News and Analysis: 2-14 Oct 2013 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

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Posted on Mon, 14 Oct 13:

Nobel Laureates in Economics: Eugene Fama, Lars Hansen, and Robert Shiller, Nobel Foundation, 14 Oct 13 [PDF]:
U Chicago's Fama and Hansen and Yale's Shiller are this year's Laureates "for their empirical analysis of asset prices". There is no way to predict whether the price of stocks and bonds will go up or down over the next few days or weeks. But it is quite possible to foresee the broad course of the prices of these assets over longer time periods, such as the next 3-5 years. These findings, which may seem both surprising and contradictory, were made by the 3 (Q&A on the Nobel Prize in Econ)

Expeditionary economics - Make entrepreneurs, not war, Milken Inst Rev, by R Looney, Apr-June '13 [PDF]:
What is the point of spending trillions of dollars and hundreds of thousands of lives (Western and Afghan) to secure a hostile nation if the econ mess we leave is as bad as the one we inherited? Hence, the emergence of a new field in econ, dubbed 'expeditionary econ' by Carl Schramm, Kauffman Found.'s fmr head. The concept focuses on the development side of the military equation, writes econ prof at Naval Postgraduate Sch (Monterey, Calif)

Prasad and Foda: Soaring reserves put renminbi back in the spotlight, FT, 15 Apr 13 [courtesy Brookings]:
Rising capital inflows have led to a surge in accumulation of reserves as China's central bank tries to fend off pressures for the RMB to appreciate. Greater exchange rate flexibility remains in China's interest and would also help pave the way for eventual convertibility of the RMB, write Inst senior fellow and analyst (The future of offshore and onshore RMB, Intl Fin Law Rev | Hong Kong holds aces as London tries to become offshore RMB hub, QFinance)

Posted on Fri, 11 Oct 13:

House Republicans, White House seeking end to budget fight, AP, 11 Oct 13 [Auto-updating link]:
After weeks of ultimatums, Pres Obama and congressional Republicans are exploring whether they can end a budget standoff that has triggered a partial govt shutdown and edged Wash. to the verge of a historic federal default. The 2 sides planned to continue discussions Fri, a day after Obama and admin officials met with House Republican leaders. For the 1st time, hopes emerged that a resolution might be attainable, even if only a temporary one

What are the steps to prioritize and deliver infrastructure effectively and efficiently?, PwC-World Econ Forum, Oct '12:
Infrastructure investment, whether it is maintaining existing networks or building new assets, is critical to econ progress. Most nations are not investing enough, which is hampering their growth prospects and deferring an ever increasing burden to the years ahead. Yet, there is no succinct manual available to help policy makers in selecting and prioritizing their infrastructure needs beyond the constraining logic of political cycles

Advantage, Arnaud, MIT News, 11 Oct 13:
If you start talking intl trade with Arnaud Costinot, chances are he will have an advantage over you. An MIT economist who specializes in trade, he has an easy command of a large set of facts, models, and ideas in the field. He grew up in the French city of Dunkerque, which made a big impression on him--as he watched its shipbuilding business disappear, and its commercial port shrink. It was an early lesson in the instabilities, and local effects, of intl trade

Posted on Wed, 9 Oct 13:

Olivier Blanchard: Advanced economies strengthening, emerging economies weakening, IMF (blog), 8 Oct 13:
The issue probably foremost on everyone's mind is the US fiscal situation. While the shutdown, if it does not last very long, has limited econ consequences, failure to lift the debt ceiling would, however, be a game changer. Its effects would be felt right away, leading to potentially major disruptions in financial markets, both in the US and abroad, writes IMF chief economist, on leave from MIT (How emerging markets can get their groove back)

Paul Collier: Why the Left should break the migration taboo, Social Europe Journal, 10 Sep 13:
All high-income nations are facing accelerating migration from poor nations. Long distance intl migration is too costly for very poor people to afford. But as diasporas accumulate in host nations, they make migration easier by providing a network, a place to stay, and finance. As migration accelerates and diasporas grow, social diversity tends to increase, writes author of Exodus: How migration is changing our world (Oct 2013) / Oxford U prof

Can the Nobel Laureate in Economics be predicted?, Thomson Reuters ScienceWatch, Sep '13:
This year's group of 'Citation Laureates'--researchers whose landmark discoveries, not to mention their measurable esteem in the scientific community--place them within reach of science's highest prize. Among them, these economists have shown themselves to be 'of Nobel class': Oxford's Hendry, U Chicago's Peltzman and Posner, MIT's Angrist, Cambridge U's Pesaran, Yale's Phillips, UC-Berkeley's Card and Princeton's Krueger (Methodology | Successful predictions)

