend on their policy during the boom years, write IMF economists (Structural reforms are key to sustained growth)

Steam, combustion, search--the engines of their time, Allianz's Project M, by R Donkin, Dec '13:
The nearly 3-million-year-old stone hand ax found at the Olduvai Gorge in Tanzania is the 1st tangible evidence of work, and also of technology, the 1st reminder that much of the tech we produce is designed to make work and life easier. How has our understanding of work changed? How will we look at work in the future?, asks fmr FT journalist and author

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