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Posted on Fri, 21 Dec 12: Coffee/Tea Room: A perfect Christmas in the Holy Land, Time, 14 Dec 12: Put out of your mind the jingling sleigh bells, rosy-cheeked Santas and sizzling log fires. Instead, envisage Christmas in the Holy Land, which today stretches from Palestine's West Bank to Israel to the Mediterranean. Just one month ago, the conflict between Israel and Gaza threatened to spill into the wider region, and in the biblical cities of Nazareth and Bethlehem, relations between Christians and Muslims are sometimes tense. But now, in time for Christmas, peace reigns (Church of the Nativity and the Pilgrimage Route in Bethlehem, UNESCO World Heritage Ctr) 10 books that will change the way you think, Rand, 10 July 12: We recently asked our graduate school faculty: What books inspire you to train your sights on the most intractable problems of our time? To come up with innovative, persuasive, and enduring solutions? To ensure that no matter the topic, the problem is well formulated and the research approach is well designed and well executed? Posted on Wed, 19 Dec 12: Asia in 2013--Grounds for optimism, but challenges ahead, IMF Survey Mag, 18 Dec 12: After a subdued econ performance in emerging Asia in '12, growth is set to pick up gradually in '13 helped by external demand and accommodative monetary policy. External risks for Asia remain considerable, esp. those emanating from a further escalation of the euro zone crisis. In the event of a severe global slowdown, falling external demand would exert a powerful drag on Asia's most open economies (Mapping the world's shifting econ center of gravity [PDF], Nat'l Intel Council blog) Lawrence Summers: How to fix costly and unjust US tax system, FT, 16 Dec 12 [courtesy Harvard]: Sooner or later the US tax code will be reformed. Probably sooner. Raising revenue will be the main motivation, but there are also concerns about its complexity and its adverse effects on the economy. It has been observed that the greatest scandals are not the illegal things that people do but the things that are fully legal. This is surely true with respect to a tax code in urgent need of reform, writes fmr chair of Pres Obama's Nat'l Econ Council/Harvard prof (Feldstein: The tax hike canard, Foreign Aff) Banks and cross-border capital flows--Policy challenges and regulatory responses, Brookings, 26 Sep 12: The world has become more integrated, not just through trade but through financial flows. Financial integration offers many benefits but also poses risks. This observation points to the question of how best to benefit from greater financial integration while limiting adverse effects, says a new report by the Cmte on Int'l Econ Policy and Reform (CIEPR), a group of 18 independent econ experts made up of academics and fmr gov't/central bank officials, incl fmr Chilean central bank gov De Gregorio, Shin of Princeton, and Pisani-Ferry of Bruegel (Video at <www.brookings.edu/events/2012/09/26-capital-flows>) Posted on Mon, 17 Dec 12: Sovereign default and expropriation risks worry investors - report, World Bank, 6 Dec 12: Foreign investors, attracted by stronger econ growth in developing nations while mindful of risks, remain relatively optimistic about these destinations in the short term, acc to the results of a survey released in a report by the World Bank's Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency. The report, World Investment and Political Risk 2012, notes that half of the survey's respondents plan to increase investment in developing nations in the next 12 months (Investors and experts debate - Is the glass half full or half empty?) Coffers: Didier/Rigobon/Schmukler--Some pitfalls in global investing, VoxEU, 12 Nov 12: Since the '90s, a large proportion of world savings have gone to institutional investors that manage those assets by investing globally. Given this accumulation of resources in professional asset managers, you might expect to see significant int'l diversification, with many nations and firms benefiting from the influx of foreign capital. You might also expect investors to profit from holding well-diversified portfolios. Yet little evidence on the matter exists, say World Bank economists and MIT prof Layard: Well-being, mental health need to be the new frontier for the welfare state, London School of Econ, 7 Mar 12 [PDF]: How can we maximise people's happiness and which institutions, policies and norms will best achieve this goal? It was to answer this question that the subject of economics was developed--and it was why I became an economist. We can begin with the practical action. The 1st area here has been mental health. The results of our study show that mental health 8 years earlier explains 4 times as much of the misery in our society as does the level of current family income, says LSE Ctr Econ Performance founder/member of UK's House of Lords (Wellbeing and public policy, CentrePiece) Posted on Fri, 14 Dec 12: Japan tops list of healthiest countries, ABC News, 13 Dec 12: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, a large-scale collaboration funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation to assess trends in health and disease in 187 nations, has released its rankings of the top 10 nations with the highest healthy life expectancies. Healthy life expectancy is the number of years that a person can expect to live in good health. It takes into