News and Analysis: 18-27 Feb 2013 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

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Posted on Wed, 27 Feb 13:

Reinhilde Veugelers: The implications of Asia's scientific rise, Bruegel (blog), 25 Feb 13:
Several Asian govts have come to view science as integral to econ growth, and have consequently taken steps to develop their science infrastructures. This holds most for China, but is also true for SKorea, Taiwan and Singapore. Does a shift of scientific power to Asia mean that the flows of scientific talent from East to West will dry up, and are Asian scientific centers new cooperation partners in science for the West?, asks Bruegel senior fellow (The world innovation landscape - Asia rising?)

Harvard's economist from India helps France beat Euro straitjacket, Bloomberg, 7 Feb 13:
When French Pres Hollande unveiled a plan in Nov for a business tax credit and higher sales taxes as a way to revive the economy, he was implementing an idea championed by economist Gita Gopinath. She has pushed for tax intervention as a way forward for euro-area nations that cannot devalue their exchange rates. Her path to becoming an economist and the 1st Indian woman to receive tenure at Harvard began almost by chance in the Indian city of Mysore where she grew up

Greg Mankiw: Wishful thinking and middle-class taxes, NY Times, 30 Dec 12 [PDF, courtesy Harvard]:
Republicans and Democrats agree on the nature of the problem, but they embrace very different solutions. If Republicans had their way, they would focus the entire solution on the spending side. They say that reform of the entitlement programs can reduce their cost. Democrats want to preserve the social safety net pretty much as is. They focus their attention on raising taxes on the most financially successful, contending that the rich are not paying their 'fair share', writes fmr chair of Pres G W Bush's Council Econ Advisers / Harvard prof

Posted on Mon, 25 Feb 13:

W Choi and R Dobbs: Renewing the South Korean miracle, Proj Syndicate, 22 Feb 13:
SKorea's new pres, Park Geun-hye, takes over a nation that has been a global role model for econ dev't. A measure of its success is that it was the 1st to make the transition from being a recipient of OECD aid to becoming a donor, with per capita GDP today exceeding $30,000. But the growth formula that long underpinned its success--a form of state-guided capitalism that focuses on export-led manufacturing--is no longer working for many SKoreans, write Mckinsey's SKorea managing dir, and its Global Inst dir

This is not a profile of 'Black Swan' author Nassim Taleb, Chronicle Review, by T Bartlett, 17 Dec 12:
I had lunch with Nassim Nicholas Taleb. It didn't go well. We met at a French cafe in Manhattan. Best known as the author of The Black Swan, a book about how we underestimate the improbable, he isn't much for interviews and regards most journalists as fools and phonies, right alongside professional academics and bureaucrats. He avoids all fruits without a Greek or Hebrew name because his ancestors would not have eaten them. And he drinks only beverages that are at least a thousand years old. Don't offer the man an orange Shasta

Data scientist - the sexiest job of the 21st century, Harvard Business Rev, by T Davenport and D Patil, Oct '12:
Back in the '90s, computer engineer and Wall Street 'quant' were the hot occupations in biz. Today data scientists are the hires firms are competing to make. The 'data scientist' is a high-ranking professional with the training and curiosity to make discoveries in the world of big data. The title has been around for only a few years. It was coined in '08 by one of us, Patil, and Hammerbacher, then the respective leads of data and analytics at LinkedIn and Facebook

Posted on Fri, 22 Feb 13:

Q&A on the 'sequester' - What does the US economy face?, AP, 21 Feb 13 [via Leader-Telegram]:
Here comes the sequester: big federal spending cuts and a new season of econ uncertainty for a nation still trying to shake off a recession. The politics of sequestration have been fierce, the finger-pointing incessant. And, to no one's surprise, what was designed as a way out of one Washington standoff has produced another one--and more. A week out from the 1 Mar deadline, there are no meaningful efforts in Wash. to avert the punishing automatic cuts set out in a law nearly 2 years ago

Claude Barfield: Crunch time for the Trans-Pacific trade pact. Real Clear Markets, 6 Dec 12 [courtesy Amer Enterp Inst]:
Just what is the Trans-Pacific Partnership and why is it so significant? The current negotiations grew out of a 4-nation agreement (P-4) concluded in '06 by Chile, New Zealand, Brunei, and Singapore. Subsequently, Australia, Peru, Vietnam, and the US signed on, followed in '10 by Malaysia and most recently by Mexico and Canada, writes Inst resident scholar / fmr consultant US Trade Rep ofc (Solis: Don't let the Trans-Pacific Partnership fade, Brookings)

