News and Analysis: 2-16 Oct 2015 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

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Posted on Fri, 16 Oct 2015:

Nancy Birdsall: IMF/World Bank meetings - Was it different in Lima?, Ctr Global Dev't (blog), 14 Oct 15:
I was surprised: development issues figured prominently at the IMF/World Bank meetings in Lima last weekend. Normally, when global growth is low and weakening and uncertainty is high (China, US interest rates, implications of commodity price declines) -- well, those 'macro' issues naturally dominate the talk in the seminars and in the corridors. But not this time, writes Ctr pres

Edward Lazear: How not to prevent the next financial meltdown, WSJ, 2 Oct 15 [via Hoover Inst]:
The large market declines and increased volatility of the past few months have prompted concerns that we may be headed toward financial chaos again. The 2010 Dodd-Frank law was the supposed solution to prevent that from happening, but as Milton Friedman cautioned, "the gov't solution to a problem is usually as bad as the problem and very often makes the problem worse", writes Pres GW Bush's Council Econ Advisers chair

Harnessing the power of fiscal policy to mitigate inequality, IMF Survey Mag, 25 Sep 15:
The appropriate design of fiscal policies can mitigate income inequality, without hurting growth, or even while increasing it, acc. to a new IMF book, Inequality and Fiscal Policy. Over the last few decades, income inequality has been on the rise in three-quarters of advanced economies and about half of the developing world, incl countries such as China and India

Posted on Wed, 14 Oct 2015:

Acharya, Cecchetti & assoc: How would a US interest rates rise affect emerging markets?, Vox EU, 14 Oct 15 [via WEForum (blog)]:
Emerging market firms have borrowed in foreign currency to take advantage of low interest rates. When the Fed inevitably raises rates, such borrowing will be a threat to emerging markets' financial systems. Will there then be another round of financial stress or even a wave of crises in emerging markets?, ask members of the non-partisan Committee on Int'l Economic Policy and Reform

Robert Skidelsky: Answering the Queen's question - "Why did no one see it coming?", OECD (blog), 12 Oct 15:
When UK's Queen Elizabeth addressed this question to a group of economists in '08. she was spot on. The OECD's New Approaches to Economic Challenges report recognizes this, arguing that the challenge is for economists to develop a better sense of how economies work; and for econ policy to develop policies which reflect this understanding, writes author of award-winning biography of Keynes

Danny Leipziger: What can the Asian Tigers and Latin Pumas learn from each other?, World Bank (blog), 9 Oct 15:
The global landscape these days is not a pretty one: collapsing commodity prices, weak demand in the OECD economies and a pronounced slowdown in many emerging markets, unpredictable capital flows affecting exchange rates, and a noticeable slump in world trade. This is clearly not a good time to be a finance minister, writes Growth Dialogue manag dir / George Wash U prof

Posted on Mon, 12 Oct 2015:

Nobel Prize in Economics -- Angus Deaton (Princeton Univ), "for his analysis of consumption, poverty, and welfare", Nobel, 12 Oct 15:
The work for which he is being honored revolves around 3 central questions: 1) How do consumers distribute their spending among different goods?; 2) How much of society's income is spent and how much is saved?; and 3) How do we best measure and analyze welfare and poverty? His research has helped transform the fields of microeconomics, macroeconomics, and development economics

Deaton: "Those lucky to be born in the right nations have a moral obligation to reduce poverty in the world," LSE (blog), Dec '13:
Q&A with Princeton's Angus Deaton: In your recent book you write that "foreign aid is doing more harm than good and it is undermining nations' chance to grow." Can you explain your argument?; and Could you create conditions for the aid money that goes in? ("If the rich can write the rules then we have a real problem")

Policy makers face triad of challenges to ensure financial stability, IMF Survey Mag, 7 Oct 15:
Although many emerging markets have enhanced their policy frameworks and built up greater resilience to external shocks, several face domestic imbalances, slower growth, and lower commodity prices. A buildup of credit in emerging markets since the crisis has made them vulnerable to the expected increase in interest rates in industrialized economies

Posted on Fri, 9 Oct 2015:

Vulnerable nations launch 'V20' to fight climate change, AFP, 9 Oct 15 [via Business Standard/India]:
Finance ministers from 20 of the countries most vulnerable to climate change have launched the 'V20' group to pool resources for their fight against the impact of global warming. The group, which includes some of the world's smallest and poorest countries, is a counterpoint to the G20 group of leading industrialized and emerging economies

