News and Analysis: 3-14 June 2013 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

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Posted on Fri, 14 June 13:

Kemal Dervis: Turkey - Taksim and the Left, Project Syndicate, 10 June 13 [courtesy Brookings]:
The small park in Taksim Sq. in the sprawling metropolis of Istanbul is one of the few green spaces left in the city center. On 28 May, a handful of environmentalists started a peaceful protest vs a redevelopment plan for the park that would replace the greenery. The events that started there are specific to Turkey, but they mirror aspirations that are universal. The same can be said for the challenge facing the democratic left, writes Turkey's fmr econ affairs minister / fmr UNDP head

Andrew Natsios: Burying the World Bank's info, US News & World Report, 20 May 13:
Ten years ago, the WB created the Doing Business report, which has become a powerful tool for local reformers in developing nations trying to kickstart their economies and reduce poverty. Recently, however, China has become vocal in its criticism of the report. Its relative rank compared to other nations has not greatly improved. And some UN agencies, perhaps jealous of the report's success, have joined the attack, writes fmr USAID head / Texas A&M prof (WB pres.'s statement on the independent panel review of Doing Business)

Crash course: What are structural policies?, Finance & Dev't, by Khaled Abdel-Kader, Mar/May '13:
Monetary and fiscal policies deal with short-term econ fluctuations. But sometimes an economy's problems are deeper and longer lasting than excessive or inadequate demand, usually as a result of gov't policies or private practices that impede efficient and fair production of goods and services--that is, supply. Fixing such problems can require changes to the fabric of the economy, writes IMF economist

Posted on Wed, 12 June 13:

Greece 1st developed market cut to emerging; UAE raised, Businessweek, 12 June 13:
Greece became the 1st developed nation to be cut to emerging-market status by index provider MSCI, after failing to meet a number of criteria. It had upgraded Greece to developed-market status in '01. Qatar and United Arab Emirates were now raised to emerging markets, while Morocco was cut to a frontier market. Its reclassification of Greece follows Russell Investments, which advises funds with $2.4 tril. in assets. Russell said in Mar it will downgrade Greece to an emerging market

Five misconceptions about infrastructure, World Bank (blog), by Robert Palter, 7 May 13:
Ensuring that the world economy and its citizens have sufficient infrastructure--from transport systems to electricity grids and water pipelines--is an increasingly pressing issue. It's also a subject matter surrounded by misconceptions. If the world stops focusing exclusively on what it needs to invest and starts paying attention to how it invests, delivers, and operates infrastructure, pessimism over today's challenge will give way to a renewed belief in what's possible and kick-start concrete action, writes Mckinsey infrastr. practice dir

Coffers: Compounding Kiwis and interest rates, Allianz's Project M, Mar '12:
London, NY and Hong Kong may huddle closely at the top of financial center rankings, but the common man's financial expertise is best at the greatest possible distance from these hubs. Thousands of miles away, New Zealanders understand compound interest and inflation better than many others. But levels of financial literacy are still dangerously low, acc. to a recent study conducted by U Pennsylvania's Olivia Mitchell and George Washington U's Annamaria Lusardi

Posted on Mon, 10 June 13:

IMF chief economist on Greek bailout: 'We lost time', AFP, 8 June 13 [via EnetEnglish/Greece]:
IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard on Sat said that the fund and the EU lost time by delaying a restructuring of the Greek debt. He admitted during an interview with French state radio station France Inter that the IMF and the Europeans 'lost time' when it came to Greece's rescue by refusing to reduce its debt back in 2010 (IMF's economist says Greece put in vise, Greek Reporter)

Oslo knocks Tokyo off top spot in list of world's most expensive cities for expatriates, ECA Int'l, 6 June 13:
For the 1st time in 3 years, Tokyo is no longer the most expensive location for int'l assignees. The Japanese capital has been overtaken by Norway's capital, Oslo, acc. to the latest cost of living research done twice yearly. Also in the top 5 are the Angolan capital of Luanda, where the goods and services commonly purchased by expats are difficult to access and command a premium, Stavanger (Norway), Juba (South Sudan) and Moscow

Taking credit, MIT News, 10 May 12:
Microfinance seems like a boost for entrepreneurs in developing nations: Give them little loans, and people can make their small businesses a bit larger. Starting in '01, the gov't of Thailand used this idea as the basis of a program which distributed loans in 77,000 rural villages. The program was simple, providing a million baht (the Thai currency), or about $24,000, to create banks in each of those villages. Did anyone benefit? An MIT economist investigates

Posted on Fri, 7 June 13:

