News and Analysis: 3-14 Mar 2014 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

Based in: Manila, Philippines

Posted on Wed, 14 Mar 14:

Losing Crimea could sink Ukraine's offshore oil and gas hopes, Businessweek, 11 Mar 14:
Without Crimea, Ukraine looks set to lose an important piece of its economic and energy future: valuable undersea oil and gas fields that lie just offshore the Crimean peninsula. Exploiting those Black Sea fields could help reduce Ukraine's dependence on Russian gas imports. And Big Oil had been interested

Sound policy design - the efficient way to cut inequality, IMF Survey Mag, 13 Mar 14:
Over the last three decades, inequality has increased in most countries, and this has put increased pressure on fiscal policy to redistribute income. To support sustainable economic growth, redistribution should be done with fiscal instruments that achieve distributional objectives at a minimum cost to economic efficiency

Erik Solheim: Want to end poverty? Tackle inequality first, WEForum (blog), 21 Feb 14:
The global momentum for an ambitious goal on poverty reduction is strong, but some question whether it is possible to end poverty while growing in an environmentally, socially and economically sustainable way. There are very good reasons to side with the optimists in this debate--but only if we manage to break through one major obstacle: inequality, writes OECD dev't assistance cmte chair

Posted on Wed, 12 Mar 14:

Barry Eichengreen: Yuan dive?, Project Syndicate, 12 Mar 14:
Since Dec, when the US Fed began tapering its purchases of long-term assets, emerging-market currencies have fallen across the board. The main exception was China's indomitable renminbi. But now it too has been falling vs the dollar. Its decline is not large, but it is in the opposite direction from what everyone has come to expect, writes fmr IMF senior policy adviser / U Calif-Berkeley prof

Boardroom/C-suite: Trying to understand the science behind strategy, Univ Chicago, Mar/May '14:
A biz school prof is pioneering a new field: behavioral strategy. He is working to prove empirically that there's a method behind good strategy. He knows that strategy can be learned--a conclusion he has arrived at after 30 years spent teaching people how to make smart decisions--but decades of anecdotal evidence in the form of student success isn't enough

D Lachman: IMF loan must wait until after Ukraine's May election - a response to Aslund, FT, 28 Feb 14 [courtesy AEI]:
It is not clear that Aslund does us a service by minimizing the magnitude of econ adjustment that Ukraine needs and by overstating what the IMF can reasonably be expected to do to support that country, writes fmr IMF policy dept dep dir / Inst resident fellow (Aslund: Ukraine can now fix its economy, if it moves fast) [courtesy Peterson Inst]

Posted on Mon, 10 Mar 14:

Backgrounder - Malaysia Airlines, one of Asia's leading carrier, News Agencies, 10 Mar 14 [via Xinhua/Global Times]:
Malaysia Airlines is reputed to be one of Asia's best carrier granted with more than 100 awards in the past 10 years, incl top honors from Skytrax UK and the World Travel Awards. However, Malaysia's flag carrier has been mired in a protracted financial crisis (Malaysia Airlines aims high, Sep '13 | Three things about Malaysia Airlines’ massive losses, Feb '14)

The promise and peril of Bitcoin, Stanford Univ, 25 Feb 14:
Bitcoin is a stateless, digital currency that allows people to make transactions with no middlemen--no banks, no transaction fees and no govts. Recently, however, Bitcoin has found itself under siege for a variety of problems, and since then, the price of the coins has tumbled. Economist Susan Athey and venture capitalist Balaji Srinivasan discuss the digital currency

Reverse the curse - how to maximize the potential of resource-driven economies, McKinsey, Dec '13:
Rising resource prices and expanded production have raised the number of nations where the resource sector represents a major share of the economy, from 58 in '95 to 81 in '11. In 20 years, almost half of the world's nations could depend on their resource endowments for growth. A new model could help govts capture the coming resource windfall instead of squandering it

Posted on Fri, 7 Mar 14:

