News and Analysis: 18-30 June 2014 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

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Posted on Mon, 30 June 14:

Bulgaria urges account holders to keep their calm after bank runs, Deutsche Welle, 30 June 14:
The European Commission said Mon it had granted a 3.3-bil.-lev ($2.3-bil.) credit line to Bulgaria to help support the banking system. Bulgarian leaders had appealed to citizens not to withdraw all their savings as banks in the EU's poorest member state reopened Mon. The call came just days after runs on two major lenders, raising widespread fears that the Balkan nation's financial stability was in jeopardy

Joseph Stiglitz: The myth of America's golden age, Politico Mag, July/Aug '14:
I am, perhaps, naive enough to believe it is not capitalism alone that is at fault. I have spent my career as an economist second-guessing markets, demonstrating their imperfections, and yet markets can be a powerful force for increasing standards of living for all. But we need a balance of the kind we achieved in the middle of the 20th century, writes Nobel Laureate '01 / Columbia U prof

William Easterly: Dictator worship, Prospect Mag, Apr '14 [PDF, courtesy New York Univ]:
Autocratic growth miracles may at first seem persuasive -- just look at the remarkable econ growth that occurred under Deng Xiaoping in China, under the single-party leaderships of Lee Kuan Yew in Singapore and of Park Chung Hee in SKorea. But it takes some work to understand that these claims are not quite what they seem, writes NYU Development Res Inst co-dir

Posted on Fri, 27 June 14:

The new jet age, Vanity Fair, by G Boynton, July '14:
Dubai International Airport has surpassed Heathrow as the world's busiest global hub, while three Gulf airlines--Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad--are scooping up passengers. Boarding a lavishly appointed Airbus A380 at Dubai's $4.5 bil. Terminal 3, the writer examines the tectonic shift in aviation that threatens to leave the West's cramped, bare-bones carriers in the dust

Joshua Gans: The easy target that is the Theory of Disruptive Innovation, Digitopoly, 16 June 14:
There are so many ways in which Clay Christensen is an easy target. One is that the 'theory of disruptive innovation' has been remarkably successful. All of the noted tech leaders of the past two decades have been influenced by his theory. But for every theory that reaches too far, there is a nugget of truth lurking at the center, writes Univ Toronto prof

Brett House: We need hard and soft approaches to trade liberalization, Salzburg Global Seminar, 22 May 14 [via CIGI]:
It's worth taking stock and considering how "softer" processes outside the WTO's "hard" legally-binding environment may be put in place to ensure the possibilities created at Bali are realized. The global macroeconomic environment for trade liberalization is unlikely to improve in the near term, writes senior fellow at Ctr Intl Governance Innov and McGill Univ

Posted on Wed, 25 June 14:

Henry Paulson: The coming climate crash, NY Times, 24 June 14 [via Virginian Pilot]:
For too many years, we failed to rein in the excesses building up in the nation's financial markets. When the credit bubble burst in '08, the damage was devastating. Millions suffered. Many still do. We're making the same mistake today with climate change, writes Pres GW Bush's Treasury Secretary (Media release of report: Risky Business - The economic risks of climate change in the US)

Asia tops the world in foreign direct investment - report, Unctad, 24 June 14:
Asia continues to be the world's top recipient region of foreign direct investment, accounting for nearly 30% of global FDI inflows, Unctad's World Investment Report 2014 reveals. Total inflows to developing Asia (excl West Asia) in '13 was 4% higher than in '12. China again ranked 2nd in the world and narrowed the gap with the US, the nation with the largest global inflows

Report offers solutions to narrow $1 trillion-a-year infrastructure gap, Boston Consult.Group, 2 Apr 14:
As nations worldwide experience severe infrastructure needs owing to growing populations, increasing urbanization, and aging legacy assets, a huge opportunity exists to address those needs through a faster, cheaper, and often overlooked alternative to new construction: optimizing existing assets through better operations and maintenance, acc. to a new World Economic Forum report, prepared in collaboration with BCG