Can big data deliver on its promise?, OECD Observer, by M Durand, 4th Qtr '12:
Did you know that, acc to the UN Global Pulse, more data was created in 2011 than in the whole of human history, or at least, since the invention of the alphabet? Tech and social innovations are resulting in huge flows of new data every day. This proliferation of so-called 'big data' has the potential to change the way information is collected and used to inform policymaking. New sources of data are increasingly providing real-time info to analysts and policy makers

Posted on Wed, 20 Feb 13:

Coffers: Frontier markets - where picking stocks is paying off, Businessweek, 7 Feb 13:
Fund managers who focus on the world's least-developed markets are trouncing their benchmark index--something most investors routinely fail to do. Mark Mobius's Templeton Frontier Markets Fund and 12 similar funds investing in nations from Vietnam to Nigeria and Romania earned an average 24% last year, topping the 8.4% gain in the MSCI Frontier Markets Index. Their edge comes from uncovering undervalued stocks in markets where there aren't crowds of well-informed investors

Raghuram Rajan: Debt-driven demand--Why the stimulus has failed, Univ Chicago, 26 Jan 13:
Two fundamental beliefs have driven econ policy around the world in recent years. The 1st is that the world suffers from a shortage of aggregate demand relative to supply; the 2nd is that monetary and fiscal stimulus will close the gap. Is it possible that the diagnosis is right, but that the remedy is wrong?, asks recipient of '13 Deutsche Bank prize in financial econ / Indian govt's chief econ adviser (Tyson: Meeting America's growth challenge, Proj Synd) [via Les Echos/Fr.]

Barry Carin: Post-2015 development goals--can they be smart?, Ctr Int'l Governance Innov/Can., 7 Jan 13:
The UN has unleashed a bewildering range of consultation activities on what should succeed the Millennium Dev't Goals when they expire. Can this bouillabaisse of processes and cacophony of advocates produce an agreed dev't framework? The multitude of suggestions--every interest group will press their own priority--should be screened based on the potential to assess and measure progress, writes Ctr senior fellow / fmr senior Canadian gov't official (Special report proposing 'one-world' approach to post-2015 dev't goals presented at UN)

Posted on Mon, 18 Feb 13:

Is the world on a binge of currency devaluation?, Q&A - Part One | Part Two, Peterson Inst, 8 Feb 13 [PDF]:
Inst senior fellows Joseph Gagnon and William Cline discuss the criteria for judging currency activities by the US, China, Japan, Switzerland, and others. Q: We're talking about the phenomenon of currency manipulation and exchange rate fluctuations. Bill, Joe just said that he sees a danger of nations engaging in this kind of activity again. How do you see it?; By the three criteria that you mentioned, how do we assess what China is doing today?; On Japan, do you give them a pass a little bit or are you concerned?

IIF releases new edition of 'capital flows to emerging markets' report, Inst Int'l Finance, 22 Jan 13:
Private capital flows to emerging markets have revived strongly since mid-'12, says a new report. The latest round of easing by the US Fed has given rise to a debate over the fundamental drivers of capital flows to emerging markets. Is it due to a 'push' factor--ie, the relaxed monetary policy and the prospect of poor returns in mature economies are pushing money out of those markets? Or is it instead due to the strong growth in emerging markets, combined with their higher interest rates, which is 'pulling' more funds into those nations?

India's "Gujarat model" promises accelerated, all-around progress - Columbia's Bhagwati & Panagariya, Times of India, 2 Jan 13:
Bhagwati's latest book, India's Tryst with Destiny: Debunking myths that undermine progress and addressing new challenges (Nov '12), co-authored with his Columbia colleague, argues that growth can reduce poverty and that slow econ growth will hurt social dev't. In a Q&A, the authors revive the "Kerala model vs Gujarat" debate and attack economists such as Nobel Laureate Amartya Sen for his "anti-growth assertions" (Gujarat's high growth rate does not make it a model - Berkeley's Bardhan, Headlines India)

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