News and Analysis: 18-29 Jan 2016 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

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Posted on Mon, 15 Feb 2016:

Be careful what you wish for - Higher oil prices, slow growth may make for a perfect storm, Brookings (blog), by S Davies, 12 Feb 16:
A WSJ editor claims "we are one shock away from a recession and it's not going to take a lot. . . We have not set up the infrastructure or the policy to respond to [large shocks] and won't really know how to deal with it till long after it has arrived." Could that shock be an unexpected rise in oil prices?, asks World Bank senior economist

Rich people, poor countries - The rise of emerging-market tycoons and their mega firms, Peterson Inst, 11 Feb 16:
Like the robber barons of the 19th century Gilded Age, a new crop of billionaires is driving rapid industrialization in poor nations. The accelerated growth spurs prosperity for some, but it also widens the gap between the super rich and the rest of the pop. In a new book, senior fellow Caroline Freund analyzes nearly 700 emerging-market billionaires

Alvin Roth: Who gets what - and why, Milken Institute Review, 4th qtr '15 [PDF]:
Nobel economist Roth (2012) designs "matching markets", where price alone can't balance supply and demand – think of markets for everything from marriage to college admissions to donated kidneys. An excerpt from his recent book Who Gets What - and Why: The new economics of matchmaking and market design (2015)

Posted on Fri, 12 Feb 2016:

Foreign direct investment (FDI) matters, but not all FDI are created equal, World Bank (blog), by C Fruman, 10 Feb 16:
What separates rich and poor nations? One answer is knowledge, diversification and the composition of exports, all areas in which FDI has an important role to play. And one way to differentiate FDI is by an investor's motivations using a framework established by British economist John Dunning, writes WB trade/competitiveness dir

The double life of Richard Posner, Harvard Magazine, by L Caplan, Jan/Feb '16:
Building on the work of Nobel economists Gary Becker, Ronald Coase, and George Stigler, the economist Aaron Director, and the Yale legal scholar Guido Calabresi, Posner did more than anyone else to promote the approach called 'law and economics', which applies econ analysis to laws on regulation. The field remains the most influential movement in the law since the '30s

William Easterly: The West's aid illusion is betraying the world's poor, Times of London, 29 Nov 15 [PDF - 2.8MB, courtesy NYU]:
The Western powers justify their support of oppressive rulers, such as Uganda's, by support of humanitarian objectives such as relief from hunger and disease. This is ironic, because dictators that deny individuals freedom are not part of the solution; they are the cause of the poverty in the first place, writes New York

Posted on Wed, 10 Feb 2016:

Barry Eichengreen: China's exchange rate trap, Project Syndicate, 10 Feb 16 [via Guardian]:
For months, China's exchange-rate policy has been roiling global markets, or more precisely, the confusion about that policy. Officials have done a poor job communicating their intentions, encouraging the belief that they don't know what they're doing. But criticising is easier than offering constructive advice, writes Univ Calif-Berkeley and Univ Cambridge prof

John Cochrane: Here's what genuine tax reform looks like, WSJ, 22 Dec 15 [via Hoover Inst]:
Left and right agree that the US tax code is a mess. Those running for the White House and Congress are offering reform plans. But these are, and should be, political documents, designed to attract votes. To prevent today's ugly bargains from becoming tomorrow's conventional wisdom, we should frequently discuss the ideal tax structure, writes Univ Chicago prof

Nook and Cranny: Luigi Zingales -- Preventing the capture of economists, Tobin Project, 17 June 14 [courtesy Univ Chicago]:
The late Nobel Laureate George Stigler pioneered the concept of regulatory capture. In simple words, regulatory capture exists when a regulatory agency, created to act in the public interest, ends up advancing the interests of the industry it is charged with regulating, writes Univ Chicago prof

Posted on Mon, 08 Feb 2016:

Kenneth Rogoff: The great escape from China of its currency, Project Syndicate, 2 Feb 16 [via Today's Zaman/Turkey]:
Few observers doubt that China will have to let the renminbi exchange rate float freely sometime over the next decade. The question is how much drama will take place in the interim, as political and economic imperatives collide, writes fmr IMF chief economist

