News and Analysis: 1-15 May 2013 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

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Posted on Wed, 15 May 13:

Bangladesh - Global clothing chains grapple with how to improve safety, AP, 15 May 13 [via Philly]:
While several more global clothing chains on Tue were announcing that they agreed to a historic pact to improve factory conditions in Bangladesh, US retailers were scrambling to come up with their own safety plans. A total of more than a dozen brands this week announced plans to sign a 5-year, legally binding contract that requires that they help pay for fire safety and building improvements. Notably missing from the pact are US firms, except for PVH, the parent company of Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger

Miles Corak: The Great Gatsby - as Hollywood never imagined it, Economics for public policy (blog), 9 May 13:
After much anticipation, Hollywood finally releases its version of F Scott Fitzgerald's classic novel. Was Gatsby a crook? Or was he a victim of a crooked game, the American Dream as a broken promise? In a radio program last Aug (The Great Gatsby in the 21st century), a literature prof interprets Fitzgerald as saying the American Dream is a lie. But listen also for my reading of a few passages to appreciate, tongue-in-cheek, why the underlying economics suggest that it is indeed a novel for our times, writes Univ Ottawa prof (How to slide down the 'Great Gatsby Curve')

Global Trends -- 2nd Qtr, Eurasia Group/PwC, May '13 [PDF]:
The extraordinary breadth and depth of the current worldwide econ turmoil and its gradual stabilization create new uncertainties in int'l and local political environments. Now, more than ever, it is crucial to understand emerging global trends: 1) New voices, new demands in Latin America; 2) Central bankers, politics, and monetary expansion; 3) Global oil - shifting market dynamics will undermine resource nationalism; 4) Assessing Africa's retail and consumer landscape; and 5) Emerging market healthcare reform - rhetoric or reality?

Posted on Mon, 13 May 13:

Kofi Annan: Stop the plunder of Africa, Int'l Herald Tribune, 10 May 13 [via Nyasa Times/Malawi]:
With Africa's economies riding the crest of the global commodities wave, there is an unprecedented opportunity to convert the region's vast resource wealth into investments that could lift millions out of poverty. Seizing that opportunity will require strengthened governance, but action by African govts alone will not succeed. As we highlight in this year's Africa Progress Report, no region has suffered more from tax evasion, secret deals and illicit financial transfers, writes fmr UN sec-gen / Africa Progress Panel chair

Book Value: Charles Wolf--A truly Great Leap Forward, Wall St Journal, 30 Apr 13 [courtesy Rand]:
Ronald Coase ranks among the world's most influential economists, yet he rarely appears in the media spotlight. That's because he channels his influence through other economists. A Nobel Laureate '91, he has originated some of the most important econ ideas of recent years. In How China Became Capitalist, he and Ning Wang offer a 'historical narrative of the chain of actions' that brought about China's remarkable transformation, writes Rand senior fellow (Coase/Wang in Cato Policy Report) [PDF]

Coffers: Bond bubble breakdown--Q&A with Martin Feldstein, Goldman Sachs, 22 Apr 13 [PDF,1.2MB, scroll to p4]:
Near multi-generational low bond yields, driven at least in part by US Federal Reserve asset purchases, have pushed the question of whether or not the bond market is a bubble to Top of Mind. We ask the fmr chair of Pres Reagan's Council Econ Advisers / Harvard prof for his views: Q--What constitutes a bubble and is there a US gov't bond bubble today?; What has precipitated the bubble and does it encompass other assets?; What would prompt the bursting of the bubble, and when? [courtesy Harvard]

Posted on Fri, 10 May 13:

Faltering economy confronts Pakistan's new leaders, BBC News, 9 May 13:
Pakistan is expected to have its 1st democratic transition from one civilian gov't to another after voters head to the polls on 11 May. The nuclear-armed Islamic nation of 180 mil. people faces many challenges, including Taliban militancy, growing extremism and its complicated ties with its neighbors and the US. All those issues need to be handled delicately and over a period. But one of the priorities for the new admin will be to tackle the faltering economy

Charles Kenny: How did the world's rich get that way? Luck, Businessweek, 22 Apr 13 [courtesy Ctr Glob Dev't]:
Why are some people so rich and others so poor? Is it from good choices or good luck? That depends who you are comparing yourself to. If you are more successful than your friends, colleagues, and family members, surely a lot of it is because you are better at what you do, or have made better choices, or have worked harder to get where you are. But as the scale of comparison widens, the amount that's due to the choices you made drops dramatically, writes Ctr senior fellow

Famine risk is well understood and badly managed - report, Royal Inst Int'l Affairs/UK, 5 Apr 13:
Food crises are the deadliest natural disasters, resulting in up to 2 million deaths since 1970, yet responses to them are reactive, slow and fragmented. A new report, Managing Famine Risk: Linking early warning to early action, argues that while famine early warning systems have a good track record of predicting food crises, they have a poor track record of triggering early action to protect lives and livelihoods

Posted on Wed, 8 May 13:

Brazil announces Azevedo as new head of WTO, Deutsche Welle, 8 May 13:
Ahead of the official announcement, the Brazilian gov't has named Roberto Azevedo as the new head of the World Trade Org. He beat the candidate Washington preferred for the job. The result of the WTO selection process was meant to be secret until a formal announcement on Wed., but Brazil confirmed on Tue that Azevedo won by a wide margin. Azevedo beat 8 other candidates incl Mexico's Herminio Blanco, widely seen as the favored choice of the US (Bio: WTO's new chief) [PDF]

