News and Analysis: 21-25 June 10 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

Based in: Manila, Philippines

Posted on Fri, 25 June 10:

G20 leaders arrive in Toronto rived by national interests: Leaders of the world's major economies began gathering Thu amid warnings that their failure to cooperate on core financial and econ issues could cost the world tens of millions of jobs. After crafting a common response to the financial crisis in the fall of '08 - one that saw nations from Communist-governed China to conservative Canada pull in the same direction - Group of 20 members arrive this time rived by newly asserted national interests. Many are at odds over details such as how fast and far some nations should cut public spending, and how strict new capital requirements should be for the world's major banks, Wash.Post (free registr reqd), 25 June 10

Eswar Prasad: Back from the brink, but a tough road still ahead for G20--The world economy took a pounding during the financial crisis. Just as it was finding its feet, the European debt crisis rocked it back on its heels. Despite all the warnings of doom, the world economy has in fact been quietly mending itself. The econ picture looks far better now than it did a yr ago, although some rough patches lie ahead. There is a deep tension now bet. measures to sustain the recovery and measures to bring govt deficits and other byproducts of stimulus progs under control, says Inst senior fellow/ Cornell U economist, Brookings Inst, 18 June 10 [pdf] (Recovery or relapse - G20's role in the global economy)

Mo Ibrahim: A hopeful Africa must prize leadership--In the 1st 2 yrs the foundation had 2 winners - Joaquim Chissano, Mozambique's fmr pres, and Festus Mogae, Botswana's fmr pres. Little known outside Africa, both have been outstanding statesmen and both have been worthy winners. This yr, like last yr, the prize cmte - chaired by fmr UN sec-gen Kofi Annan, who is independent of the board - has decided not to make an award. Does that mean that the found., established to celebrate good leadership in Africa, ended up proving that there is no such thing?, asks found. chair, Ibrahim Found., 14 June 10 (Found. announces decision not to award 2010 Ibrahim Prize)

Notice from the Publisher: There they go again. So, in case some of you are wondering why we did not post on Thu, 24 June, it was - again - due to a disruption in our workflow, similar to (but not the same as) what we already reported to our visitors last Jan, and just as deserving of blame and censure, EmergingFrontier Markets.com, 25 June 10

Posted on Wed, 23 June 10:

War Room: The runaway general--Stanley McChrystal, Obama's top commander in Afghanistan, has seized control of the war by never taking his eye off the real enemy: the wimps in the White House. Even though he had voted for Obama, McChrystal and his commander in chief failed from the outset to connect. The general 1st encountered Obama a wk after he took office, when the pres met w/ a dozen senior military officials in a room at the Pentagon known as the Tank. Acc to sources familiar w/ the meeting, McChrystal thought Obama looked "uncomfortable and intimidated" by the roomful of military brass, by Michael Hastings, Rolling Stone, 22 June 10 (McChrystal's statement of apology [courtesy Wash. Indep.]

Despite crisis, G20 govts largely resist protectionist pressures--A joint report on G20 trade and investment measures noted the imposition of fewer restrictions but warned "they are accumulating". It said that "w/ sovereign debt reaching dangerous levels, intl trade and investment offer a sustainable source of growth and development." The report has been prepared for the meeting of G20 leaders in Toronto on 26-27 June, OECD/ UNCTAD/ WTO, 14 June 10 (G20 keeps investment flows open, but continued vigilance needed, OECD/ UNCTAD)

Coffee/Tea Room: World's top 10 airlines announced at World Airline Awards--More than 17.9 million air travelers of more than 100 different nationalities took part in the 10-mth survey July '09 to Apr '10, which measured over 38 items of airline product and service standards. The survey results named Asiana Airlines as "airline of the yr", ahead of Singapore Airlines (2nd) and Qatar Airways (3rd), Skytrax, 20 May 10

Posted on Tue, 22 June 10:

Coffers: Global wealth stages strong comeback, but wealth managers still see challenges ahead - report: Assets under management rebounded last yr by 11.5% to just shy of '07 peak, and the no. of millionaire households jumped by 14% to 11.2 mil. - about where it stood at the end of '07, acc to the latest 10th annual global wealth report. US has the most millionaire households, followed by Japan, China, UK, and Germany. Singapore saw the highest growth in millionaire households, followed by Malaysia, Slovakia, and China. However, wealth managers still had to grapple w/ falling revenues and shrinking margins, Boston Consult. Group, 10 June 10

Tea with a warlord: War is always brutal, but the violence that erupts during civil war seems to bring out the worst in mankind. Political scientist Fotini Christia challenges that world-weary pessimism. Through her intrepid field research w/ Afghan warlords, she has steadily analyzed the personal, political, and cultural forces that cause a regional or tribal leader to take up arms vs a neighboring group, and what allows that same leader to put aside the guns and embrace a former enemy, MIT News, Nov '09 (Soundings Mag, Sep-Nov '09 | Measuring success in Afghanistan, BBC News, Feb '10)

Posted on Mon, 21 June 10:

Sebastian Mallaby: The politically incorrect guide to ending poverty--In the '90s, Paul Romer revolutionized economics. In the aughts, he became rich as a software entrepreneur. Now he's trying to help the poorest nations grow rich - by convincing them to establish foreign-run 'charter cities' within their borders. Romer's idea is unconventional, even neo-colonial - the best analogy is Britain's historic lease of Hong Kong. And against all odds, he just might make it, says Council on Foreign Relations (NY) senior fellow, Atlantic Mag, July-Aug '10

Stimulus vs austerity--Is Germany saving itself to death?: German Chancellor Merkel has chosen the path of austerity to push her nation out of a debt crisis that threatens to weigh on generations to come. 2 German economists - the heads of the Macroeconomic Policy Inst in Dusseldorf and the Cologne Inst Econ Res - debate the merits of the govt's savings program: Should Berlin cut back or spend to ensure econ health?, Der Spiegel, 15 June 10

Mohamed El-Erian: Sovereign wealth funds in the 'new normal'--These funds, essentially state-owned investment entities w/ long time horizons, are among the investors best equipped to navigate financial markets after the global crisis. Yet they too face potential challenges in steering a course through what is likely to be a multiyear, bumpy resetting of the global economy. How sovereign wealth funds confront these challenges will speak directly to their effectiveness in investing national wealth to benefit current and future generations, says CEO and co-CIO of the global invest. mgmt firm Pimco, Finance & Devt, June-Aug '10 [pdf]

Notice from the Publisher: We realize this is getting to be rather tedious, but in case some of you are wondering why we did not post on Fri, 19 June, it was - again - due to a disruption in our workflow, similar to (but not the same as) what we already reported to our visitors last Jan, and just as deserving of blame and censure, EmergingFrontier Markets.com, 21 June 10

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