News and Analysis: 19-30 Nov 2012 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

Based in: Manila, Philippines

Posted on Fri, 30 Nov 12:

The Palestinian private sector--Resilience in the face of harsh conditions, World Bank (blog), 27 Nov 12:
I recall the 1st time I visited Nakheel Palestine for the fields of Jericho 2 years ago, when our agency was still at the early stages of underwriting a project for planting date trees. The land was empty and the 1st thought that came to mind was "how can this be developed into arable land?" When our exec vice pres visited the site for the 1st time a couple of weeks ago, we found ourselves in fields filled with baby date trees. But as I write this. the West Bank/Gaza experienced another wave of violence (Investing to build a state)

A project in every port--An interview with the peripatetic dev't economist, Jeffrey Sachs, Finance & Dev't, Dec-Feb '13:
It is hard to imagine a more accomplished--and more varied--career than that of Jeff Sachs. All this has given Sachs a superstar status few economists enjoy. In '05, MTV aired a documentary of Sachs traveling in Africa with the actress Angelina Jolie. Earlier, he had toured with Bono, the lead singer of the band U2, as part of a campaign for debt relief. Sachs's work also provokes criticism that the policies he champions often have painful side effects, a charge he vigorously denies

Think-tank releases 'rule of law' rankings, World Justice Project, 28 Nov 12 [via Scoop/NZ]:
The Rule of Law Index 2012, an assessment tool that offers a comprehensive picture of adherence to the rule of law, is the 3rd in an annual series and includes, for the 1st time, a total of 97 nations. Released this week in Wash, DC, the report ranks nations across 8 areas impacting on the rule of law: limits on gov't power, corruption, security, fundamental rights, open gov't, regulatory enforcement, civil justice, and criminal justice. In East Asia/Pac, New Zealand ranks 1st, together with Australia, Japan, and Singapore (What is the rule of law?)

Posted on Wed, 28 Nov 12:

Euro group's deal on Greece far from the last word, Globe & Mail/Can., 27 Nov 12:
The new deal on Greece's bailout makes it clear that a series of small fixes will become a permanent feature in the save-Greece campaign because no European gov't or institution is willing to take big losses on its Greek bonds. Early Tue, after yet another marathon negotiating session by euro zone finance ministers, Greece emerged with an overhauled program. But it is conditional, incomplete and, crucially, does not remove the crushing weight of austerity on the economy, now entering its 6th year of recession

Robert Solow: Hayek, Friedman, and the illusions of conservative economics, New Republic, 16 Nov 12:
In the spring of 1947, Hayek was able to bring together a collection of 39 colleagues for 10 days in Vevey, Switz., to begin the work of transforming 19th-century liberalism and converting it into a force in the world. This was the birth of the Mont Pèlerin Society. The scene got more interesting when the de facto leadership of the society passed from Hayek to Friedman, 13 years younger and eventually altogether different in style and, to some extent, even in ideology, says Nobel Laureate '87/MIT emeritus prof

Branko Milanovic: The real winners and losers of globalization, Globalist, 25 Oct 12:
It is generally thought that 2 groups are the big winners of the past 2 decades of globalization: the very rich (those at the top of national and global income distributions) and the middle classes of emerging economies, esp. in China, India, Indonesia and Brazil. Until now, there was no single source by which these insights could be checked, confirmed, qualified or rejected, says author of The Haves and the Have-Nots: A brief and idiosyncratic history of global inequality (2011)/ World Bank senior economist

Posted on Mon, 26 Nov 12:

ASEAN economies show resilience, but narrowing dev't gaps is needed to sustain robust growth, says OECD, 18 Nov 12 [PDF]:
Growth for the 10 ASEAN economies will be 5.5% over the 2013/17 period, a robust rate matching the pre-crisis level of 2000/07. However, Southeast Asian govts need to strengthen action now to narrow social/econ disparities between nations in the region to sustain robust growth, says the latest Southeast Asian Economic Outlook 2013. The impact of global uncertainty, esp. from the Euro zone, is apparent but remains limited overall. The expansion of the middle class is likely to continue to boost domestic demand

Coffers: Measuring chance--Luck vs. skill in mutual fund performance, Univ Chicago, Sep-Nov '12:
Managers of active funds aim to outperform the stock market by picking what they think are the hottest stocks. When these managers succeed in beating the market, it may seem to investors that this is a sure sign of talent. But according to a recent study by Profs. Eugene Fama and Kenneth French, it is impossible to tell whether an active fund manager's stellar performance is due to skill or just sheer luck. In fact, they show that most active fund managers do not do better than would be expected by chance