account number of deaths as well as years of health lost to disability (The report is at <www.thelancet.com/themed/global-burden-of-disease>) Should managers bother listening to predictions?, Harvard Univ, 5 Dec 12: We're uncertain these days about many things--the future of the European economy and the EU itself, the 'fiscal cliff' in the US, and the politics of the Middle East among them. Many corporate and personal plans are on hold. These may be uncertain times, but we've always been certain about 2 things: 1) predictions are never accurate, and 2) plans are obsolete the moment they are made (How 'black swans' and 'perfect storms' become lame excuses for bad risk mgmt, EurekAlert, Nov '12) Developing nations to receive over $400 bln in remittances in '12, World Bank, 20 Nov 12: Remittance flows to the developing world are expected to exceed earlier estimates and total $406 bln this year, an increase of 6.5% over the previous year, acc to a new World Bank brief on global migration and remittances. The top recipients of officially recorded remittances are India ($70 bln), China ($66 bln), Philippines and Mexico ($24 bln each), and Nigeria. Other large recipients include Egypt, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Lebanon From our archive (23 Nov 12): Sachs--Gov't, geography, and growth--The true drivers of econ dev't, Foreign Aff, Sep-Oct '12: Acc to Acemoglu and Robinson, econ dev't hinges on a single factor: a nation's political institutions. The authors' story is soothing. Western readers will no doubt take comfort in the idea that democracy and prosperity go hand in hand and that authoritarian nations are bound to either democratize or run out of econ steam. Indeed, they predict that China will go the way of the Soviet Union, says special adviser to UN Sec-Gen/Columbia U Earth Inst dir (Acemoglu/Robinson: Response to Jeffrey Sachs) Posted on Wed, 12 Dec 12: Report projects US as '1st among equals', but the 'unipolar moment' is over, US Nat'l Intelligence Council, 10 Dec 12: The world of 2030 will be radically transformed from our world today, acc to projections in a report done every 4 years by the intelligence community's top analysts. The report, Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, projects that by 2030 the US most likely will remain '1st among equals' among the other great powers, due to the legacy of its leadership role. But with the rapid rise of other nations, the 'unipolar moment' is over, and no nation--whether the US, China, or any other nation--will be a hegemonic power East Asian nations lead achievement in math, science, and reading, TIMSS & PIRLS Int'l Study Ctr, 11 Dec 12 [PDF]: Students from East Asian nations, as well as a select group of European nations, outperform students around the world in math, science, and reading at both the 4th and 8th grades, acc to results released by the Int'l Assn for the Evaluation of Educ Achievement and Boston College's Int'l Study Ctr for TIMSS (Trends in Int'l Math/Sci Study) & PIRLS (Progress in Int'l Reading Literacy Study). These are the results of 2 assessments involving 63 nations for TIMSS, and 49 nations for PIRLS Albert Hirschman--In memoriam, Inst for Advanced Study, 11 Dec 12: He was a development economist renowned for his lucid and innovative contributions to economics, the history of ideas, and the social sciences. He was a major participant in the discussion of the emergence of authoritarian regimes in Latin America in the '60s and '70s, and the return to democratic forms of governance in the '80s. His view of development acknowledges the complexity of human behavior and social reality
Posted on Mon, 10 Dec 12: Mohamed El-Erian: Don't forget the HOW of the 'fiscal cliff,' CNBC, 8 Dec 12: As we count down to the fiscal cliff deadline--just over 3 weeks away now--the media's entire focus is on what it will take to for Democrats and Republicans to agree on a 'deal' that averts another painful recession. But good analysis should not be limited to that. How the deal is reached is as important as if it is reached, and what it contains, says author of award-winning When Markets Collide (2008)/ CEO and co-chief invest. officer of global invest. firm PIMCO Ronald Coase: Saving Economics from the economists, Harvard Business Rev, Dec '12: Economics as currently presented in textbooks and taught in the classroom does not have much to do with biz management, and still less with entrepreneurship. The degree to which econ is isolated from the ordinary business of life is extraordinary and unfortunate. That was not the case in the past. When modern econ was born, Adam Smith's seminal work, The Wealth of Nations, was widely read by businessmen and stirred up debates among politicians, says Nobel Laureate '91/ U Chicago emeritus prof Lee Jong-Wha: Euro lessons for East Asia, Proj Syndicate, 7 Dec 12 [via Macau Biz Daily]: East Asian nations are unlikely to move toward a regional fixed exchange-rate system or a monetary union with a single currency in the immediate future, owing to the region's great diversity in terms of econ and political conditions. Perhaps, in a few decades, the region's nations will develop institutions to promote financial integration, such as a single bank supervisory agency of the type that the EU is now creating, says fmr Asian Dev't Bank chief economist/ senior adviser to the SKorean pres Posted on Fri, 7 Dec 12: IMF adopts institutional view on capital flows, IMF Survey