News and Analysis: 17-31 May 2013 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

Based in: Manila, Philippines

Posted on Fri, 31 May 13:

UN panel projects a poverty-free world by 2030, Inter Press Service, 31 May 13:
A UN-commissioned high-level panel of eminent persons, led by 3 world leaders from Indonesia, Liberia and UK, has moved the goal posts for the eradication of extreme poverty and hunger: from the current '15 deadline to a new targeted date of '30. In a long-awaited report released Thu, the panel called for a new global partnership between the world's richest and poorest nations to battle global poverty. (High-level panel releases recommendations for world's next dev't agenda) [PDF]

Martin Ravallion: Two goals for fighting poverty, Overseas Dev't Inst (blog), 10 May 13:
It is widely agreed that eliminating extreme poverty in the world should take priority in thinking about our dev't goals going forward. The '$1 a day' poverty line is a simple metric for monitoring progress toward that goal. It was chosen in '90 as a typical line for low-income nations. But many people are asking whether this frugal line adequately embraces current standards for defining poverty. A new way of thinking about our poverty goals will influence how we prioritize policies, writes fmr World Bank research dir / Georgetown U prof

Coffers: How to invest in a turbulent market -- Nobel Laureate William Sharpe, Stanford Univ, 18 Apr 13:
It's simple, says the Nobel Laureate '90 and emeritus prof: to get greater returns for retirement, be mindful of investment costs--and don't look to the market for sympathy. He recently published an article titled "The arithmetic of investment expenses" in the Financial Analysts Journal that shows investors how much more money they could have in retirement by avoiding actively managed funds in favor of index-oriented funds. He spoke recently about lessons learned (or not learned) from the financial meltdown of '07 (Introd to the Sharpe ratio)

Posted on Wed, 29 May 13:

OECD sees 'robust' growth in emerging countries, AFP, 29 May 13 [via New Age/SAfrica]:
Growth in China and other major emerging countries should be robust and outperform developed nations, OECD said Wed, although it trimmed its forecasts for this year and next. In its latest Economic Outlook, it said that while many of its 34 members will continue to be constrained by fiscal consolidation and weak credit markets, "a moderate cyclical upturn is getting underway in China, while a more hesitant pick-up in growth is seen to take place in India" (Growing risk of inequality, poverty as crisis hits poor hardest, OECD)

Massimo Cirasino: Putting $8.7 billion back in the pockets of Asia's migrants, World Bank (blog), 20 May 13:

Around 215 mil. people--3% of the world's pop.--have emigrated far from home in order to earn enough to support their families. They include workers from Bangladesh who go to Saudi Arabia to work in the construction trade, Afghans who go to Iran to work in the oilfields, and workers from Burkina Faso who go to Cote d’Ivoire to work on the cocoa or coffee harvests. Toiling far from their loved ones is not their only burden, writes manager of WB's fincl infrastr. svce (High fees, limited financial services reduce impact of $260 bil. in Asia remittances, IFAD)

Ha-Joon Chang: Watch out, George Osborne - Smith, Marx and even the IMF are after you, Guardian, 8 May 13:
Osborne and his Treasury officials are gearing up for a fight. The unlikely opponents are a visiting IMF team. Why has this routine meeting, which would hardly be noticed, become a confrontation? Because the IMF has recently dropped its support for the chancellor's austerity policy. It even said he was 'playing with fire' in refusing to change course. This is an astonishing development. For in the past 3 decades the IMF has been the standard-bearer for austerity, writes author of 23 Things They Don’t Tell You About Capitalism (2010) / Cambridge U prof

Posted on Mon, 27 May 13:

Managing capital flows -- what worked, and why, IMF Survey Mag, 17 May 13:
At a recent seminar, IMF acknowledged that rapid inflow surges or disruptive outflows could create policy challenges. Macro and financial sector policies need to play a key role, and capital flow management measures (CFMs) could also be useful. But one prof noted that "the IMF's taxonomy is neat, but reality is messy," adding that while IMF calls for CFMs to be used when the currency is overvalued, the economy is overheating, and the level of reserves is adequate, in practice, judging whether these conditions are met is not always easy