C-Suite / Boardroom: Winning the $30 trillion decathlon, McKinsey, Aug '12:
Over the last 100 years, the title of "world's greatest athlete" has been given to the winner of the Olympic decathlon. The greatest competition of our age for businesses--one no truly global company can ignore--is the rise of the emerging world's new consumer class. Consumers in these markets hold the key to a $30 trillion prize that lies just over the horizon. Just as a decathlon requires the mastery of 10 events, we've distilled, with the help of colleagues, a set of 10 capabilities global firms need in emerging markets

Posted on Fri, 23 Nov 12:

Asian economies aim for trade deal as sea dispute set aside, Bloomberg, 21 Nov 12:
Three of Asia's 4 biggest economies, China, Japan and S Korea, started talks on a free-trade pact vital to an Asia-wide deal even as they spar over disputed islands. These talks are key to the 'Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership', a 16-nation accord also announced on 20 Nov that Southeast Asian nations called "the world's biggest regional free trade deal". Last week Secy of State Clinton welcomed other Asian nations to join the 11-country 'Trans-Pacific Partnership' that the US is negotiating (Asia-Pac leaders announce major regional trade talks, Int'l Ctr Trade & Sustainable Dev't)

Jeffrey Sachs: Gov't, geography, and growth--The true drivers of economic dev't, Foreign Affairs, Sep-Oct '12:
Acc to Acemoglu and Robinson, econ dev't hinges on a single factor: a nation's political institutions. The authors' story is soothing. Western readers will no doubt take comfort in the idea that democracy and prosperity go hand in hand and that authoritarian nations are bound to either democratize or run out of econ steam. Indeed, they predict that China will go the way of the Soviet Union, says special adviser to UN Sec-Gen/Columbia U Earth Inst dir (Acemoglu/Robinson: Response to Jeffrey Sachs)

Posted on Wed, 21 Nov 12:

Euro zone fails to reach deal on Greece aid, AP, 21 Nov 12 [courtesy Jakarta Post]:
EU officials failed on Wed. to reach a deal on giving Greece more aid, prolonging uncertainty over the future of the debt-hobbled nation and the 17-member euro zone. The chair of the meeting of finance ministers from the 17 nations that use the euro said the talks, which lasted nearly 12 hours, will reconvene on Mon. It was the 2nd consecutive meeting at which they failed to agree on a deal, highlighting the depth of their divisions over how to handle Greece's huge debt problem without reaching more deeply into the pockets of their own taxpayers

Ruchir Sharma: Broken BRICs--Why the Rest stopped rising, Foreign Affairs, Nov-Dec '12:
The most talked-about trend in the global economy has been the so-called rise of the Rest, which saw many developing economies swiftly converging with those of their more developed peers. The primary engines behind this phenomenon were the BRICs: Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The world was witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shift, the argument went, in which the major players in the developing world were catching up to their counterparts in the developed world, says author of Breakout Nations: In pursuit of the nest economic miracles (2012)

Money laundering and financing of terrorism--High-risk and non-cooperative jurisdictions, Financial Action Task Force, 19 Oct 12:
The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) is the global standard setting body for anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism. In order to protect the int'l financial system from money laundering/financing of terrorism risks, jurisdictions may be publicly identified in one of 2 public documents: 1) the FATF's 'Public Statement', which identifies jurisdictions that have strategic deficiencies and to which counter-measures apply; and 2) 'Improving Global Compliance: On-going Process'

Posted on Mon, 19 Nov 12:

Global shadow banking hits $67 trillion, says Financial Stability Board, Reuters, 19 Nov 12 [courtesy Times of India]:
The system of so-called 'shadow banking', blamed by some for aggravating the global financial crisis, grew to a new high of $67 trn globally last year, a top regulatory group said, calling for tighter control of the sector. A report on Sun. by the Financial Stability Board, a task force from the world's top 20 economies, appeared to confirm fears among policy makers that shadow banking is set to thrive, beyond the reach of a regulatory net tightening around traditional banks and banking activities

Stephen Groff: Myanmar has the potential to become Asia's rising star, S China Morning Post, 22 Aug 12 [courtesy ADB]:
Just last July I made my 1st visit to Myanmar, a place Rudyard Kipling referred to as "quite unlike any land you know about." While decades of isolation have helped this century-old observation hold true, on arrival I was immediately struck by the vibrancy and a palpable sense of change in the air. Half a century ago Myanmar was the 'Pearl of Asia', one of the region's leading economies, with a per capita income more than twice that of its neighbor, Thailand, says Asian Dev't Bank vice-pres

Don't know much about financial literacy, Richmond Fed, July-Sep '11[PDF]:
The events of the 2007-9 recession and its aftermath have brought the need for financial knowledge sharply into focus. Even prior to the crisis, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp observed that "the extraordinary transformation of consumer financial markets over the past decade has made financial literacy nothing less than an essential survival tool." What have we learned since the financial crisis about how to improve financial literacy? (Taiwan, NZ top Asia/Pac on financial literacy, MasterCard | Barometer on int'l financial literacy, Visa) [PDF]

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