News and Analysis: 2-16 Nov 2015 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

Based in: Manila, Philippines

Posted on Mon, 16 Nov 2015:

Chi Lo: SDR or not, China's renminbi has long road ahead to true global status, HK Econ Journal (blog), 16 Nov 15:
The IMF issued a new staff report on 13 Nov supporting the inclusion of the renminbi in the Special Drawing Rights (SDR). Assuming the IMF exec board approves it at its meeting on 30 Nov, the question is what will come next?, writes BNP Paribas Investment Partners (Asia) senior economist / author of China's Impossible Trinity (IMF's Lagarde's statement)

Glenn Hubbard: It's time for candidates to get serious about the economy, Politico, 1 Nov 15 [via Columbia Univ]:
Our econ debate is stuck in the 50's. It calls to mind a joke from a few years ago: "Republicans want to go back and live in the 50's. Democrats want to go back and work there." In this unusual primary season, the partisan lines in the joke are blurred, but the nostalgia is featured in the themes of front-runners in both parties. This is unhelpful, writes Pres GW Bush's Council Econ Advisers chair

Global Locations Trends 2015 report released, AmCham (Netherlands), 15 Sep 15:
This annual report analyzes the latest trends in where companies locate their new operations around the world, and what drives these decisions. The report is produced by Plant Location Int'l, the location strategy and site selection consulting division of IBM Global Business Services (Rankings: Bogota | London | Amsterdam)

Posted on Fri, 13 Nov 2015:

Should we just give cash?, World Bank, 22 Oct 15:
Govts have long funded social protection programs to protect the poor from the worst kinds of deprivation. But the launch of Mexico's conditional cash transfer program more than a decade ago raised the question: can social protection programs break the cycle of poverty and even boost households out of poverty permanently? And what types of programs hold the most promise?

Spence and Warsh: A little humility, please, Mr. Summers, WSJ, 4 Nov 15 [via Hoover Inst]:
We recently proffered an explanation for a phenomenon that most macro models cannot adequately explain: why is investment in US financial assets so strong and investment in the real economy so modest? Fmr Treasury secy Larry Summers took issue with our views, revealing a troubling immodesty, write Nobel Laureate '01; and fmr Fed governor

Jagdish Bhagwati: India should not toe the US line on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Hindustan Times, 28 Sep 15:
A US think tank argues that India must attempt to join the US-led TPP. This would mean that India would have to embrace, for instance, the US view on intellectual property protection (incl in the pharmaceutical sector) and free capital flows. This is worrisome for multiple reasons, writes Columbia U prof (PM's reform speed is rightly slow, some slogans not so smart, Econ Times)

Posted on Wed, 11 Nov 2015:

Global wealth in 2015 - Underlying situation remains positive, though inequalities continue to widen, Credit Suisse, 13 Oct 15:
The Global Wealth Report, now in its 6th ed., defines wealth as the value of financial assets plus real estate (housing) owned by the households, less their debts. It says that the US continued adding to global wealth at an impressive rate, with solid growth also evident in China. The top 1% now own half of all household wealth, while the richest 10% own almost 88%

Bits & Bytes: Carl Bildt -- One Net, one future, Project Syndicate, 26 Oct 15 [via Ctr Int'l Governance Innov]:
Once upon a time, two superpowers, US and the Soviet Union, held summits to reduce the danger of a nuclear war. Today, the summitry is between US and China, a large part of which is to reduce the dangers of confrontation and conflict in cyberspace, writes fmr Swedish PM / Global Commission on Internet Governance chair, a joint initiative between CIGI and UK's Chatham House

Greg Mankiw: Shifting the tax burden to cut carbon, NY Times, 6 Sep 15 [PDF, courtesy Harvard]
This summer, a friend sent me a remarkable headline from The Seattle Times: " 'Green' Alliance Opposes Petition to Tax Carbon." My initial thought was that this doesn't make sense. It is like reading "Democrats Rally to Cut the Minimum Wage" or "Republicans Unite to Hike Income Taxes", writes Pres GW Bush's Council Econ Advisers chair / Harvard prof

Posted on Mon, 9 Nov 2015:

Rapid, climate-smart development needed to keep more than 100 mil. people out of poverty, World Bank, 8 Nov 15:
A new report shows that climate change is an acute threat to poorer people across the world over the next 15 years. And the poorest regions of the world -- Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia -- will be hit the hardest. But the report -"Shock Waves: Managing the impacts of climate change on poverty"- also points to a way out