The high value of water, MIT News, 14 Jan 13:
If you're reading this, odds are you've already used running water in your home today. But you're in a minority: globally, at least a billion people have no nearby source of water, while of the remaining 6 billion or so, only 42% have running water in their homes or a tap in the yard, acc. to the World Health Org. Now a new field experiment, co-authored by MIT economist Esther Duflo, shows just how much access to clean water matters to people (Int'l Day for Biodiversity - 22 May)

C Reinhart and K Rogoff: Dear Paul -- An open letter to Krugman, Harvard Univ, 25 May 13:
We admire your past scholarly work, which influences us to this day. So it has been with deep disappointment that we have experienced your spectacularly uncivil behavior the past few weeks. Your desire to blame our 2010 paper for the stance of some politicians fails to recognize a basic reality: we were out there endorsing very different policies, write co-authors of This Time is Different: Eight centuries of financial folly (2009) (Krugman's reply, NY Times [blog])

Posted on Fri, 24 May 13:

Market turbulence poses 1st serious test for 'Abenomics', Reuters, 24 May 13:
This week's turbulence in Tokyo markets exposes a key risk of PM Abe's all-in strategy to revive Japan's economy--if investor confidence falters, the gov't and the Bank of Japan may be left with few options to turn the tide. The 10-year bond yield briefly rose on Thu to 1.0%--a level flagged by many analysts as a worry line for the BOJ as it could begin to push up borrowing costs and threaten a nascent recovery. It has almost tripled from the 0.315% record low it plumbed in Apr (Pesek: The bond vigilantes complicate 'Abenomics', Bloomberg)

Top conservative economists send letter to support immigration reform, Amer.Action Forum, 23 May 13:
Conservative economists released an open letter to Congressional leadership [PDF] Thu supporting immigration reform and touting its econ and budgetary benefits for America. The letter, signed by 111 economists, led by Forum pres Holtz-Eakin, includes a number of influential conservatives: Nobel Laureate Prescott, Laffer, Hubbard, Lazear, Lindsey, Rosen, Schultz, Taylor and others. The letter was sent to Speaker Boehner, Senate Majority Leader Reid, House Minority Leader Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader McConnell

Perspectives on global dev't -- Industrial policies in a changing world, OECD, 15 May 13:
While global growth is shifting towards the East and the South, many developing nations are still facing barriers to diversify their economies and improve their participation in global markets and value chains. First launched in '10, 'Perspectives on Global Devt' is a new annual report which aims at flagging emerging issues in the dev't debate. This edition was done together with the Assn of European Dev't Finance Institutions and in collaboration with UN-ECLAC, Brazilian Dev't Bank, and SAfrican and Moroccan industry/trade ministries

Posted on Wed, 22 May 13:

Senate panel OKs immigration overhaul, USA Today, 22 May 12 [courtesy Greenville News]:
After 3 long weeks of hearings, spectators burst out into applause Tue night after the Senate Judiciary Cmte approved an immigration bill that would be the biggest overhaul to the nation's immigration laws in a generation. The bill survived 212 amendments over 5 lengthy hearings. Left intact was the core of the bill, which will allow 11 mil. unauthorized immigrants to apply for citizenship, add significant investments in border security and fundamentally alter the legal immigration system of the future

Barry Eichengreen: Open-access economics, Proj Syndicate, 17 May 13:
The brouhaha over the Reinhart/Rogoff article may be the most incendiary scholarly controversy since '74, when 2 earlier economists, Fogel/Engerman, published a notorious book, Time on the Cross, defending the efficiency of US plantation slavery. As with the book, the recent controversy, while ostensibly stemming from statistical procedures, is actually rooted in the purposes to which others put their study. But in impugning the authors' motives, critics of Reinhart/Rogoff have taken their eye off the ball, writes UC-Berkeley econ historian