Posted on Mon, 7 Oct 13:

With Obama out, others take APEC stage, sort of, AP, 7 Oct 13:
As some of the world's heavyweight leaders stood in the spotlight Mon at a regional econ summit, they still managed to be upstaged by who was missing. Even US Secy of State Kerry poked fun at himself while standing in for Pres Obama, saying when he worked to replace a pres nearly a decade ago, "this is not what I had in mind". Meanwhile, the dozen nations involved in the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership were haggling over their plans for a free trade area for the region

Kemal Dervis: The end of convergence?, Project Syndicate, 3 Oct 13:
Until recently, there was a broad consensus that this was to be the emerging markets' century. But the mood has changed, and the 'median' projection of emerging economies' growth prospects has shifted. LatAm economists are particularly pessimistic. After revising downward in July its growth projections for emerging nations, the IMF is about to do so again. Do recent events mean that 'convergence' is ending?, asks Brookings vice pres / fmr head of UNDP

Attention: This article contains too much information, Allianz's Project M, Mar '12:
One often cited popular truism has it that Sun's New York Times contains more information than a medieval peasant would have encountered throughout his entire life. Given this unprecedented access to info, you may expect people to have become wiser decision-makers. After all, there is a widely held belief that more info always improves decisions. Not necessarily so, says a Duke U prof of biz, psych and neuroscience

Posted on Fri, 4 Oct 13:

What would a US default look like?, Reuters, 4 Oct 13 [via Emirates 24/7, Dubai]:
Nobody knows exactly when America would default on its bills if Congress fails to raise a cap on govt borrowing. But the recent past gives a pretty good idea of how a default could unfold. We can infer how quickly the govt might run out of cash by looking at the equivalent of the Treasury's daily bank statements from the same period a year ago. What follows is a timeline that shows what a default might look like

The Asian century -- reality or hype?, International Economy Mag, June/Aug '13 [PDF]:
For some time, conventional wisdom has argued that the 21st century will be dominated by Asia while America's global importance declines. The new Asian century will therefore entail a dramatic global power shift. Are we now living in the 2nd decade of the Asian century? 35 experts offer their views, incl R Cooper, C Hills, G Hufbauer, R Katz, C Morrison, W Overholt, W Rhodes, J Schott, C Wolf, S Wei, and M Wolf, to name just a few

Daniel Kaufmann: Rethinking the fight against corruption, Huff Post, 29 Nov 12 [courtesy Brookings Inst]:
Corruption is a symptom of a larger disease--the failure of institutions and governance, resulting in poor management of revenues and resources and an absence of delivery of public goods and services. Merely adopting a new anti-corruption law or launching another 'campaign' will not get the job done, writes Inst senior fellow and Revenue Watch Inst pres / co-producer of the Worldwide Governance Indicators [WGI]) (WGI 2013 edition)

Posted on Wed, 2 Oct 13:

Beyond the govt shutdown, there's a bigger battle brewing, National Public Radio, 1 Oct 13 [via WBUR]:
This week's govt shutdown could be just a warmup for an even bigger budget battle in a couple of weeks. Congress has to raise the limit on the amount of money the federal govt is allowed to borrow by 17 Oct. If the debt ceiling is not raised on time, Pres Obama warns that Washington won't be able to keep paying its bills. No one is exactly sure what would happen next. But experts agree that the fallout could be scary and far-reaching

Sweden best place to grow old, says 1st-ever global ageing index, HelpAge Intl/UN Pop. Fund, 1 Oct 13:
A new index to measure the quality of life and wellbeing of older people around the world has been released, which was developed with the support of the UN Population Fund. The index, which covers 91 nations, combines indicators for the 4 areas of income security, health status, employment and education, as well as the enabling environment. The top 3 nations are Sweden, Norway and Germany (Country rankings)

Boardroom/C-suite: It's official -- the end of competitive advantage, Forbes, by S Denning, 2 June 13:
"Strategy is stuck," says Columbia U's Rita McGrath, one of the world's leading experts on strategy. "Virtually all strategy frameworks and tools in use today are based on a single dominant idea: that the purpose of strategy is to achieve a sustainable competitive advantage. This idea is strategy's most fundamental concept. And it's no longer relevant for more and more companies" (McGrath: Five big trends in business innovation)

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