Peet and Madrigano: Adapting to a hotter world, US News & World Report, 2 Oct 15 [via Rand]:
Mitigation policies, such as Obama's Clean Power Plan, are designed with the intent of tempering the impact of global warming by slowing and potentially stopping further climate change. But because climate change is largely irreversible, mitigation alone won't solve the problem, write Rand assoc economist; and assoc policy researcher

Palestinians getting poorer for third year in a row, World Bank, 29 Sep 15:
Reduced donor aid, war, suspension of revenue payments and ongoing restrictions by the Israeli gov't have had a severe impact on the Palestinian economy. The World Bank economic report to the Ad Hoc Liaison committee (AHLC), a forum of donors to the Palestinian Authority, examines current trends and recommends measures and reforms to stop further deterioration

Posted on Wed, 7 Oct 2015:

Nancy Birdsall: What is the future role of the World Bank?, Project Syndicate, 7 Oct 15 [via WEForum (blog)]:
Finance ministers, central bankers, and economists are gathering in Lima, Peru, for the Bank's annual meetings, where the debate will focus on how its agenda fits our changing world. Holding the event in a developing country represents a welcome shift from the usual Wash.DC venue. Now, the Bank should make some other important shifts, writes Ctr Global Dev't pres

Maurice Obstfeld: The quest for robust and synchronized global economic growth, IMF (blog), 6 Oct 15:
Our forecasts come at a moment when the world economy is at the intersection of at least 3 powerful forces. 1st, there is China's econ transformation -- away from export- and investment-led growth and manufacturing, in favor of consumption and services. 2nd is the fall in commodity prices. And 3rd is the impending normalization of US monetary policy, writes the new IMF chief economist

Seminar Room: Why it's good to be wrong, Nautilus (blog), by Y Bang, 8 May 15:
Making a mistake on a science exam is bad. So is publishing a paper with flawed reasoning. But what about being fallible in the 1st place? That should be embraced, says David Deutsch, a Fellow of the Royal Society, a pioneer in quantum computing, and a popular science book author. After all, he says, "error is unavoidable in the growth of knowledge"

Posted on Mon, 5 Oct 2015:

Global poverty to fall below 10% for first time, but major hurdles remain, World Bank, 4 Oct 15:
The number of people living in extreme poverty around the world is likely to fall to under 10% of the global pop. in 2015, according to projections released on 4 Oct. The Bank uses an updated int'l poverty line of US $1.90 a day, which incorporates new info on differences in the cost of living across nations (the Purchasing Power Parity exchange rates) (FAQs--global poverty line update)

US reaches deal on sweeping free-trade deal with 11 Pacific Rim nations, Los Angeles Times, 5 Oct 15:
After more than 6 years of stalled progress, negotiators announced a deal Mon. on a landmark trade accord linking 40% of the global economy. It sets the stage for what is almost certain to be a huge political battle, intensified by the 2016 pres'l campaign, that pits the White House, many Republicans and supporters of free trade against organized labor, civic groups and many Democrats

Bits & Bytes: Carl Bildt -- Who will govern the Internet is the key global issue today, Huff Post, 3 Aug 15 [via CIGI]:
The Internet has already become the most important infrastructure of the world. But the dynamics of its development would not have been possible without the strong role of the tech community, which to a large extent is American, writes fmr Swedish PM, who chairs the Global Commission on Internet Governance, a joint initiative between CIGI and UK's Chatham House

Posted on Fri, 2 Oct 2015:

Book Value: In memoir, Bernanke recalls Lehman's "surreal" failure, AP, by M Crutsinger, 1 Oct 15 [via Seattle Times]:
Ben Bernanke recalls the Sep weekend in 2008 when regulators sought desperately but in vain to save the investment bank Lehman Brothers as a "terrible, surreal moment". A "blur" is how he describes the events. He recalls the episode in a 600-page memoir, The Courage to Act: A memoir of a crisis and its aftermath, scheduled to be released Mon, 5 Oct

Claire Melamed: Why we need data on what the poorest think, Aeon Magazine, 10 Sep 15:
What would happen if the aid industry started collecting data on how the people it serves actually feel about their lives? It's very rare indeed for an aid agency or NGO to run a survey to find out about public perceptions, values and views in the countries where they work. Why might that be?, asks Overseas Dev't Inst's growth, poverty & inequality prog dir

Why did western Europe dominate the globe?, Caltech News, 1 Sep 15:
Although Europe represents only about 8% of the planet's landmass, from 1492 to 1914, Europeans conquered or colonized more than 80% of the entire world. By 1914, only China, Japan, and the Ottoman Empire had escaped becoming European colonies. A thousand years ago, no one would have ever expected that result. Caltech's Philip Hoffman has a new explanation

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