Jaana Remes: How to build a sustainable competitiveness platform?, World Bank (blog), 29 Nov 12:
In the wake of the 1st global recession since World War II, govts around the world are looking for ways to boost growth and competitiveness. Given the fragility of the business and econ climate--and strained public coffers--the responsibility to get policy right is acute. But can policy makers improve on their hit-and-miss record of intervention in the past? I would pick out 3 useful lessons that we have learned, often the hard way, writes McKinsey senior fellow

Posted on Mon, 20 May 13:

Why growth matters--Q&A with Bhagwati and Panagariya, Columbia Univ, 5 Apr 13:
In a new book, the frequent collaborators--preeminent experts on India's economy--argue that econ growth is the only reliable dev't strategy for addressing widespread poverty in India, Southeast Asia, Africa, and elsewhere. The book, Bhagwati says, "rejects the obsession with the top 1% that preoccupied the Occupy Wall St movement and returns our ethical objective to concern for the poor, those at the bottom who are below the poverty line" (Dreze/Sen: Putting growth in its place, Outlook India)

Developing nations to dominate global saving/investment, but the poor may not share in benefits, World Bank, 18 May 13:
In less than a generation, global saving/investment will be dominated by the developing world, says the Global Development Horizons report. By 2030, half the global stock of capital will reside in the developing world, compared to less than one-third today, says the report, which explores patterns of investment, saving and capital flows as they are likely to evolve over the next 2 decades. It finds that the least educated groups have low or no saving, suggesting an inability to improve their earning capacity

Cass Sunstein: An original thinker of our time, NY Review of Books, May '13:
Albert Hirschman, who died late last year, preferred doubt to theorizing. He rejected every ism, preferring small ideas and personal observations. As Jeremy Adelman shows in his astonishing biography, in one of his last books, "A Propensity to Self-Subversion", Hirschman celebrates skepticism about his own theories and ideas, and he captures not only the insight but also the pleasure, even the joy, that can come from learning that one had it wrong, writes Pres Obama's Ofc of Info & Regulatory Affairs fmr head / Harvard prof

Posted on Fri, 17 May 13:

Peterson Inst fmr head warns that currency wars pose 'clear and present danger', 16 May 13:
Currency wars pose 'a clear and present danger' to the world economy on a scale not seen since the breakup of the trading system that led to the Great Depression in the '30s, Inst director emeritus Fred Bergsten warned at a forum on Thu. He said that manipulation to weaken currencies transfers $700–900 bil. of production yearly from deficit to surplus nations. This costs 1–5 mil. US jobs--the same order of magnitude as have been created by the '09 fiscal stimulus or the Fed's quantitative easing, or QE, policies

Interactive - The 50 largest ports in the world, Smithsonian Mag, May '13:
Container-laden ships traverse countless supply chains from continent to continent, a method of transport that accounts for more than 90% of the world trade by volume. The world's top 50 largest ports see millions of 'Twenty-foot Equivalent Units' each year, the name given multi-colored, cargo-carrying containers. Most containers are 20 ft. long and 8 ft. wide, hence the term TEU. This interactive map features clickable markers for the world's largest ports. Investigate for yourself the mechanisms of global trade

Is it crazy to think we can eradicate poverty?, NY Times, 2 May 13 [courtesy Ctr Glob Dev't]:
At a news conference during the spring meetings of the IMF and the World Bank in late April, Jim Yong Kim held up a piece of paper with the year '2030' scribbled on it in pen. "This is it," said Kim, the genial American physician who took over as WB pres last summer. "This is the global target to end poverty." It sounds like the sort of airy, ambitious goal that is greeted by standing ovations but is ultimately unlikely to ever materialize. Dev't experts don't see it that way, though

EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

emerging and frontier markets:

the unofficial field guide