News and Analysis: 1-15 Apr 2015 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

Based in: Manila, Philippines

Posted on Wed, 15 Apr 15:

Olivier Blanchard: Four forces facing the global economy, IMF (blog), 14 Apr 15:
As always, there are risks to the forecasts. We see macroeconomic risks as having slightly decreased. The major risk last year--a recession in the Euro area--has decreased, and so has the risk of deflation. But financial and geopolitical risks have increased. A Greek crisis cannot be ruled out, an event that could unsettle financial markets, writes IMF chief economist

Greg Mankiw: A slippery new rule for gauging fiscal policy, NYT, 1 Mar 15 [PDF, via Harvard]:
How should Congress's economists open a can of worms? House Republicans have recently changed the rules: the Congressional Budget Office and Joint Cmte on Taxation are now required to use 'dynamic scoring' when evaluating major changes in tax and spending policy. This is the can of worms that awaits the new CBO head, writes Pres GW Bush's Council Econ Advisers chai

Nook & Cranny: Which country has the highest tax rate?, BBC News Mag, Feb '14:
In which countries do high earners pay the most tax? And where do average earners pay the most? Tax rates do vary dramatically depending on which country you live in. The accountancy firm PricewaterhouseCoopers has crunched the numbers for the G20 nations

Posted on Mon, 13 Apr 15:

David Wessel: Ahead of IMF meetings, a look at shifting economic risks, WSJ, 13 Apr 15 [via Brookings Inst]:
It is the season, in Washington, to warn about risks. In her curtain-raiser for the IMF's spring meetings, Managing Dir Christine Lagarde used the word a dozen times. More will be said about this as finance ministers and central bankers arrive in Wash this week. But the threats to the world economy are shifting, writes Hutchins Ctr Fiscal/Monetary Policy dir

Social progress index - Norway ranks top, Canada is top of G7, Brazil is top of BRICs, SPI, 9 Apr 15 [PDF]:
The most effective way to improve people's quality of life across the world, in both rich and poor nations, is to invest in social progress. This is acc. to the Social Progress Index 2015 by a US-based nonprofit. The index ranked 133 nations based on their social and environmental performance and measured the social progress of 99% of the world's population

Michael Woolcock: Making the case for case studies in development practice, World Bank (blog), 23 Feb 15:
The frequency and sophistication with which case studies are deployed by social scientists has greatly expanded in recent years. Professional schools across the disciplines - from medicine and engineering to business and public policy - now routinely use 'the case method' not only to teach but to generate practical knowledge, writes Bank's lead social dev't specialist

Posted on Fri, 10 Apr 15:

Plain vanilla investment funds can pose risks, IMF Survey Mag, 8 Apr 15:
Risks from some segments of the asset management industry -- leveraged hedge funds and money market funds -- are already widely recognized. However, there is an ongoing discussion about the risks from less leveraged, 'plain-vanilla' investment products, such as simple mutual funds and exchange-traded funds investing in bonds and equities

Barry Eichengreen: What will the next financial crisis look like - and are we ready?, Conversation (blog), 1 Dec 14:
In the 6 years since Lehman's collapse, much effort has gone into thinking about the next crisis and about how to strengthen financial rules and practices so that the fallout is contained. Has this effort been productive? Will the repercussions of the next crisis be less damaging?, asks author of Hall of Mirrors:The Great Depression, the Great Recession, and the uses-and misuse-of history (2015)

James Boughton: Will Cuba rejoin the IMF?, Project Syndicate, 8 Jan 15 [via Ctr Int'l Governance Innov]:
The restoration of diplomatic relations between Cuba and US unlocks new prospects for the island's economy. Some steps, incl the removal of the US trade embargo, are prohibited by a law adopted by Congress in '96. But the renewal of Cuba's membership in the IMF is a real possibility. Cuba was one of the IMF's 40 original member, writes fmr historian of the IMF

Posted on Wed, 8 Apr 15:

World Bank president sees new banks as allies, Reuters, 8 Apr 15 [via Independent Online/SAfrica]:
The World Bank plans to work together with the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in order to fight poverty and fund infrastructure projects, WB Pres Kim said. More than 50 countries, incl US European allies Britain, France and Germany, have rushed to join China's $50 bil. multilateral infrastructure bank

Ngaire Woods: Four ways to change the way we lead, World Econ Forum, 29 Jan 15 [via Global Policy (blog)]:
We've seen this happening before in the dying days of the Ottoman Empire, the Habsburg Empire, and after the 1st and 2nd World Wars, as old, great powers waned and new ones grew in influence. The shift in int'l power relationships that we are currently witnessing may be dramatic, but it certainly isn't new, writes Oxford U Blavatnik Sch Gov't dean

Dani Rodrik: Global capital heads for the frontier, Project Syndicate, 10 Mar 15:
'Frontier markets' are the latest fad in investment circles. Though these low-income nations - incl Bangladesh in Asia, Honduras in LatAm, and Ghana in Africa - have small, undeveloped financial markets, they are expected to become the emerging markets of the future, writes Inst Advanced Study prof (Interview with Rodrik, Richmond Fed Econ Focus)

Posted on Mon, 6 Apr 15:

UN calls for better management of water resources, United Nations, 20 Mar 15:
The planet is facing a 40% shortfall in water supply by 2030, unless we dramatically improve the management of this vital resource. This is the unavoidable conclusion reached in the 2015 UN World Water Development Report, "Water for a Sustainable World", published by the World Water Assessment Program on behalf of UN-Water

Explaining 'Capital' - Piketty at Harvard, Harvard Gazette, 10 Mar 15:
It's been just a year since Thomas Piketty's "Capital in the Twenty-First Century" turned the respected Univ of Paris economist into an academic and publishing rock star. Few could have imagined that a nearly 700-page text tracing wealth and income-distribution patterns in 20 nations as far back as the French Revolution would become a worldwide million-plus seller

Brian Levy: The virtues of modesty - governance and development, Foreign Policy, 25 Sep 14:
In nation after nation, voters have lost patience with elected leaders and parties who come to power with grand promises that gave way to a swamp of corruption. As part of a leadership team in the World Bank tasked with integrating governance into dev't strategy, I participated in forging the good governance consensus. But I'm now convinced that it is wrong, writes Johns Hopkins U prof

Posted on Wed, 1 Apr 15:

Gulf airlines hit back at European competition complaints, EurActiv, 1 Apr 15:
Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates are accused of distorting the EU aviation market with public subsidies and special guarantees for national carriers. The biggest US airlines, American, Delta, and United, have also complained about their Gulf-based competitors. Meanwhile, the Persian Gulf-based airlines have warned against protectionism

Limit UN development goals for 2030, get more value for money - study, Reuters, 26 Mar 15:
Focusing on a few global UN targets for 2030, such as cutting child malnutrition or phasing out fossil fuel subsidies, will give better value for money than a scattergun list, acc. to an expert panel of 2 Nobel econ laureates (Finn Kydland and Tom Schelling) and a U Chicago prof (Nancy Stokey) (Smart development goals, Copenhagen Consensus)

Luigi Zingales: Is Pope Francis a good manager?, Univ Chicago, 15 Dec 14:
Decisions such as the ones the pope made are important not only for an organization's internal discipline, but for credibly communicating to the outside the values of those who sit at the top and of the org itself. By removing a bishop, the pope communicates to the world that the protection of children is more important than the well-being of prelates, writes U Chicago prof

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