News and Analysis: 16-30 Oct 2013 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

Based in: Manila, Philippines

Posted on Wed, 30 Oct 13:

'Doing Business' report shows countries removing barriers to business, World Bank-Intl Finance Corp, 28 Oct 13:
The new Doing Business 2014 report--an annual survey of the ease of doing biz around the world--finds an uptick in the pace of business regulation reform in the past year, with 114 economies enacting reforms, an 18% increaase from last year. Singapore and Hong Kong top the list of the most business-friendly places in the world, while Rwanda, Russia, and Philippines are among the most improved in the survey of 189 economies

Greenspan mulls roots of crisis he didn't foresee, AP, by M Crutsinger, 21 Oct 13:
Relaxed and looking fit at 87, he spoke with us for an hour in the sunroom of his house overlooking a wooded hillside of NW Wash. It's a home he shares with his wife Andrea Mitchell, NBC News anchor. He has now struck back at any notion that he--or anyone--could have known how or when to defuse the threats that triggered the crisis, as he argues in a new book (Book excerpt | UC Berkeley's DeLong: Greenspan has left the building, Proj Synd)

London's share of BRIC currencies trading grows strongly, City of London Corp, 11 Dec 12:
London has a leading share in the trading of 'non-deliverable forwards' in the BRIC currencies, acc. to a new report commissioned from the London School of Econ. NDFs are prevalent in currencies where unrestricted trading is not possible due to the existence of strong govt controls. BRIC currencies trading in London--Brazilian real, Russian ruble, Indian rupee and Chinese renminbi--grew by 70% from Apr '08-Apr '12 to USD 20 bil.

Posted on Mon, 28 Oct 13:

John McArthur: 23 months for the world to get organized, WEForum (blog), 16 Oct 13:
At last we have a roadmap. On 25 Sep, at a special event of the General Assembly, UN member states established a path for setting the post-2015 global devt agenda. After an extended sequence of significant reports in the past year, a short outcome document forged some core agreements, finessed some ongoing debates, and confirmed a basic timetable for the coming 2 years, writes fmr UN Millennium Proj dep dir / UN Found. senior fellow

R Cooper and J Remes: The still emerging markets, Project Syndicate, 14 Oct 13 [courtesy McKinsey]:
Emerging-market bears are missing an important new driver of continued growth in these nations: their increasingly powerful and dynamic firms. Twenty years ago, who would have guessed that India's Tata Group would be the largest private-sector industrial employer in the UK; or that Mexico's Cemex and Bimbo would become the US market leaders in cement production and bread-making, respectively?, ask Harvard prof and McK Global Inst partner

Edmund Phelps: 'Mass Flourishing' - How it was won, then largely lost (Part 1), OECD (blog), 19 Aug 13:
The epic story of the West is the development in the 19th century of a mass prosperity the world had never seen and its near-disappearance in one nation after another in the 20th. Mass Flourishing: How grassroots innovation created jobs, challenge, and change is a history linking this story to the rise and fall of homegrown innovation. It is also a text on the nature and sources of prosperity, writes Nobel Laureate '06 / author of the new book (Part Two)

Posted on Fri, 25 Oct 13:

Despite billions in aid, Afghans can't find work, AP, 25 Oct 13 [via Detroit News]:
Hundreds of men gather shortly before dawn at major intersections throughout Kabul and other Afghan cities. They seek work that is often backbreaking, always temporary and will earn just a few dollars for a day's work. Employers circle the intersections, eyeing the crowds. Dozens of men swarm their vehicle, fighting with each other to get one of perhaps 5 or 6 jobs available that morning (Here's the best thing the US has done in Afghan., Atlantic)

Asia recalls 1997 crisis as investors await Fed tapering, Dallas Fed Economic Letter, Oct '13 [PDF]:
China's finance minister has cautioned that the Fed should pay close attention to the spillover effect of tapering. His concern is understandable; the painful memory of the '97 Asian financial crisis, which was caused by abrupt capital outflows and subsequent contagion effects, remains fresh. Several Asian economies have experienced rapid asset-price run-ups in the past 4 years, which create a vulnerability that can trigger massive sell-offs

Break gridlock on global challenges or risk an unstable future - leaders panel, Oxford Univ, 16 Oct 13 [PDF]:
A diverse group of global leaders is calling for a radical shake-up in politics and business to deliver progress on climate change, reduce inequality, improve corporate practices and address the chronic burden of disease. In a report just released, the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations--chaired by Pascal Lamy, fmr World Trade Org head--argues for 'serious and urgent' reform in order to address key challenges facing humanity

Posted on Wed, 23 Oct 13:

Charles Kenny: A lot of aid doesn't work. That's a reason for reform, not retrenchment, Ctr Global Devt, 22 Oct 13:
Angus Deaton's new book The Great Escape is a must-read for those interested in devt. I have found it fascinating, incl his argument that aid doesn't work (mostly). Add to the anti-aid pile another must-read by Bill Easterly coming out next year. When 2 people as luminary as Deaton and Easterly agree on something and you don't, that's a reason to check you aren't the one in the dark--or at the least not wearing rose-tinted Ray-Bans, writes Ctr senior fellow

