News and Analysis: 2-16 Mar 2015 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

Based in: Manila, Philippines

Posted on Mon, 16 Mar 15:

Rachel Kyte: The disaster reality that must change, World Bank (blog), 13 Mar 15:
On the eve of the World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction in Sendai, Japan, 3 cyclones – incl the ferocious Cyclone Pam – were casting a menacing shadow over the Asia-Pacific. As nations like Vanuatu and others in the Pacific know only too well, disasters hit developing nations the hardest, writes WB vice-pres & special envoy for climate change (Investing in resilience)

Evan Feigenbaum: The new Asian Order, Foreign Affairs, Feb '15 [via Carnegie Endow]:
In late '12, I found myself in Mumbai attending a forum. There is something a bit unsettling about being nearly the only American at a discussion of financial order held not on the Potomac, East, Hudson, or Thames. But the US should not shy away from a growing competitive challenge to its leadership in the Asia-Pacific, writes Carnegie's Asia prog senior assoc

Coffers: Simple systems beat Keynes at currency trading, Project M, Oct '14:
John Maynard Keynes is a legend in econ theory, but he also has surprising lessons to teach modern day currency traders. By carefully documenting Keynes' trading records, evaluating his performance and analyzing his trading strategy, two researchers from Cambridge U and London School Econ have pieced together insights which should make currency traders take notice

Posted on Fri, 13 Mar 15:

US riled as Britain seeks to join China-backed Asian bank, Times of India, 13 Mar 14:
Unfazed by US protest, Britain has decided to join the proposed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, becoming the 1st major Western country to seek membership of the bank in which 27 other nations are founding members. The bank is in addition to USD 40-bil. Silk Road fund set up by China and the USD 50-bil. BRICS bank in which China is an active member

An Open Letter to leaders of US Congress, by 14 fmr chairs of Council of Econ Advisers, 5 Mar 14:
Int'l trade is fundamentally good for the US economy and beneficial to American families over time. That is why we support the renewal of Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) to make it possible for the US to reach int'l agreements with our economic partners, write fmr chairs under Pres Ford, Carter, Reagan, GH Bush, Clinton, GW Bush, and Obama [via Mankiw's blog]

Robert Skidelsky: The renaissance of Economics, Cambridge Univ, 19 Dec 14 [via author's site]:
As Albert Einstein said: "Whether you can observe a thing or not depends on the theory which you use. It is this theory which decides what can be observed." The core of student dissatisfaction, as I see it, is not with abstraction per se: Keynesian and Marxist models can be just as abstract as neoclassical ones, writes author of the prize-winning biography of Keynes

Posted on Wed, 11 Mar 15:

Larry Summers: A deal worth getting right, FT, 8 Mar 15 [via author's site]:
Over the next few months, the controversial question of US participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal is likely to be resolved one way or the other. Proponents believe a deal is essential to both our econ and geopolitical interests; opponents fear that it will primarily benefit corporations and the wealthy, writes Pres Obama's fmr Nat'l Econ Council head

John Taylor: A recovery waiting to be liberated, WSJ, 3 Mar 15 [via Hoover Inst]:
For years, I and many others have argued that a return to the principles of econ freedom would convert this not-so-great recovery into a great one. But Washington has not seriously considered pro-growth policy. One reason: there is growing skepticism that the tried and true policies will boost growth rates, writes Pres GW Bush's Treas undersecy / Stanford prof

Owen Barder: A development policy for the 21st century, Ctr Global Dev't (blog), 2 Feb 15:
It drives me crazy that so many people equate dev't policy with foreign aid. That's why I welcome a recent landmark report from the UK parliament's Select Cmte. The 3 key tasks of dev't policy are now to help fragile states become stable, make growth in middle-income countries more inclusive, and address cross-border problems that affect us all, writes Ctr's Europe dir

Posted on Mon, 9 Mar 15:

Kenneth Rogoff: The stock-bond disconnect, Project Syndicate, 9 Mar 15:
How should one understand the disconnect between the new highs reached by global equity indices and the new depths plumbed by real interest rates worldwide? Several competing explanations attempt to reconcile these trends, and getting it right is essential for calibrating monetary and fiscal policy appropriately, writes recipient of '11 Deutsche Bank prize in financial econ

