News and Analysis: 1-19 Dec 2014 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

Based in: Manila, Philippines

Posted on Fri, 19 Dec 14:

Much unfinished work remains as Cuba reforms its economy, Miami Herald, 14 Dec 14:
Cubans use one type of money, the peso, for everyday purchases and most salaries. But tourists generally use another currency, the convertible peso, which is also needed to purchase coveted consumer items. Unifying the cumbersome dual-currency system tops the list of econ reforms, but analysts say other changes are critical to the reform effort

Majority of companies are bullish about ASEAN econ integration prospects, Boston Consult.Grp, 7 Oct 14:
Companies are remarkably bullish about what integration of the 10 member states of the Assn of Southeast Asian Nations will mean for their industries. Eighty percent of companies surveyed regard the integration as a business opportunity, and around half expect to have a strong presence in at least 5 ASEAN economies in 5 years

Holiday Break: 'Open Bethlehem' details campaign to bring down wall around the city, HuffPost, 8 Dec 14:
Oh, little town of Bethlehem... is where filmmaker Leila Sansour returned to visit the place of her childhood, intending to remain for a year. Instead, she stayed for eight and became immersed in a battle to keep the magical place alive, and free from the wall that she saw being built around it (Heartfelt plea against incarceration of a city)

Posted on Wed, 17 Dec 14:

Will the Russian rouble's rout force capital controls?, Bloomberg, by L. Bershidsky, 16 Dec 14:
Russia is not in a situation in which even a 17% interest rate makes holding rouble assets appealing. That's also what happened in Malaysia in '97. When the Asian financial crisis hit, like Russia today, it had big foreign reserves and a low short-term debt level (Nook & cranny: Kaplan / Rodrik--Rethinking Malaysia's capital controls | Krugman -- IMF and capital controls)

Kemal Dervis: The oil price opportunity for climate change, Project Syndicate, 16 Dec 14::
Regardless of the reason for the price drop, the impact on efforts to combat climate change could be devastating. A sustained decline in oil prices would not only make renewable energy sources less competitive now, it would also reduce the incentive for consumers, companies, and govts to pursue more energy-efficient practices, writes Brookings vice pres / fmr UNDP head

Competitive cities - which are they, and why should we care?, World Bank (blog), by Cech & Kulenovic, Mar '14:
With the majority of the world's pop. now urban, less prominent cities are asking how they can attain better econ performance. Hence competitiveness has become a preoccupation for city leaders - by which we mean a city's ability to spawn, expand and attract businesses that create jobs, and to enlarge the overall econ pie, write WB consultants

Posted on Mon, 15 Dec 14:

Robert Stavins: Assessing the outcome of the Lima climate talks, Harvard U (blog), 14 Dec 14:
After 5 days on the ground in Lima, where I participated in a variety of events and met with a diverse set of national negotiating teams, I've reviewed the agreed text of the Lima Call for Climate Action (or the 'Lima decision'), and can now reflect on its gestation, its meaning, and its implications, writes Harvard environmental econ prog dir

David Wessel: How the rising dollar could trigger the next global financial crisis, WSJ, 8 Dec 14 [via Brookings]:
Hyun Song Shin, who is on leave from Princeton while chief economist at the Bank for Int'l Settlements in Basel, spends a lot of time wondering what could cause the next financial crisis. He suspects it will be something different from the leveraged bets on housing that were at the root of the last crisis. So, what might it be?, asks Inst's Hutchings Ctr Fiscal & Monetary Policy dir

Charles Kenny: Why universal health care is no cure-all, Businessweek, 8 Dec 14:
There's good news to report on health care in the US. But the picture is less positive across much of the developing world. While the call for universal health care in every nation is now the official stance of the World Health Org, attempts to meet that goal have often seen limited returns, writes Ctr Global Dev't senior fellow

Posted on Fri, 12 Dec 14:

Pritchett and Summers: Growth slowdowns -- 'middle-income trap' vs. 'regression to the mean', VoxEU, 11 Dec 14:
Dozens of nations think they are in the 'middle-income trap'. But is this trap actually just growth reverting to its mean? This matters since belief in the 'trap' can lead govts to misinterpret current challenges. For lower-middle-income nations the 21st century beckons, but there are still 19th century problems to address, write Harvard prof; and univ pres emeritus

Mohamed El-Erian: Will 2015 be a year of divergence?, Project Syndicate, 8 Dec 14:
In 2015, 'divergence' will be a major global econ theme, applying to trends, policies, and performance. As the year progresses, these divergences will become increasingly difficult to reconcile. The multi-speed global economy will be dominated by 4 groups of nations, writes chair of Pres Obama's Global Dev't Council / chief econ adviser at Allianz

A brief history of financial bubbles, Stanford Univ, 24 Nov 14:
The word 'bubble' has become a common way to describe an economy at risk of overheating. Finance prof Peter Koudijs, who specializes in the history of financial markets, says a bubble is "where investors buy an asset not for its fundamental value, but because they plan to resell, at a higher price, to the next investor." Economies all over the world have strained and burst throughout history

Posted on Wed, 10 Dec 14:

Jeffrey Sachs: Will 2015 be the year of sustainable dev't?, Project Syndicate, 9 Dec 14:
The year 2015 will be our generation's greatest opportunity to move the world toward sustainable development. Three high-level negotiations between July and Dec can reshape the global dev't agenda, and give an important push to vital changes in the workings of the global economy, writes special adviser to UN sec-gen / Columbia U Earth Inst dir