Emerging markets need 'second generation' of reforms, IMF Survey Mag, 10 Oct 13:
At a seminar on 'Emerging markets: Restoring the momentum' at the IMF-WB annual meetings, a panel of experts observed that most emerging markets have reaped substantial benefits over the past decade from cheap capital, high commodity prices, and strong growth in China. But a recent tightening in global financial conditions is exposing a divergence among them -- some have strengthened fundamentals, while others simply rode the wave of good fortune

Hubbard and Kane: Institutions and the Chinese economy, past and present, American Mag, 25 July 13:
An older, orthodox view holds that China was simply backward compared to the West, a view passed down through 19th-century colonial prejudices. This view is, of course, incorrect. China was once the world's leading econ power, but over time it fell behind the West. Why did this happen? And can it return to its earlier greatness?, ask Columbia U Business School dean and Hudson Inst chief economist

Posted on Mon, 21 Oct 13:

Pulling the tablecloth out from under development efforts - without breaking a glass, World Bank, by B Lukas, 18 Oct 13:
Development is like setting the table. Cutlery and crockery are the cities we build. Arranging the plates is building the infrastructure we need for these cities to function. But every now and then, someone pulls at the tablecloth. These tugs at the tablecloth are the hazards nature throws at us--the quakes, storms or droughts we face, the disasters that can significantly set back fragile devt progress in mere minutes (2014 World Development Report on managing risk)

Arvind Subramanian: It is too soon to mourn emerging markets, FT, 7 Oct 13 [courtesy Peterson Inst]:
The party is over. Gloom about emerging markets' growth prospects is based in large part on the deterioration in the very favorable external economic environment they have enjoyed in the past decade: high commodity prices and cheap capital. But medium-term emerging market growth is misunderstood, writes Inst senior fellow / fmr IMF research dept asst director

Christian Ketels: Why future prosperity requires a new model of public-private collaboration, Diplomatic Courier, 7 Aug 13:
The global economy has had a number of difficult years. Emerging markets need a growth strategy that moves beyond exports based on cheap labor or increasing capital intensity. And natural resource exporters need diversification to overcome the pitfalls of their narrow econ base. It is easy to identify the need for a new growth model; the hard part is to describe what it should be, writes Competitiveness Inst pres / leader of Michael Porter's team at Harvard

Posted on Fri, 18 Oct 13:

Emerging market multinational companies -- ready for prime time?, Transparency Intl, 17 Oct 13:
A new report, which assesses the corporate reporting practices of 100 large multinational firms from 16 emerging markets, shows that Chinese firms has the lowest scores among the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and SAfrica). 75 firms in the report come from the BRICS. Scores were based on public info about anti-corruption measures, transparency in reporting, on how the firms structure themselves, and the amount of financial info they provide

Charles Wolf: The strategy behind China's aid expansion, Wall St Journal, 9 Oct 13 [courtesy Rand Corp]
A 2-year study published in Sep, by Wang, Warner and me, documents the massive size of China's foreign-aid programs. Part of the expansion reflects the growth in China's economy. But this is an increase with a purpose, and its foreign-aid programs are as different from those conducted by the US and other OECD countries as East is from West, writes Corp's chair in intl econ / Hoover Inst senior fellow

Angus Deaton: Weak states, poor countries, Project Syndicate, 24 Sep 13:
In Scotland, I was brought up to think of policemen as allies and to ask one for help when I needed it. Imagine my surprise when, as a 19-year-old on my 1st visit to the US, I was met by a stream of obscenities from a NY City cop who was directing traffic in Times Square after I asked him for directions to the nearest PO, writes Princeton prof / author of The Great Escape: Health, wealth, and the origins of inequality, named in 2013's "best biz book" longlist

Posted on Wed, 16 Oct 13:

Default or not, US already has endangered its credit rating, McClatchy News, 15 Oct 13 [via Kansas Star]:
Credit ratings agencies may not wait for a default to downgrade US govt creditworthiness. Standard & Poor's downgraded US govt bonds from AAA to AA amid the Aug '11 debt-ceiling debacle. The other 2 major ratings agencies--Moody's and Fitch--didn't follow suit at the time. But Fitch said late Tue that it had put the US on a watch list, meaning US bonds might be downgraded. And S&P also doesn't rule out a downgrade

Global hunger index calls for greater resilience to boost food security, Intl Food Policy Res Inst, 14 Oct 13 [PDF]:
The 2013 Global Hunger Index, released by IFPRI, Concern Worldwide, and Welthungerhilfe, indicates that global hunger is decreasing. Yet world hunger still remains 'serious', with 19 nations suffering from levels of hunger that are either 'alarming' or 'extremely alarming'. The persistent vulnerability of regions--such as the Sahel and the Horn of Africa--suggests the traditional separation of relief and dev't efforts is not working

Global wealth reaches new all-time high, Credit Suisse, 9 Oct 13:
Despite a decade of negative real returns on equities and the collapse of housing bubbles, the 2013 Wealth Report finds that global wealth has more than doubled since 2000. Average wealth per adult has also hit a new peak, but inequality remains high. The bottom half of the global population own less than 1% of total wealth. In contrast, the top 10% hold 86% of the world's wealth, and the top 1% account for 46% of global wealth

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