News and Analysis: 16-30 Sep 2013 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

Based in: Manila, Philippines

Posted on Mon, 30 Sep 13:

Markets hit by political crises in US and Italy, BBC News, 30 Sep 13 [via Daily News/Zimbabwe]:
Financial markets have been hit by the prospect of a US govt shutdown and a crisis for Italy's govt. The US needs to agree a new spending bill before the financial year ends at midnight on Mon. But political divisions have resulted in a stalemate. In Italy, PM Enrico Letta is to hold a confidence vote on Wed, in order to seek the backing of Italy's parliament after 5 ministers from Berlusconi's party stepped down at the weekend

Andy Sumner: The future of aid -- Poverty and the middle income countries, UNU-World Inst Devt Econ Res, 24 Sep 13:
A series of studies since late 2010 has discussed a shift in the location or 'geography' of global poverty. The shift is quite simple: the distribution of global poverty has shifted from nations officially classified by the World Bank as 'low-income' towards those classified as 'middle-income'. Of course the world's poor have not 'moved', writes co-dir of King's College Lond. Intl Devt Inst

Coffers: Greg Mankiw--Budging (just a little) on investing in gold, NY Times, 28 July 13 [PDF, courtesy Harvard]:
"Should gold be a part of my portfolio?" A friend posed that question to me a few weeks ago, after watching gold's wild ride over the last few years. The price of gold was less than $500 an oz. in 2005, but soared to more than $1,800 in '11, before falling back to about $1,300 recently. He wasn't sure what to make of it all. My instinct was to say no, writes fmr Pres G W Bush's Council Econ Advisers' chair / Harvard prof

Posted on Fri, 27 Sep 13:

Climate panel: warming 'extremely likely' man-made, AP, 27 Sep 13:
Scientists can now say with extreme confidence that human activity is the dominant cause of the global warming observed since the 1950s, said a new report on Fri by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The full 2,000-page report isn't going to be released until Mon, but a summary for policy makers was published (UN panel's media release [PDF] | Global warming slowdown complicates job of UN panel) [via CBC News]

Big reform plans for China's newest trade zone set high expectations, Reuters, 27 Sep 13 [via 4-traders]:
China has announced detailed plans for a new free-trade zone in Shanghai, touted as the nation's biggest potential econ reform since Deng Xiaoping used a similar zone in Shenzhen to pry open a closed economy to trade in 1978. The creation of the zone--China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone, slated to open on Sun--is hoped to reinvigorate Shanghai's economy and help it compete with Hong Kong as a financial center

A battle for the soul of India, National Interest, by David Rieff, 4 Sep 13:
At 1st glance, there did not seem to be anything unique about the recent public quarrel between Nobel Laureate Amartya Sen and Columbia's Jagdish Bhagwati. Every once in a while, though, a bitter controversy erupts between scholars where the stakes in terms of public policies affecting the lives of huge numbers of people and the wealth or poverty of nations could scarcely be higher. Unsurprisingly, they usually involve economists (though Krugman vs Rogoff-Reinhart is not one of them)

Posted on Wed, 25 Sep 13:

F Calderon and N Stern: The new climate economics, Project Syndicate, 22 Sep 13:
This Fri, the UN climate panel of experts will release its latest assessment of the evidence on global warming. This will then put a new debate center stage: how to reconcile increased action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions with strong econ growth. To clarify the issues, we have helped to launch the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, write fmr Mexican pres / GCEC chair; and British Academy pres / GCEC co-chair

Is the end of the age of innovation upon us?, Fed Res Bank of Atlanta, 24 July 13:
An interview with Joel Mokyr, Northwestern and Tel Aviv U prof. The past 200 years have seen huge advances in technology, from electricity to antibiotics. But in recent decades there have been mounting concerns that innovation is slowing. Are we out of ideas? Are the techno-pessimists right? Has the age of innovation come to an end? (Q&A with Mokyr)

Emanuel Derman: Espequanto for beginners, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 4 June 13:
Want to sound like a Wall Street master or mistress of the universe at your weekly golf game or book club? Whatever your gender, you can only benefit by sprinkling your daily conversation with terms from finance, even when talking about love or sports or food. This is an introduction to the art of talking quant, writes fmr Goldman Sachs quantitative risk strategies head / author of My Life as a Quant: Reflections on physics and finance

Posted on Mon, 23 Sep 13:

A wild week ahead as US Senate confronts shutdown deadline, Reuters, 23 Sep 13:
The US Congress begins a potentially chaotic week that may or may not end with a govt shutdown on 1 Oct. With action to fund the govt required in both the Senate and then once again in the House of Representatives, a down-to-the wire battle through next weekend is almost guaranteed. And after that, they will confront an even more volatile clash over increasing the govt's borrowing authority, with its credit rating and possible default on the line

Michael Spence: The blurry frontiers of economic policy, Project Syndicate, 19 Sep 13:
Economic policies are set at the national level, and, with a few notable exceptions like trade negotiations and the tracking of terrorist funding and money laundering, policy makers set goals with a view to benefiting the domestic economy. These policies (or policy shifts) are increasingly affecting other economies and the global system, giving rise to consequences that extend outside the policy makers' target environment, writes Nobel Laureate '01 / NYU prof