Where's the toughest place to be a mom?, Save the Children, 7 May 13:
The Democratic Rep. of Congo is the world's toughest place to be a mother--and Finland the best--acc. to the annual State of the World's Mothers report. The report's Mother's Index looks at 176 nations around the world that are succeeding--and failing--in saving the lives of mothers and their new-born babies. The Nordic nations sweep the top spots while, for the 1st time, nations in sub-Saharan Africa take up each of the bottom 10 places in the index

Glenn Hubbard vs Alan Blinder, National Journal, 25 Apr 13 [courtesy Hubbard's site]:
Top economists from the Clinton and Bush admins debate how to revive the economy to keep people from getting stuck. The upheavals in the US economy over the past decade (and beyond) have challenged workers, biz owners, and gov't officials. To help navigate these disputes, we interviewed 2 of the nation's most admired econ analysts. Each is mostly identified with one political party but is widely respected in the other. Hubbard was Pres GW Bush's Council Econ Advisers chair, and Blinder served as the Fed's vice-chair

Posted on Mon, 6 May 13:

Joseph Stiglitz: The lessons of the North Atlantic crisis for economic theory and policy, IMF (blog), 3 May 13:
In analyzing the recent financial crisis, we can benefit somewhat from the misfortune of recent decades. If we look over a 150-year period, we have an even richer data set. With that perspective, the burning question is not 'How did this happen?', but 'How did we ignore that long history, and think that we had solved the problems with the business cycle?' Believing that we had made big econ fluctuations a thing of the past took a remarkable amount of hubris, writes Nobel Laureate '01 / fmr World Bank chief economist

Limited future for Malaysia PM Najib after worst electoral showing, Reuters, 6 May 13:
The National Front (BN, in Malay) head Najib Abdul Razak could step down by the end of the year, ruling party sources said Mon, after the coalition extended its 56-year-rule but haemorrhaged Chinese and Malay voters in its worst-ever general election performance. Najib was already under pressure from conservatives in the party for not delivering a stronger majority, despite a robust economy and a US$2.6 bil. deluge of social handouts to poor families

Why doesn't predicting African famines prevent them?, CSMonitor (blog), by T Murphy, 8 Apr 13:
Experts knew it was coming. In Mar '11 the Famine Early Warning Systems Network warned that low rains in the Horn of Africa would make parts of the region food insecure through June of that year. Despite the warnings of a potential crisis, little action was taken. By July, it was too late for some people (Amartya Sen, famine and the Protection of Info Act, Daily Maverick/ SAfrica | Sen--economist, philosopher, human development doyen, Guardian)

Posted on Fri, 3 May 13:

Editorial: Consumer choice -- The Bangladesh tragedy tugs at the conscience, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, 3 May 13:
The collapse of an 8-story building near Dhaka, Bangladesh, which contained 5 clothing factories, killed at least 400 garment workers and has focused US consumers' attention on a painful, difficult problem. The fundamental wrongs that led to the collapse of the building and the nation's worst garment industry disaster were of Bangladeshi making. Yet many of the factories there produce clothing for well-known US and int'l firms, incl Benetton, Disney, Gap and JCPenney (Rivoli: It's not all about the West, Time)

Study suggests 258,000 Somalis died due to severe food insecurity and famine, UN/USAID, 2 May 13 [PDF]:
A new study estimates that famine in Somalia claimed the lives of about 258,000 people from Oct '10 to Apr '12, and half of the deaths were children under 5. This was about 4.6% of the total pop. and 10% of children under 5. A combination of events triggered the famine. The study--jointly funded and commissioned by the UN Food and Agric Org's Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit for Somalia and the USAID-funded Famine Early Warning Systems Network--is the 1st scientific estimate of the death toll from the food emergency

Field Trip: Actor Alan Alda wants scientists to cut out the jargon, AP, 1 May 13:
Among the procedures Army surgeon Hawkeye Pierce performed on 'M.A.S.H.' was an end-to-end anastomosis. Most of the viewers, actor Alan Alda concedes, had no idea he was talking about removing a damaged piece of intestine and reconnecting the healthy pieces. Today, the award-winning film/TV star--and fmr host of the long-running PBS series 'Scientific American Frontiers'--is on a mission to teach physicians, physicists and scientists of all types to ditch the jargon and get their points across in clear, simple language

Posted on Wed, 1 May 13:

Robert Kuttner: Reality 1, Austerity 0, HuffPost, 28 Apr 13:
It's been a very bad week for the merchants of austerity. In Europe, the just-released stats show EU nations sliding deeper into recession. Here in the US, the 1st qtr numbers were lousy. And Rogoff and Reinhardt had a really terrible week. Their now infamous 2010 claim that nations get into econ trouble when their debt ratios exceed 90% of GDP was blown to hell by a Univ of Mass grad student. For 3 years, critics have been pressing R&R to share their raw data, writes co-founder/co-editor of American Prospect

C Reinhart and K Rogoff: Debt, growth, and reality, Harvard Univ, 30 Apr 13 [PDF]:
Our papers on public debt and growth, which came after our '09 book, explore the long-term growth consequences of very high public debt. This work does not advocate austerity in the face of a deep financial crisis. Our debt/GDP database has been available online for over 2 years. We regard highly visible claims that we have not shared our data as slanderous, write Harvard profs (NYT: Debt, growth and the austerity debate | Responding to our critics) [PDF, courtesy Harvard]

Coffee/Tea Room: Info.cern.ch -- the world's first Web site, CERN/Switz, 30 Apr 13:
On 30 Apr 1993, CERN (European Org for Nuclear Research, in Fr.) made the source code of World Wide Web available on a royalty-free basis; the software was free for anyone to use, and remains so today. The 1st Web site at CERN--and in the world--was dedicated to the WWW project itself (browse it here). Web usage exploded as people started setting up their own servers and Web sites. To mark the anniversary, CERN is starting a project to preserve the digital assets that are associated with the birth of the Web

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