Wolfgang Fengler: How long will I live?, Brookings Inst (blog), 26 Feb 15:
Life is getting longer but it is still too short. The grief of losing a friend or family member is universal, and people are typically not prepared for this painful experience. With colleagues, I have developed a tool which approaches this difficult topic in a somewhat playful manner. Please keep in mind: this is a purely statistical exercise, writes a World Bank lead economist

The economics of solar power are on the rise, Morgan Stanley, 23 Jan 15:
For the 1st time, the cost of generating electricity from the sun can compete with traditional sources of power. Add to this equation breakthrough advances in battery technology, and sustainable, clean and dependable solar power can increasingly become a practical, cost-effective way (Nook & cranny: Flush with oil, Abu Dhabi opens world's largest solar plant, Nat'l Public Radio)

Posted on Fri, 6 Mar 15:

Nordic nations are most gender-equal societies in the world, World Economic Forum, 28 Oct 14:
Iceland, Finland, Norway, Sweden and Denmark top the global gender gap index in 2014. Nicaragua and Rwanda also make it to the top 10. In Asia-Pacific, the Philippines remains the region's highest-ranked country, followed by New Zealand and Australia (Country rankings | 8 Mar is Int'l Women's Day)

Harvard's Eric Maskin and Michael Kremer look at globalization and inequality, Harvard Mag, Mar/Apr '15:
Trade theory predicts globalization should lower inequality in the developing world. Economist Michael Kremer explains, in much of the developing world, "the empirical evidence is not really consistent with the idea that trade is reducing inequality." He and Nobel Laureate '07 Eric Maskin have therefore proposed a new model to help explain the discrepancy

Glenn Hubbard: Avoiding economic policy's Bermuda Triangle, FT, 25 Feb 15 [via author's site]:
The season of policy ideas is upon us. While the debate on how to advance GDP, household incomes, and other objectives is important, it is unlikely to yield breakthrough ideas. We must go beyond the current triangle of trade-offs among jobs, income security, and near-term budget outcomes. This triangle is really a tri-lemma, writes Pres G W Bush's Council Econ Advisers chair

Posted on Wed, 4 Mar 15:

Ukraine raises key rate to world's highest amid currency rout, Bloomberg, 3 Mar 15:
Ukraine's central bank raised its benchmark interest rate to the world's highest, the 5th emergency move since the beginning of last week to arrest a plunge in its currency, the hryvnia, as the nation moves closer to obtaining a bailout. The central bank raised its refinancing rate to 30% from 19.5%. That is the highest benchmark among all nations tracked by Bloomberg

Summers on global threats, USA Today, by Maria Bartiromo, 16 Feb 15 [via Summers's site]:
I caught up with fmr Treasury secy Larry Summers to talk Europe, the US. and Harvard, which is where he remains a professor: Q-What should the US be doing in terms of Russia and Ukraine?; Let me bring it back to the US, how would you characterize the economy? At Harvard, where do your students want to work and start businesses?

Emerging economies' vulnerability to monetary policy changes, St. Louis Fed (blog), 3 Feb 15:
A recent study examined how vulnerable emerging market economies are to changes in monetary policies of advanced economies, which can affect capital flows and the value of their currencies. The study constructed an indicator using 6 fundamental econ variables of each nation studied The most vulnerable nations appear to be India, Turkey and SAfrica

Posted on Mon, 2 Mar 15:

Namibia's outgoing president wins Ibrahim Prize for African leadership, Mo Ibrahim Foundation, 2 Mar 14:
The prize committee for the Ibrahim Prize, established in 2007, assesses democratically elected fmr heads of gov't in Africa, like Namibia's Pres Pohamba, who have served their term in office within the limits set by their nation's constitution. In 2009, 2010, 2012 and 2013 the prize committee, after in-depth review, did not select a winner

Martin Feldstein: The deflation bogeyman, Project Syndicate, 28 Feb 14 [via author's site]:
The world's major central banks are currently obsessed with the goal of raising their national inflation rates to their common target of about 2% per year. This is true for the US, UK, and the euro zone. But is this a real problem?, asks Pres Reagan's Council Econ Advisers chair / Harvard prof

Martha Nussbaum: Tell Narendra Modi - Human dev't is more than GDP, Boston Review, June '14:
Dev't thinkers all over the world have increasingly gravitated to a paradigm that measures dev't by looking at 'capabilities', or substantial opportunities, that people have only when public policy has put them in a position of effective freedom of choice in crucial areas of their lives, writes Hindu Ctr Politics/Public Policy board of advisors member / U Chicago prof

EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

emerging and frontier markets:

the unofficial field guide