Danny Quah: Lessons for China -- Singapore's epic "regression to the mean", World Bank (blog), 10 Nov 14:
Singapore, in one of the most spectacular of econ accelerations, saw its per capita GDP grow at over 6% per annum for over a decade. But Lant Pritchett and Larry Summers document how after '80, the growth rate plummeted to a figure 4 percentage points lower than during that period of success, writes London Sch Econ prof

John Cochrane: What the inequality warriors really want, WSJ, 20 Nov 14 [via Hoover Inst]:
Inequality may be a symptom of economic problems. But why is inequality itself an economic problem? If some get rich and others get richer, who cares? If we all become poor equally, is that not a problem? Why not fix policies and problems that make it harder to earn more?, asks Inst senior fellow / U Chicago prof

Posted on Mon, 8 Dec 14:

Joseph Stiglitz: The Chinese century, Vanity Fair, Jan '15:
Without fanfare, China has just overtaken the US as the world's largest economy. This is, and should be, a wake-up call -- but not the kind most Americans might imagine. Americans want very much to be No.1 -- we enjoy having that status. In contrast, China is not so eager, writes Nobel Laureate '01 / Columbia U prof

World's top economists warn UN Sustainable Dev't Goals will not succeed without. . . , London Sch Econ, 24 Nov 14:
Some of the world's top economists have warned the UN Sec-Gen, Ban Ki-Moon, in an open letter that the Sustainable Dev't Goals (SDGs) will not succeed without a stronger emphasis on the need for econ growth. Ahead of negotiations to finalize the SDGs -- which will replace the Millennium Dev't Goals -- 18 leading economists signed the open letter

Glenn Hubbard: Why the Internet won't kill business school classrooms, Fortune, 18 Nov 14 [via author's site]:
There is now an anxiety about a revolution in higher education, as massive open online courses proliferate. Since the 1st such course appeared in '08, people have asked whether we still need traditional classrooms. Why attend expensive colleges/univs when you can receive an educ from world-class professors for the cost of an Internet connection?, asks Columbia B-Sch dean

Posted on Fri, 5 Dec 14:

Jim O'Neill: Emerging markets mock the pessimists, Bloomberg, 3 Dec 14 [via Bruegel]:
Remember this time last year, when it was fashionable to predict that '14 would be a pretty bad year for emerging markets? Didn't really happen, did it? Now I hear analysts saying the crisis has only been postponed. It'll happen next year instead. It's possible, but I wouldn't bet on it, writes fmr Goldman Sachs chief economist who coined the term BRIC / visiting res fellow

Development economics and development policy are due for a redesign, World Bank, 2 Dec 14:
Real people are rarely as coherent, forward-looking, strategic or selfish as typically assumed in standard econ models--they sometimes do not pursue their own interests, and can be unexpectedly generous. Such dynamics should be factored more carefully into development policies, says the newly-launched World Development Report 2015: Mind, Society, and Behavior

Amartya Sen: How should we make collective decisions? -- Social choice and social welfare, Proj Syndicate, 26 Nov 14:
Human beings have always lived in groups, and their individual lives have invariably depended on group decisions. But the challenges of group choice can be daunting, particularly given the divergent interests and concerns of the group's members. So, how should collective decision-making be carried out?, asks Nobel Laureate '98 / Harvard prof

Posted on Wed, 3 Dec 14:

Countries on top of rankings must also fight global corruption, Transparency Int'l, 3 Dec 14:
Transparency Int'l called on nations at the top of the index, where public sector corruption is limited, to stop encouraging it elsewhere by doing more to prevent money laundering and to stop secret firms from masking corruption. The Corruption Perceptions Index is based on expert opinions of public sector corruption. The top 3 nations perceived to be least corrupt are Denmark, New Zealand and Finland

Daniel Yergin: The global impact of US shale, Project Syndicate, 8 Jan 14:
The biggest innovation in energy so far this century has been the development of shale gas and the associated resource known as 'tight oil'. Shale energy ranks at the top in part because of its abundance in the US, writes author of The Quest: Energy, security, and the remaking of the modern world (2011) (Gas prices are tumbling, but that's not necessarily a good thing, WP)

The fixer -- The Nobel laureate who uses game theory to make people's lives better, Finance and Dev't, Dec '14:
Economists traditionally study markets where prices adjust so that supply equals demand. But Alvin Roth is a game theorist who specializes in 'matching markets' -- markets in which changes in price alone do not clear the market. Participants can't just choose what they want, even if they can afford it; they also must be chosen. Think college admissions or the dating market

Posted on Mon, 1 Dec 14:

Jeffrey Ball: New powers in the energy sector, Finance and Development, Sep-Nov '14:
An energy revolution is rocking the world: one triggered by an explosion of new energy technologies and supplies. An array of new energy supplies is shaking up today's econ establishment, creating winners and losers worldwide. And key players in the global economy are coming to believe it's a new normal they can't ignore, writes scholar-in-residence at Stanford U Ctr Energy Policy & Finance

The path from cause to effect - Mastering 'metrics', MIT News, 1 Dec 14:
If you would like to produce good quantitative social-science research, try remembering these two words: 'ceteris paribus'. That's Latin for 'other things being equal'. And it's a key principle when designing studies: find two groups of people who, other things being equal, are distinguished by one key feature. Without such a research strategy, scholars can be left staring at a tangle of potential causes and effects

A long-term view on inequality, OECD (blog), 16 Oct 14:
A time-traveler from 200 years ago would find our world almost unrecognizable. Our technologies and lifestyles would seem almost magical -- autos, air travel, our obsession with smart phones. Still, there's one thing that might not surprise our visitor too much: Even though poverty is not what it once was, humanity is still divided between haves and the have-nots (Mapping the history of well-being)

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