Public-private partnerships can boost infrastructure but require precise preparation, Boston Consult.Grp, 10 May 13:
Public-private partnerships (PPPs) have been operating for a long time, but in many emerging markets they have risen to prominence only in the past decade. However, many PPPs either failed or never got off the ground as a result of ill-suited preparations. As emerging markets seek more PPPs, a step change in the quality of project preparation is needed, says a new report from the World Econ Forum in collaboration with BCG

Posted on Fri, 20 Sep 13:

India's new central bank chief orders surprise rate hike, AFP, 20 Sep 13 [via Times of Oman]:
India's new central bank governor surprised markets Fri with a bold decision to hike interest rates on fears of rising inflation, triggering sharp falls on the stock market. Reserve Bank of India chief Raghuram Rajan, who had earlier warned he was prepared to be unpopular, increased the benchmark interest lending rate to 7.5% from 7.25% at his 1st policy review meeting since taking the reins. The Bombay Stock Exchange's index fell by as much as 3%

Renewed, stronger partnerships needed to close gaps on anti-poverty goals, UN News, 19 Sep 13:
The world community must live up to the commitments it made in support of achieving universally accepted anti-poverty targets, UN Sec-Gen Ban Ki-moon said launching a new report, the 2013 MDG Gap Task Force Report, which finds that despite significant successes, the global econ slowdown continues to hinder progress on the Millennium Dev't Goals (New goals in sight to reduce poverty, hunger, Lancet | Editorial: Together we stand, Nature) [PDF, courtesy UN]

The blip - Was America's economic prosperity just a historical accident?. NY Magazine, by B Wells, 21 July 13:
What if everything we've come to think of as American is predicated on a freak coincidence of econ history? And what if that coincidence has run its course? This line of thinking would make you an acolyte of a 72-year-old economist at Northwestern named Robert Gordon, and you would probably share his view that it would be crazy to expect something on the scale of the 2nd industrial revolution to ever take place again

Posted on Wed, 18 Sep 13:

Coffers: Expect a gradual Fed tapering, BlackRock, by R Koesterich, 16 Sep 13:
All eyes are on the Federal Reserve's policy meeting set for Tue and Wed. of this week as investors are expecting the long-awaited announcement of a reduction (or 'tapering') of the Fed's asset-purchase program. At this point, expectations appear to be that tapering will be slower and less dramatic than had been telegraphed a few months ago. What, then, are the investment implications of a 'taper lite'?, asks chief invest. strategist for the world's largest asset manager (Developing your portfolio with developing markets)

Andres Velasco: Emerging markets' nirvana lost, Project Syndicate, 11 Sep 13:
In the '70s, the great Yale economist Carlos Díaz-Alejandro used to say that the combination of high commodity prices, low world interest rates, and abundant int'l liquidity would amount to econ nirvana for developing nations. Back then, no sensible economist believed that such a state of grace could ever arrive. Yet arrive it did, and over the last decade commodity-rich nations like Brazil, Indonesia, Russia, and SAfrica enjoyed its abundant benefits with abandon, writes fmr pres'l candidate and finance min of Chile / Columbia U prof

China pulls away from BRICs as destination for business growth, Grant Thornton, 16 Sep 13:
China's economy has significantly improved its attractiveness as a place to do business over the last 12 months, acc. to the Global Dynamism Index 2013. Developed in conjunction with the Economist Intelligence Unit, the GDI ranks 60 of the world's largest economies on 22 indicators. The findings show that China ranks 3rd, behind Australia and Chile. By contrast, the other BRICs have all fallen down the rankings this year. The other economies in the top 5 are New Zealand and Canada

Posted on Mon, 16 Sep 13:

Larry Summers: It is no time for faster cuts to the US budget deficit, FT, 3 June 13 [courtesy Harvard]:
A prudent govt must balance spending and revenue collection in a way that assures the sustainability of its debts. To do otherwise would lead to instability and slow growth--and court default and catastrophe. Deficit financing of govt activity is not a sustainable alternative to increasing revenues or to cutting public spending. But responsible governing also requires recognizing that when economies are weak and monetary policy is constrained, fiscal policy can have a large impact on econ activity, writes fmr US Treasury secy / Harvard prof

Boardroom/C-suite: How relevant is long-range strategic planning?, Harvard, by J Heskett, 4 Sep 13:
From time to time thinking converges around a set of ideas. Conventional thinking that has encouraged us to seek sustainable competitive advantage in the past is being questioned in today's biz environment. Some are even suggesting that the mindset that has given us strategic planning concepts such as SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats) analysis, the '5 forces', and an emphasis on core competencies of the firm may lead to competitive disadvantage in a tech-transformed world, writes Harvard emeritus prof

Measuring development goals - Towards a data revolution, OECD Observer, by J Jutting, June-Aug '13:
Does singer Bono from the group U2 sense a data revolution brewing? He recently became a self-declared 'factivist' -- an evidence-based activist, with poverty 1st and foremost in his sights. Bono claims that if the current downward trajectory continues, "we can get closer to the 'zero zone' where extreme poverty is virtually eliminated by 2028". Could he be right?, asks manager of Partnership in Stats for Dev't in 21st Century (PARIS21)

EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

emerging and frontier markets:

the unofficial field guide