News and Analysis: 1-15 Mar 2013 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

Based in: Manila, Philippines

Posted on Fri, 15 Mar 13:

Human development index shows major gains since 2000 in most developing nations, UNDP, 14 Mar 13:
Norway, Australia and the US lead the rankings of 187 nations in the latest human development index, while conflict-torn Dem. Rep. of Congo and drought-stricken Niger have the lowest scores in the index's measurement of national achievement in health, education and income, acc to the latest Human Development Report. Yet Niger and the Dem.Rep. of Congo, despite their continuing dev't challenges, are among the nations that made the greatest strides in improvement since 2000

Alberto Alesina: The kindest cuts, Manhattan Inst City Journal, Oct-Dec '12:
Should debt-ridden and economically struggling Western govts be doing everything possible to reduce their deficits? The debate over that question has become increasingly confusing--not only in Europe, where the matter is esp. urgent, but in the US too. Those in favor of immediate deficit reduction argue that it is a necessary precondition of econ growth. Today's deficits become tomorrow's debt and too much debt can bring fiscal crises, writes Harvard prof (Krugman: Night of the living Alesina--Part One | Part Two, NYT)

Strengthened confidence among emerging markets consumers--survey, Credit Suisse, 1 Feb 13:
Confidence among emerging consumers has strengthened over the course of the last year, says an annual survey profiling consumer sentiment within the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) along with Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and, for the 1st time in this 3rd edition, SAfrica. Of just over 14,200 adults included in the survey across 8 nations, 37% thought their personal finances would improve over the next 6 months and 9% expect some deterioration (a 3% net improvement over last year)

Posted on Wed, 13 Mar 13:

The radical nature of development in the near future is already assured, Guardian, by J Glennie, 12 Mar 13:
Discussions over the next 15 months or so are likely to frame the global dev't story for the next 15 years, with many in the world of aid and dev't traveling to meetings on what should come next after the Millennium Dev't Goals expire in '15. With a pending UN high-level panel report on post-2015 dev't, that has to be signed off by the not-exactly-progressive British PM who is one of its co-chairs, you might be concerned the outcome will be a lowest common denominator mishmash that will please everyone and no one

Is a country's per capita income determined by its culture?, Times of India, 8 Feb 13:
At UCLA, Romain Wacziarg teaches 'Biz Environment in India', a course that brings him here with a new batch of students every year. He is designated an 'Overseas Citizen of India', which gives him a certain latitude, e.g., he can delve into sensitive issues on the relationship between India's culture and its low per capita income, without raising too many hackles. He likes to start his course by asking his students to estimate how long it would take India to catch up with America's per capita income (Want a better democracy? Build better primary schools, Globe & Mail)

Ex-White House economic advisers spar over the economy, Stanford Univ, Jan '13:
It wasn't exactly a love fest. But what had been billed as a shootout between two heavyweight economists at opposite ends of the political spectrum--Stanford's Keith Hennessey, a key econ policy maker in the 2nd Bush admin, and UC Berkeley's Christina Romer, who was a top econ adviser in the Obama admin--generated a surprising amount of agreement on the hottest fiscal issues of the day, the debt ceiling, federal deficit, and econ growth

Posted on Mon, 11 Mar 13:

Juliette Kayyem: Safety vs recovery after disasters, Boston Globe, 11 Mar 13:
After any disaster, the tendency is to stop everything: Close the borders in the case of terrorism, shut down offshore oil drilling after an oil spill, or decommission all nuclear plants in the case of an accident. But that instinct is always offset, and more often than not supplanted by, a greater desire: the desire to rebound. Two years ago today, Japan suffered an epic disaster, writes Harvard faculty member / fmr Homeland Security asst. secy. (Taiwan anti-nuclear protests may derail $8.9 bln power plant, Bloomberg)

New products, more value can advance economic take-off, IMF Survey Mag, 4 Mar 13:
To reach the next level of development, low-income nations should strive to transform the structure of their economies by diversifying into new sectors and producing new, higher value-added products, speakers told a gathering at the IMF in Feb. In much of the developing world, sustained econ take-off remains elusive, and growth often relies on traditional, commodity-producing sectors, noted participants at the conference

C-Suite/Boardroom: Shane Greenstein--The prevailing view, Northwestern Univ, 16 Oct 12:
Talk to the management at leading tech firms in the same market, and the similarities in opinions are striking. Most hold roughly the same set of opinions, beliefs, and ideas about how specific actions lead to successful business outcomes. For lack of a better phrase, I call this the 'prevailing view'. It can persist for a long time, and it can change, sometimes slowly and other times quickly. Where does the prevailing view come from, and how does it shape econ outcomes?, asks Northwestern prof

Posted on Fri, 8 Mar 13:

Caroline Anstey: The price of violence against women and girls, BBC News, 7 Mar 13:
In Ethiopia, 81% of women think there are plenty of reasons why a husband can beat his wife. In Guinea, 60% of women believe it is reasonable that their spouses beat them for saying no to sex. As sobering as these stats are, they are not new. Violence against women is endemic around the world, in rich societies and in poor. Apart from the obvious physical and emotional toll, what's the true price tag of this violence?, asks World Bank Group managing dir (Int'l Women's Day)