European Commission's Rehn accuses IMF of 'washing its hands' on Greece, RTE/Ireland, 7 June 13:
A row between the European Commission and the IMF over the 1st Greek bailout has intensified significantly. Commission VP Rehn has accused the IMF of trying to 'wash its hands' on Greece and 'throw the dirty water on Europe'. His comments follow the release of an IMF report [PDF] that found mistakes had been made in constructing the deal and said Greek debt should have been reconstructed in '10 (IMF and European Commission clash over Greek bailout)

G Hubbard and T Kane: US power - Down but still unrivaled, Reuters, 21 May 13 [courtesy author's site]:
Adapted from their new book Balance: The Economics of Great Powers from Ancient Rome to Modern America: The 'emerging foreign power' is a rotating special guest in the narrative of the American century. That role was taken by the Soviet Union during the Cold War, was filled by Japan for a decade and now stars China. Yet Beijing does not threaten to counterbalance US power as gravely as America's economy threatens to become unbalanced on its own, write fmr chair of Pres G W Bush's Council Econ Advisers; and Hudson Inst chief economist

Sao Paulo, Incheon, Mumbai expected to see greatest surge in competitiveness, Citi for Cities, 4 June 13:
A new report, 'Hot Spots 2025: Benchmarking the future competitiveness of cities', projects that Sao Paulo, Incheon and Mumbai will see the greatest surge in global competitiveness between '12 and '25. It forecasts the competitiveness of 120 cities in '25 based on their projected ability to attract capital, business, talent and tourists. The 10 most competitive cities in the world in '25 are forecast to be: New York, London, Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Sydney, Paris, Stockholm, Chicago, and Toronto

Posted on Wed, 5 June 13:

H Chhor and R Dobbs: Myanmar's moment?, Foreign Policy, 30 May 13 [courtesy McKinsey]:
Myanmar is attracting a lot of attention these days. On 5-7 June, it plays host to the World Econ Forum, the 1st leading int'l gathering of senior decision-makers from industry, gov't, academia, and civil society to be held there. But it's easy to make the case that the current hype has run ahead of the reality. Incomes are still low. Only 2.5 mil., or 4%, of its citizens have enough income to spend on discretionary items--globally the average is 35%, write directors of McK S'pore and McK Global Inst

Solving history's puzzles -- A profile of Carmen Reinhart, Finance & Dev't, June/Aug '13:
Reinhart's path is not well worn by economists. In a profession dominated by theorists and model builders, she made her mark by finding, mining, and organizing data. It was that ability to unearth and organize data that led her and co-author Rogoff to their '09 best-seller This Time Is Different. But she has been in the middle of a firestorm recently over how she and Rogoff handled data in a paper that found that when the ratio of gov't debt to GDP exceeds 90%, it begins to become a drag on long-term growth

New approach to globalization, global value chains needed to boost growth, jobs, says OECD, 28 May 13:
Tech advances, less costly shipping and trade liberalization have transformed the way in which firms make products and distribute them worldwide. Govts that become more open to trade and investment, and encourage innovation will help firms better integrate the global value chains that are driving growth in increasingly interconnected economies, acc. to new research. The OECD, WTO and UNCTAD were asked to report on this to the G20 Summit in St. Petersburg this Sep (New analysis highlights importance of services to global trade)

Posted on Mon, 3 June 13:

Simmering anger at Erdogan's authoritarianism boils over in Turkey, Reuters, 2 June 13:
Turkey's most violent riots in decades may have been started by the destruction of a small Istanbul park, but they have exploded in a show of defiance at what many see as the creeping authoritarianism of PM Erdogan. In power for more than a decade, Erdogan's Islamist-rooted AK Party has increased its share of the vote in each of the past 3 elections, ushered in unprecedented political stability and overseen some of the fastest econ growth in Europe

Jeffrey Sachs: Why Turkey is thriving, Project Syndicate, 27 May 13:
A recent visit to Turkey reminded me of its enormous econ successes during the last decade. The economy has grown rapidly, inequality is declining, and innovation is on the rise. Even a short stay in Ankara allows one to see its underlying strengths. The airport, highways, and other infrastructure are 1st class, and a high-speed intercity rail network links Ankara with other parts of the nation. There is nothing flashy about its rise, which has been based on fundamentals, rather than bubbles or resource discoveries, writes Columbia U Earth Inst dir / UN Sustainable Dev't Solutions Network dir

Tanvi Madan: China's marathon is India's triathlon, Brookings (blog), 4 Feb 13:
A recent NY Times article some weeks ago that India had lost the race to China came on the heels of a year or more of global hand-wringing about India and its prospects. Most of the responses to the piece tended to focus on whether India was losing or had lost the race. A different question, however, needs to be asked: Is that the only race India is in and the only race that those cheering for India want that nation to win?, asks Inst's India Project dir (Yasheng Huang: China's challenge, MIT Tech Rev)

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