News and Analysis: 5-16 Nov 2012 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

Based in: Manila, Philippines

Posted on Fri, 16 Nov 12:

Paul Blustein: The crisis may be over, but the world's financial institutions still aren't protecting us, Globe & Mail/Can.[courtesy Brookings], 11 Nov 12:
With all the crises besetting Pres Obama following his re-election, he is presumably giving little thought now to longer-term issues. But here is one problem that, if left to fester, could undercut his hopes for a healthy economy: the weaknesses of int'l institutions responsible for fostering global econ/financial stability, which include the IMF, the Financial Stability Board and the Basel Cmte on Banking Supervision, says fmr Wash.Post staff writer/senior visiting fellow at Ctr Int'l Governance Innov and Brookings

Mouse & wo/man: Petraeus case raises fears about privacy in digital era, NY Times [via Pittsburgh Post-Gazette], 13 Nov 12:
The FBI investigation that toppled the director of the CIA and now threatens to tarnish the reputation of the top US commander in Afghanistan underscores a danger that civil libertarians have long warned about: that in policing the Web for crime, espionage and sabotage, gov't investigators will unavoidably invade the private lives of citizens. On the Internet, and esp. in email, text messages, social network postings and online photos, the work lives and personal lives of citizens are inextricably mixed

Olive Room: 'Have you ever met an Arab kid your age?'--Tech as a common language, Cape Jewish Chronicle/S Africa, Feb '12
"Have you ever met an Arab kid your age?" I asked him. "No." "Would you ever like to meet an Arab kid your age?" At this point he started looking at me suspiciously and promptly changed the subject. The truth is many Jewish Israeli kids seldom get a chance to meet Arab kids, let alone Palestinians, many of whom live a few minutes away. An exceptional program in Jerusalem has succeeded in transcending this fear by creating a bridge between these 2 societies (Scaling walls, MIT Tech Rev)

Posted on Wed, 14 Nov 12:

'Stabilizing Greece is the least costly option,' Der Spiegel, 13 Nov 12:
Euro zone finance ministers agreed on Mon to give Greece 2 more years to meet its budget goals, but this was overshadowed by a rift between the ministers and the IMF over whether Greece should get a further debt cut. At the heart of the dispute is a disagreement over whether euro zone govts need to write off some of Greece's debt to them. The IMF thinks they should, but Germany is strongly opposed to a write-off because it would entail real losses to taxpayers

Who holds the cards in "fiscal cliff" game?, New York Times, 12 Nov 12 [via Herald Tribune]:
Pres Obama enters the coming budget negotiations with some clear advantages. Voters have just ratified his broad agenda. And the specific mixture of spending cuts and tax increases set to take effect on 1 Jan, unless the 2 parties can reach a deal, is far more consistent with his preferred long-term policies. Yet the pres also comes into the talks with a couple of important disadvantages. Crucially, nobody yet knows whether he is willing to go over the "fiscal cliff" (US fiscal policy--Avoiding self-inflicted wounds, IMF [blog])

City power, Knight Frank/Citi Wealth Report, 26 Mar 12:
With the seismic shifts taking place in economies, power structures and societies around the world, a very different economic landscape is developing in which the rise of the emerging economies looks set to be a permanent feature. But what does this mean for the world's global cities? Traditionally the likes of London and New York have reigned supreme, but will they be able to maintain their dominance in the face of growing competition?

Posted on Mon, 12 Nov 12:

Robert Shiller: Americans vote for pragmatic idealism, Proj Syndicate, 12 Nov 12 [via Gulf Times/Qatar]:
The idea that Obama lacks a plan is right in a sense: nothing he has proposed has been big enough to boost the US economy's painfully slow recovery from the 2007-9 recession, nor to insulate it from shocks coming from Europe and from weakening growth in the rest of the world. What Obama does have is a history of bringing in capable econ advisers. Is there anything more, really, that one can ask of a pres?, asks co-author, with George Akerlof, of Animal Spirits (2009)/Yale prof

Balance of economic power will shift dramatically over the next 50 years, says OECD, 9 Nov 12:
Fast-growing emerging-market economies will account for an ever-increasing share of global output, acc to a new report "Looking to 2060: A Global Vision of Long-term Growth". The US is expected to cede its place as the world's largest economy to China, as early as 2016. India's GDP is also expected to pass that of the US over the long term. Combined, the two Asian giants will soon surpass the collective economy of the G7 nations

Africa's counting house, Nature, 7 Nov 12:
Alex Bamunoba is not quite sure how many siblings he has. "My father was polygamous, so we ended up being very many," he says. "Something close to 30 brothers and sisters, with different stepmoms." But when it comes to a branch of pure mathematics, Bamunoba is on solid ground. He won a place in a PhD program in a S African university. The bridge that took him from a Ugandan village to a postgrad program is an institute started in '02 in order to recruit the brightest students from across Africa and match them up with a top-tier faculty (World Science Day--10 Nov)