Corruption - A hidden tax on growth, IMF (blog), by V Gaspar & S Hagan, 5 Nov 15:
At its recent annual meetings in Lima, the IMF hosted a refreshingly frank discussion on the subject. The panel session provided a stimulating debate on definitions of corruption, its direct and indirect consequences, and strategies for addressing it, incl the role that individuals and institutions can play. This post gives a flavor of the discussion, write IMF fiscal affairs dept dir; and legal dept dir

Coffee/Tea Room: Economist Frederic Pryor recounts life as a 'spy', Swarthmore College, 21 Oct 15:
For more than half a century, Frederic Pryor has been doing his best to forget about his experiences in East Germany. Then along came "Bridge of Spies", a film directed by Steven Spielberg and starring Tom Hanks. "Half a year of prison isn't fun," says the emeritus prof, whom the Stasi, the East German secret police, arrested in 1961 on suspicion of spying

Posted on Fri, 6 Nov 2015:

Lex Rieffel: State-owned enterprises and the future of the Myanmar economy, Brookings Inst (blog), 15 Sep 15:
Even if a new gov't emerges that is distinctly less authoritarian, it seems unlikely that Myanmar will sustain its high GDP growth rate for more than a couple of years. A recent study of the state-owned enterprise sector hints at how difficult the econ transition will be, writes Inst senior fellow (Building on rural sector is key for econ modernization in Myanmar--OECD)

Attacking poverty through employability interventions, Rand (blog), by J Krapels & M Hafner, 16 Oct 15:
The 1st goal in the UN Sustainable Dev't Agenda commits members to "end poverty in all its forms everywhere." The agenda also suggests ways the goal could be achieved, for example through employment and education. Less clear to most policy makers is what the most efficient options are to reduce poverty through employment/training. This can be tricky, write Rand senior analysts

A bowl of cashews, Univ Chicago, by Duncan Moore, Oct '15:
Sometimes you feel like a nut; sometimes you don't. And sometimes you wish you didn't have to decide. At a dinner party economist Richard Thaler hosted in the 1970s, the guests while waiting with cocktails for the meal, were devouring the cashews. "Newton had his apple," he said in an interview, with the bit of mischief he's known for in the classroom. "I had my cashews"

Posted on Wed, 4 Nov 2015:

Spence, Leipziger & assoc: Restarting the global economy -- 3 mismatches that need concerted public action, VoxEU, 4 Nov 15:
The global economy is not working properly because of 3 mismatches: 1) between aggregate demand and aggregate supply; 2) between investment needs and investable funds; and 3) between the promise and the pitfalls of technological change, write Nobel Laureate '01; Growth Dialogue manag dir; McKinsey Inst dir; & Cornell U prof (Paper | Bellagio 2015)

Kevin Carmichael: If it is influence they want, emerging markets should consider the power of the pen, CIGI (blog), 30 Oct 15:
This is about the fair representation for emerging-market countries at int'l institutions and there really isn't much debate around the idea that current arrangements are unjust. Yet here we are, in the year 2015, and Belgium still has more votes at the IMF than Brazil. Why is obvious change so difficult to achieve?, asks Ctr senior fellow

Taiwan leaps past Tigers as economy upgrades with iPhone, Bloomberg News, 29 Apr 15:
In the 70's, S.Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan became known as the Asian tigers as rapid industrialization and export growth saw their economies boom. Hong Kong and Singapore evolved into financial centers, while Taiwan and S.Korea became known more for tech exports (Taiwan grows least since 2012 as China hurts exports | Rodrik: Getting globalization right - The East Asian tigers)

Posted on Mon, 2 Nov 2015:

Charles Kenny: The best welfare reform - Give poor people cash, Atlantic, 25 Sep 15:
It's a system that policy makers in many countries are loathe to try. They worry, in part, that recipients will waste the money -- spending it on, say, cigarettes and alcohol rather than nutritious food or school supplies. That concern with handing out money has led to complex systems of in-kind welfare support, writes Ctr Global Dev't senior fellow

Gillian Tett: How Tajik weddings helped me understand Wall Street, OECD (blog), 8 Oct 15:,
When I first became a financial journalist, I was often wary about revealing my peculiar past. I did a PhD in the field of cultural anthropology, or the study of human culture. Knowing about the wedding customs of the Tajiks does not seem an obvious training to write about the global economy or banking system, writes Financial Times US manag ed

Look out Piketty - here comes Gabriel Zucman, Bloomberg News, 21 Sep 15 [via Irish Times]:
With his new book, Zucman is positioning himself as this year's Piketty, whose opus renewed a debate about inequality last year. Both titles play off econ classics -- one by Karl Marx, the other Adam Smith -- and the new book resembles the cover of Piketty's. Piketty, who supervised Zucman's doctorate degree, also wrote the foreword (The Hidden Wealth of Nations: The scourge of tax havens [2015])

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