Jan Rivkin: The US economy is doing only half its job, Harvard Business Review, 15 Dec 15:
America is producing ample prosperity. The US economy powered out of the Great Recession faster than did other advanced economies. Large companies are prospering alongside the economy as a whole. Unfortunately, the success of big firms in the US is only half the story of the nation's economy, writes Harvard prof

Guido Calabresi: The relationship between Law and Economics, Yale Univ, 26 Jan 16:
A century and a half ago John Stuart Mill said of English philosopher and political radical Jeremy Bentham, in effect, that he approached the world as a stranger. And, if the world did not fit his theory, utilitarianism, he dismissed what the world did as nonsense, writes senior judge on the US Court of Appeals for the 2nd Circuit

Posted on Fri, 05 Feb 2016:

The cost of war and peace in the Middle East, World Bank, 4 Feb 16:
Wars cause devastating human suffering as well as long-term damage to a nation's economy and its infrastructure. Sounds obvious, but just how bad are the consequences of conflict? Quantifying how much better-off people in Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Yemen would have been without today's wars can give us some idea (Infographic -- Cost of war in Syria)

Robert Lawrence: Studies of the Trans-Pacific Partnership pact - which is credible?, Peterson Inst (blog), 29 Jan 16:
After listening to conflicting advice from his economists, Pres Harry Truman famously demanded to be briefed by a one-handed economist. And to the average citizen seeking enlightenment on the likely impact of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact, it must be similarly frustrating, writes Inst senior fellow / Harvard prof

Nook and cranny: Q&A - How to price a forest, and other economic problems, Nautilus, 3 July 14:
Cambridge economist Sir Partha Dasgupta has long argued for a broader measure of a country's wealth, and has worked on some of the most difficult challenges involved: How do you assign a dollar value to a forest? To human capital? How do humans understand long-term planning, and the effects of their actions on fellow citizens?

Posted on Wed, 03 Feb 2016:

Mohamed El-Erian: Is stagnation the 'new normal' for the world economy?, Project Syndicate, 3 Feb 16 [via Guardian]:
Just when the notion that Western economies are settling into a 'new normal' of low growth gained mainstream acceptance, doubts about its continued relevance have begun to emerge. Instead, the world may be headed toward an econ and financial crossroads, with the direction taken depending on key policy decisions, writes Pres Obama's Global Devt Council chair

Blanchard and Gagnon: Are US stocks overvalued?, Peterson Inst (blog), 1 Feb 16:
US stock prices rose for 7 years in a row through late last year. Popular indicators of stock valuation are above historical norms, even after the declines of the past few weeks. It is therefore no surprise to hear some analysts say stocks are overvalued, write fmr IMF chief economist; and fmr US Fed assoc dir

Q&A - Promoting effective charitable giving, Yale Univ, 22 Jan 16:
Choosing a cause to support is just the 1st step in charitable giving, warn experts. Discriminating donors should ask whether a nonprofit produces evidence of its effectiveness. An initiative launched in Dec by economist Dean Karlan and his former student helps donors identify effective charitable organizations

Posted on Mon, 01 Feb 2016:

Michael Spence: The ingredients for global growth, Project Syndicate, 1 Feb 16 [via WEForum (blog)]:
In '08, the Commission on Growth and Devt, which I had the privilege of chairing, produced a report updating our knowledge about sustainable growth patterns. Of course, there are many policies that sustain high growth, and to some extent they are country-specific. But a few key ingredients are common to all known successful cases, writes Nobel Laureate '01

Lex Rieffel: Can Aung San Suu Kyi's NLD party reform Myanmar's economy?, East Asia Forum, 25 Jan 16:
The National League for Democracy's econ goals pre-election were sketchy. Economists close to the NLD have said the agriculture sector will be a major priority. As NLD takes office, are the Myanmar people's expectations of what Suu Kyi's govt can accomplish in its five-year term realistic?, asks Brookings senior fellow

Balcony: Q&A - Why are some people happy, and others not?, Univ Chicago News, 25 Nov 15:
In an unassuming office in the univ campus, Philosophy Prof. Candace Vogler is working to answer some of the most vexing problems of human existence: What makes life good and meaningful? She is a principal investigator of "Virtue, Happiness and the Meaning of Life," a research project supported by the John Templeton Foundation

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