Posted on Fri, 9 Nov 12:

Emerging economies halve their debt, Deutsche Welle, 6 Nov 12:
While the industrialized world has raked up a mountain of debt in the last 10 years amounting to almost 120% of GDP, emerging economies have managed to cut their debt in half. During the '90s almost all of the 10 largest emerging economies found themselves at least once in the midst of a serious financial crisis. But debt crises in these economies are now a thing of the past, acc to Deutsche Bank research, due to drastically improved external and public debt. Gov't debt in these 10 economies has on average dropped from 50 to 25% of GDP since 2000

David Cameron: Combating poverty at its roots, Wall Street Journal, 1 Nov 12:
There is an old debate between those who say the way to tackle global poverty is to spend more on aid and those who believe instead that the solution is to deal with the weak institutions, corruption and conflict in developing nations. The truth is that right now, we need to do both. And that means a radical new approach to supporting what I call 'the golden thread' of conditions that enable open economies and open societies to thrive, says co-chair of UN high-level panel on int'l dev't/UK prime minister (Acemoglu/Robinson: Why nations fail, David Cameron and the golden thread of dev't)

Calestous Juma: Africa's leadership fails billionaire Ibrahim's test, but technocrats rise, Forbes, 15 Oct 12:
The Mo Ibrahim Foundation has announced that it could not find a winner for its US$5 mln prize for good governance in Africa. The selection panel said no candidate had met all of the criteria, as was the case in '09 and '10. Two decades ago Africa's leadership was dominated by autocrats, many of whom had risen to power through military coups. But it appears that the road to democracy is being bridged by a rising technocracy, says co-chair of the African Union's high level panel on sci-tech/Harvard prof

Posted on Wed, 7 Nov 12:

Greece readies for crucial vote on new austerity measures, AP, 7 Nov 12 [auto-updating link courtesy CTV News/Can.]:
Greece's fragile coalition government faces its toughest test when lawmakers vote Wed. on new painful austerity measures demanded to keep the country afloat. The vote comes on the 2nd day of a 48-hour general strike which has shut down the public admin, left hospitals functioning on emergency staff and closed schools and tax offices. The parliament has to approve a package of spending cuts and tax increases agreed with the nation's int'l creditors so that it can continue receiving vital bailout loans

Global Trends - 4th Qtr, Eurasia Group/PwC, Oct '12 [PDF]:
The extraordinary breadth and depth of the current worldwide econ turmoil and its gradual stabilization create new uncertainties in int'l and local political environments. Now, more than ever, it is crucial to understand emerging global trends: 1) A cautiously optimistic case for post-election US; 2) Shifting dynamics in global downstream markets; 3) Central and Eastern Europe moves up the value chain; and 4) The end of abundance: Divergence among emerging markets will grow

Martin Feldstein: The US is unlikely to avoid 'fiscal cliff,' FT, 24 Oct 12 [courtesy Harvard]:
The US is rapidly approaching the 'fiscal cliff,' a dangerous combination of increased taxes and decreased gov't spending scheduled for 1 Jan that would reduce the budget deficit by 5% of GDP. Although reducing the budget deficit is necessary, such a sharp cut now while the economy is still very weak would be a serious mistake. If the fiscal cliff is not avoided, the economy would soon be in a new recession, which would have a negative impact on the global economy, says fmr chair of Pres Reagan's Council of Econ Advisers/Harvard prof

Posted on Mon, 5 Nov 12:

Joseph Stiglitz: America's global election, Proj Syndicate, 2 Nov 12 [via Guatemala Times]:
The world has a lot riding on America's election. Unfortunately, most people who will be affected by it--almost the entire world--will have no influence on the outcome. In terms of the economy, the effects of Romney's policies in creating a more unequal and divided society would not be directly felt abroad. But, in the past, for better and for worse, others have often followed America's example, says Nobel Laureate '01/fmr chair of Pres Clinton's Council of Econ Advisers (Taylor: An update on the Romney program for the economy, Author's blog)

Eswar Prasad: Global economic recovery hits the ropes, FT, 7 Oct 12 [courtesy Brookings Inst]:
Acc to the Brookings-FT 'Tracking indexes for the global econ recovery', the global recovery is on the ropes, battered by political conflicts within and across nations, lack of decisive policy actions, and govts' inability to tackle deep-seated problems such as unsustainable public finances that are stifling growth. Growth in global trade has weakened and the spectre of currency wars, with nations looking to maintain export competitiveness by keeping their currencies weak, has returned to the fore, says Inst senior fellow/Cornell U prof

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