Mag, 3 Dec 12: Global capital flows have increased dramatically in the last decade, from an average of less than 5% of global GDP during 1980-99 to a peak of about 20% by '07. In the past, nations' capital accounts have ranged from almost completely closed to completely open, and wide differences remain. The issue of when, how, and how much to liberalize capital flows has been one of the most contentious in the global econ policy debate for decades (Back to basics: Capital accounts--liberalize or not? | Blanchard: What I learnt in Rio--Discussing ways to manage capital flows) Middle class--Who are they?, Times of India, 1 Dec 12: Think-tanks across the world have made several attempts to define the Indian middle class over the last couple of years, but do these new definitions capture the reality? Economists are finding that it's not just the statistics that make the Indian middle class; there are also more complex philosophical questions. A clear statistical definition of the Indian middle class has long been elusive. Part of the problem is that the middle segment of India's income range is still poor by global standards Who suffers most from extreme weather events?, GermanWatch, 27 Nov 12: The Global Climate Risk Index 2013 analyzes to what extent countries have been affected by the impacts of weather-related loss events (storms, floods, heat waves etc.). This year's 8th edition reconfirms that less developed nations are generally more affected than industrialized nations The most recent available data from '11 as well as for the period 1992/2011 were taken into account. The most affected nations in '11 were Thailand, Cambodia, Pakistan, El Salvador and Philippines. For 1992/2011, Honduras, Myanmar and Nicaragua rank highest Posted on Wed, 5 Dec 12: Anti-graft watchdog releases corruption index, Transparency Int'l, 5 Dec 12: Denmark, Finland and New Zealand tie for 1st place as 'perceived to be very clean' in the Corruption Perceptions Index 2012, followed by Sweden and Singapore. Afghanistan, N Korea and Somalia once again cling to the bottom rung of the index. A growing outcry over corrupt govts forced several leaders from office last year, but as the dust has cleared it has become apparent that the levels of bribery, abuse of power and secret dealings are still very high in many nations City rankings--Vienna best in 'quality of living', Singapore in infrastructure, Mercer, 4 Dec 12: European cities continue to dominate the top of the rankings in 'quality of living', with Vienna, Zurich and Munich in the top 5. The survey is done yearly to help int'l orgs determine 'hardship' allowances to compensate expats for decreases in the quality of living between their home and host locations. It takes into account factors such as internal stability, law enforcement, crime levels and medical facilities. This year's survey separately identifies the cities with the best infrastructure, with Singapore, Frankfurt and Munich in the top 3 Robert Stavins: From Berlin to Durban to Doha, Environmental Forum, Nov-Dec '12 [courtesy Harvard, PDF]: In 1992, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change launched a process to confront the risks posed by global warming. Int'l negotiations continue this Dec in Doha, Qatar. Recent climate talks suggest the prospect for a better way forward. The time has come for innovative proposals for future int'l climate-policy architecture, not for incremental adjustments to the old pathway, says Harvard environ econ prog dir (UN Doha climate confab | Climate negotiators create an opportunity for scholars, Science | Heal: Planetary economics, Columbia U) Posted on Mon, 3 Dec 12: Greece launches bond buyback offer, tops expectations, Reuters, 3 Dec 12 [via Wkzo]: Greece said it would spend 10 bln euros to buy back bonds in a bid to reduce its ballooning debt and unfreeze long-delayed aid, setting a price range above market expectations to ensure sufficient investor interest. The bond buyback is central to the efforts of Greece's foreign lenders to put the near-bankrupt country's debt back on a sustainable footing. There have been questions about whether it will tempt enough bondholders to cut Greek debt by a net 20 bln euros, the target set by euro zone finance ministers and the IMF Manufacturing the future -- The next era of global growth and innovation, McKinsey, Nov '12: The global manufacturing sector has undergone a tumultuous decade: large developing economies leaped into the 1st tier of manufacturing nations, a severe recession choked off demand, and manufacturing employment fell at an accelerated rate in advanced economies. Still, manufacturing remains critically important to both the developing and the developed world. But the manufacturing sector has changed and neither biz leaders nor policy makers can rely on old responses in the new manufacturing environment Is the US condemned by history to slow growth?, Businessweek, 18 Oct 12: Most econ forecasters rely on the basic assumption that over time, growth will trend upward, and the ups will be greater than the downs. A group of economists who take the long view of history--a very, very long view--are now challenging the conventional wisdom. Before, growth was seen simply as more money plus more people equals more growth. MIT's Solow pointed out that tech had something to do with growth, too. Now Northwestern's Gordon argues that there's no reason to assume tech will continue to materialize |