News and Analysis: 2-14 Jan 2015 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

Based in: Manila, Philippines

Posted on Wed, 14 Jan 15:

Fragile economic recovery faces major risks, World Bank, 13 Jan 15:
Several major forces are driving the global outlook: soft commodity prices; persistently low interest rates but increasingly divergent monetary policies across major economies; and weak world trade. The sharp decline in oil prices since mid-2014 will help offset some of the headwinds to growth, says the Global Economic Prospects report released today

Nancy Birdsall: My 10 development policy wishes for 2015, Ctr Global Dev't (blog), 13 Jan 15:
In our ever-more-interdependent global system, the rich and powerful can have the largest impact for good through global cooperation on collective-action problems. Think climate change, drug trafficking, conflict-driven humanitarian crises, global financial panic, pandemic disease risk, writes Ctr founding pres

Why China won't keep growing fast forever, NYT, 26 Oct 14 [via Summers' site]:
Official forecasts -- from OECD and the World Bank, and from US intelligence circles -- envision China continuing to grow rapidly over the next couple of decades. But if you look at the long arc of econ history, such performance would be a remarkable aberration. That's the argument that Harvard's Pritchett and Summers make in a new working paper (Asiaphoria meets regression to the mean)

Posted on Mon, 12 Jan 15:

Niall Ferguson: The 'divergent' world of 2015, WSJ, 2 Jan 14 [via Hoover Inst]:
In "Divergent" -- a 'young adult' novel set in a dystopian future not a thousand miles removed from "The Hunger Games" -- humanity is divided into 5 factions according to their dominant character traits: Abnegation, Amity, Candor, Dauntless and Erudite. If you were to sort the world's nations, you would need a slightly modified scheme, writes Harvard prof

Leveraging philanthropy to improve financial inclusion, OECD (blog), by E Romon & S Sidhu, 19 Dec 14::
There is growing evidence that financial sector dev't offers the opportunity to address inequality through interventions to ensure that econ growth translates into poverty reduction and employment. These efforts help to alleviate worries that liberalization of financial markets will lead to narrow corridors of spectacular growth surrounded by a hinterland of poverty

Rodrik: Services, manufacturing, and new growth strategies, Inst Advanced Study (blog), 15 Oct 14:
At a recent talk on New Growth Strategies at the World Bank, I argued that industrialization had pretty much run out of steam as a growth strategy, and services would need to be the focus going forward. There was a fair amount of pushback from those I talked to afterwards, writes Inst Adv Study (Princeton) prof (WB: Confab furthers debate on new solutions for growth)

Posted on Fri, 9 Jan 15:

'No sustainable foreign & security policy without a clear dev't contribution' - EU minister, EurActive, 7 Jan 15:
We have to strengthen the external, security and foreign policy response, which in the short term are dealt with by the humanitarian & crisis response services, and in the longer term are dealt with by dev't actions. There must not be separate, vertical policies. You cannot place dev't policy at the end of the process. We have to take together all 3 aspects (Europe's 1st ever Year of Dev't)

Jeffrey Sachs: Paul Krugman has got it wrong on austerity, Project Syndicate, 6 Jan 15 [via Guardian]:
For several years now, Krugman has delivered one main message to his loyal readers: deficit-cutting 'austerians', as he calls advocates of fiscal austerity, are deluded. Only fools like the UK's leaders, who reminded him of the 'Three Stooges', could believe otherwise, writes Columbia U Earth Inst dir (Krugman: The record of austerity, NYT [blog])

Will the dollar remain the reserve currency?, International Economy Mag, Oct/Dec '14 [PDF]:
Is the rising global chorus to replace the dollar a reflection of far deeper problems in the world financial system? A symposium of views from: W Overholt, W White, J Gagnon, M El-Erian, J Williamson, J Bernstein, E Truman, S Cecchetti, R Cooper, B Eichengreen, O Issing, J Glassman, among other noted observers

Posted on Wed, 7 Jan 15:

Adair Turner: Please steal our fossil fuels, Project Syndicate, 23 Dec 14:
Falling oil, gas, and coal prices threaten to undermine investment in green energy and stimulate wasteful consumption. In the US, sport and crossover utility vehicles are the automobile market’s fastest growing sector, writes UK's Financial Services Authority fmr chair / Ctr Fin Studies (Frankfurt) senior fellow

Dissecting dollar upside -- Q&A with Fred Bergsten, Top of Mind / Goldman Sachs, 17 Dec 14 [PDF]:
Peterson Inst's emeritus director discusses why concerns over currency wars are justified and more broadly laments the role of the dollar in the int'l monetary system: Q--Where do you think the dollar goes from here?; How do current conditions globally compare to the other periods of past dollar strength?, and; How does the current dollar strength end?

An emerging story -- Losing faith in emerging markets, Project M / Allianz, Dec '14:
Back in the 2000s, emerging markets could do no wrong in investors' eyes, as they piggybacked on the success of stellar growth in China and a credit explosion in the United States. Now, the emerging markets' story is being rewritten as investors become more discerning

Posted on Mon, 5 Jan 15:

Bremmer and Kupchan: Top risks of 2015, Eurasia Group, 5 Jan 15:
This report identifies the key geopolitical areas to keep an eye on for global investors, business leaders, and market participants. The major risks to watch this year include Europe, Russia, the effects of China slowdown, the weaponization of finance, and strategic sectors, write Group's pres; and chair

James Manyika: 2014's biggest, wildest ideas, Ozy, 23 Dec 14 [via McKinsey];
While focusing on the past year's individual events is popular, it tends to gloss over the seismic shifts that reshape the landscape. It's the long-term technological and econ trends that matter, and from those come my idiosyncratic list of things that changed the conversation in '14, and signal even bigger transformations ahead, writes McK Global Inst dir

Posted on Fri, 2 Jan 15:

Martin Feldstein: The Fed's needless flirtation with danger, WSJ, 25 Dec 14 [via Harvard]:
Extremely low interest rates caused lenders and investors to reach for yield, for example by taking greater risks through lower-quality loans with fewer lender protections, and accepting narrower spreads on risky bonds. The risks brought about by unconventional monetary policy were unnecessary, writes Pres Reagan's Council Econ Advisers chair / Harvard prof

Coffee/Tea Room: Brigitte Miksa -- It's all over now, Baby Boomer, Project Syndicate, 12 Dec 14:
When the last baby boomer, who was born in '64, turns 50 this New Year's Eve, the generation that once seemed to define for the world the energy, excitement, and even irritating nature of youth will officially be 'old' -- even if, some might say, not entirely grown up. But what does this really mean?, asks Allianz Asset Mgmt's head of int'l pensions

Where's the romance? Special economic zones (SEZs) and cities, World Bank (blog), by Kilroy/Norman, 25 Aug 14:
SEZs and cities are often wed in a marriage of convenience. SEZs have a basic need for what cities can offer: deep and specialized labor pools; specialized suppliers and business services; connectivity to national and global markets; and favorable lifestyles for potential investors. But can SEZs and cities achieve more if they get beyond a physical relationship?

EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

emerging and frontier markets:

the unofficial field guide