Charles Kenny: How the developing world escaped the debt trap, Businessweek, 3 Mar 13 [courtesy Ctr Glob Dev't]:
Developing nations used to rule the roost when it came to debt crises and defaults. But after a painful period of policy reform supported by considerable debt relief and restructuring, they were in a far stronger position by the end of the last decade. However, the lessons for Europe aren't straightforward, and they are even less so for the US. Any lessons probably apply to the next crisis--but there they apply to everyone. Today Greece. The day after tomorrow: back to Latin America and Asia?, asks Ctr senior fellow

New insight into how people choose insurance plans, MIT News, 27 Feb 13:
Economists often talk about 'moral hazard', the idea that people's behavior changes in the presence of insurance. In finance, for instance, investors may take more risks if they know they will be bailed out, the subject of ongoing political controversy. When it comes to health insurance, the existence of moral hazard is a more matter-of-fact issue: when people get health insurance, they use more medical care, as shown by research including a recent randomized study which MIT economist Amy Finkelstein helped lead

Posted on Wed, 6 Mar 13:

John Graham: Two sides of Chavez, one difficult legacy, Globe and Mail, 5 Mar 13:
It won't happen, of course, but Hugo Chavez's tombstone should have enough space on both sides for totally opposing perceptions of his legacy. As usual, the truth encompasses both sides and even self-styled 'objective' critics, like myself, will argue about where the balance lies, writes fmr Canadian ambassador to Venezuela (IMF praises Venezuelan devaluation, but. . ., South Atlantic News Agency | Weisbrot: Venezuela's devaluation doom-mongers, Guardian)

Financial globalization -- retreat or reset?, McKinsey, Mar '13:
For three decades, the globalization of finance appeared to be an unstoppable trend: as the world economy became more tightly integrated, new technology and access to new markets propelled cross-border capital flows to unprecedented heights. But the financial crisis brought that era of rapid growth to a halt. Growth in financial assets has stalled, while cross-border capital flows remain more than 60% below their '07 peak (w/ exec sum)

New analysis highlights changing face of global trade, OECD / WTO, 16 Jan 13:
Firms are increasingly producing goods and services through supply chains spanning different nations. Such int'l fragmentation of production is blurring the concept of nation of origin. It also calls into question the interpretation of traditional statistics that measure gross flows of goods and services every time they cross borders. The joint Trade in Value-Added initiative breaks with conventional measurements of trade and seeks instead to analyze the value added by a nation in the production of any good or service that is then exported

Posted on Mon, 4 Mar 13:

The $787 billion question--Pres Obama's Council Econ Advisers fmr chair Christina Romer in profile, Finance & Dev't, Mar '13:
In Feb '09, Congress passed a $787 bln fiscal stimulus bill. Though this was the largest fiscal stimulus in US history, it was only about half as large as Romer's $1.8 trillion figure. She admits now that, because the magnitude of the crisis was revealing itself only gradually, a lesser stimulus was probably the only politically viable option. However, in hindsight, it is clear that "even bigger [than $787 bln] would certainly have been better. Part of the pain that we've been living through is because we didn't have enough at that time"

Andy Sumner: Ending global poverty--Can Obama bend it like Bono?, Ctr Global Dev't, 27 Feb 13:
What do Obama and Bono have in common? Both have proposed that the world should seek to end extreme poverty over the next 20 years or so. Obama said so in his annual state of the union address, and this week Bono said the same in a nuanced talk in Los Angeles. Are they mad or deluded? The idea of an end to extreme poverty is part of a broader discussion on the next generation of UN global poverty goals post-2015, writes UK Inst Dev't Studies research fellow / Ctr visiting fellow

Nook & cranny: Infographic--Who gets paid when iPads are made?, TechNews Daily, 19 Jan 12:
Nobody disputes that Apple's designers and engineers in Cupertino make more than Chinese workers assembling iPads and iPhones in Foxconn factories. But a recent study has shown just how big the gap is between US profits and the labor costs in the value chain for the popular tablets and smartphones (Value chain of Apple iPad, Nat'l Science Found. | China makes almost nothing out of iPads and iPhones, Forbes)

Posted on Fri, 1 Mar 13:

Mann and Ornstein: Five myths about the 'sequester', Washington Post, 28 Feb 13 [courtesy Brookings Inst]:
The US political system was not designed to be efficient, but it wasn't supposed to be self-destructive, either. After a near-default on the public debt and a fiscal cliff that threatened a new recession, we are facing another man-made crisis: the sequester, across-the-board cuts in discretionary domestic and defense spending that are set to begin 1 Mar and extend over a decade. Let's separate fact from fiction about the sequester and its impact, write Inst senior fellow and Amer Enterp Inst resident scholar

Coffers: Federation releases 2012 global market highlights, World Federation of Exchanges, 22 Jan 13 [PDF]:
The top five stock markets in the world in 2012 with the largest increase in market capitalization, which reflects the comprehensive value of the market at that time, were Turkey, Thailand, Philippines, Greece and Columbia (p.8). And the top five stock markets with the largest increase in terms of broad market indexes were Turkey, Egypt, Thailand, Greece and Philippines (p.17)

Gopinath, Farhi and Itskhoki: A devaluation option for southern Europe, Proj Syndicate, 1 May 12:
There is a remarkably simple alternative that does not require southern Europe's troubled economies to abandon the euro and devalue their exchange rates. It involves increasing the value-added tax while cutting payroll taxes. Our recent research demonstrates that such a 'fiscal devaluation' has very similar effects on the economy in terms of its impact on GDP, consumption, employment, and inflation, write Harvard and Princeton profs

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