Heavier sanctions on Russia could backfire, experts worry, AP, 7 Mar 14 [via Metro News/Canada]:
Underlying talk about taking harsh punitive measures against Russia are econ complications and worries. Heavier sanctions could sting Russia's already slow-growing economy and hurt its financial sector. But Moscow could retaliate and seize US and other foreign assets or cut exports of natural gas to Europe, which is heavily dependent on Russia for energy

IMF sends fact-finding team to Ukraine, IMF Survey Mag, 5 Mar 14:
An IMF staff team arrived on 4 Mar in Kiev to conduct a technical, independent analysis of the econ situation and to begin a preliminary dialog with Ukrainian authorities on a possible Fund-supported econ program. Such visits, called IMF staff 'missions', are typically the 1st step in responding to a member country's request for financial support (IMF European dept dir visits Ukraine)

Connections on Wall Street, Finance & Development, by Lily Fang, June/Aug '13:
Wall St is a fascinating place to study gender and performance evaluation. Are male and female analysts evaluated on the basis of different criteria? I am not a feminist nor an expert on gender issues. I stumbled on these findings virtually by accident as a result of my curiosity as a financial economist, writes Insead assoc prof (8 Mar--Intl Women's Day)

Posted on Wed, 5 Mar 14:

Ukraine could borrow more if IMF reforms passed - US, Reuters, 4 Mar 14:
Ukraine would be able to borrow more money in the midst of its current crisis if US lawmakers sign off on a measure to increase the IMF's financial power, US officials said on Tue. The crisis in Ukraine, where IMF support is seen as critical to shoring up Kiev's collapsing finances, may give the Obama admin the leverage it needs to convince Congress to approve long-sought reforms to the IMF

Kenneth Rogoff: Malthus, Marx, and modern growth, Project Syndicate, 4 Mar 14:
The promise that each generation will be better off than the last is a fundamental tenet of modern society. By and large, most advanced economies have fulfilled this promise. In the developing world, too, the vast majority of people have started to experience sustained improvement in living standards. But will future generations realize such expectations?, asks recipient of the Deutsche Bank '11 prize in fin econ / Harvard prof

Nations with differing economic levels find ways to improve citizens' well-being, Boston Consult. Group, 10 Feb 14:
Nations at all levels of econ growth have managed to produce outsize improvements in the well-being of their citizens, acc. to a new report. High-growth nations with above-average records, for example, achieved this primarily through improvements in infrastructure and health. Low-growth countries with strong records often accomplished this through improvements in the environment and civil society

Posted on Mon, 3 Mar 14:

Russian central bank hikes rates as ruble plunges over Ukraine crisis, AFP, 3 Mar 14 [via Hurriyet Daily News/Turkey]:
Russia's central bank on 3 Mar hiked its main interest rate in an emergency move to limit the econ damage from Russian military intervention in Ukraine, as local stocks plunged and the ruble hit historic lows against the dollar and the euro. The ruble has already been under major pressure in recent weeks due to investor nerves about emerging markets and Russia's flimsy medium term growth prospects

Larry Summers: America risks becoming a Downton Abbey economy, FT, 16 Feb 14 [courtesy Harvard]:
Inequality has emerged as a major issue in the US and beyond. Given the widespread frustration with stagnant incomes, and an increasing body of evidence suggesting that the worst-off have few opportunities to improve their lot, demands for action are hardly unreasonable. The challenge is knowing what to do, writes Pres Obama's fmr Natl Econ Council head / Harvard prof

Book value: Should book publishing be all about profit?, Guardian, by B Porter, 9 Jan 14:
OUP (aka the Oxford Univ Press) is one of Britain's truly great institutions, up there, or nearly, with the NHS and the BBC. It has been the butt of witty put-downs from time immemorial--Oxford dons are good at that--although the most famous one is, as the author points out, a slight misquote: "Being published by the Oxford Press is like being married to a duchess: the honor is greater than the pleasure"

EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

emerging and frontier markets:

the unofficial field guide