Posted on Mon, 23 June 14:

Argentina's debt fight - what it is, why it matters, AP, 23 June 14:
Argentina's 13-year fight with creditors erupted in US courts last week, and the results were messy. Argentina had asked the Supreme Court to overturn a lower court's ruling that it must pay $1.5 bil. to hedge funds for bonds Argentina had defaulted on in '01. The Supreme Court refused to hear its appeal. One misstep and Argentina could slide toward another default, which would likely spread trouble beyond its shores

Boardroom/C-suite: The guru's job -- disruption vs. continuity?, Economic Principals, 22 June 14:
Chances are, unless you are a biz school grad, you've never read anything by biz guru Clayton Christensen of The Innovator's Dilemma fame. Harvard historian Lepore describes the Harvard B-School prof 's "disruption theory" as the product of a particular mood and moment in time - as she puts it, a "competitive strategy for an age seized by terror". In the end, she says, it turns out to be an unreliable guide to action

Alberto Alesina: Regional reckonings - decentralization done wrong, Manhattan Inst City Journal, Jan-Mar '14:
In theory, decentralization brings government closer to the people, increasing popular control and making politicians more accountable. It should also create an efficient division of roles among levels of government. To succeed, however, decentralization must be based on sound principles, writes Harvard prof

Posted on Fri, 20 June 14:

Moises Naim: Latin America's three supercycles, WEForum (blog), 18 June 14:
All eyes are on Latin America for the World Cup--a celebration not just of sport, but also of the progress that much of the region has enjoyed in the past decade. The years ahead, however, will prove more challenging, as the region's 34 nations are facing the end of three important cycles--or supercycles--that have helped drive econ growth and fight poverty, says Carnegie Endowment senior assoc

Robert Skidelsky: Post-crash economics, Project Syndicate, 19 June 14 [courtesy Author's site]:
We may be witnessing the beginning of the end of the neoliberal capitalist consensus that has prevailed throughout the West since the 80s--and that many claim led to the econ disaster of 2008-9. Particularly important is the growing discontent of econ students with the university curriculum, writes award-winning biographer of Keynes / member of UK House of Lords (DeLong: Response to 'Post- crash economics')

Emerging markets face tough climb back to past growth levels, IMF Survey Mag, 12 June 14:
As the global environment turns less supportive and productivity gains of the last decade fade, growth in emerging markets will have to come from new engines, supported by a new wave of structural reforms, a new study says. The study observes that, despite the changing external environment, sustained growth in these countries is still possible

Posted on Wed, 18 June 14:

Barry Eichengreen: Leaners of last resort, Project Syndicate, 11 June 14:
With Jeremy Stein's return to Harvard at the end of May, the US Fed lost its leading proponent of the view that monetary policy should be used to lean against financial excesses. His view is a refutation of the Greenspan doctrine that the Fed should not adjust policy in response to financial-sector excesses, but instead should concentrate on reacting to any problems that subsequently arise, writes UC-Berkeley prof

Romer and Fuller: Planning for rapid urbanization, New York Univ, Feb '14:
Urbanization in the developing world is not only happening faster and more dramatically than might be imagined, it threatens to become unmanageable. But with foresight, rapidly urbanizing nations can channel this headlong growth to make tremendous progress. The solution is not just to build out existing cities, says NYU prof; and res scholar (Romer on "Approaching the city through Pasteur's Quadrant")

Coffee/Tea Room: Richard Florida -- The mixed-up geographic allegiances of World Cup Soccer, Atlantic (blog), 11 June 14:
The World Cup in Brazil this month is a battle of nations. But the top football leagues in the world are far more geographically concentrated. Over the next few weeks, footballers who play together professionally during the regular season will soon find themselves pitted against one another on opposite sides of the field, writes U Toronto Martin Prosperity Inst dir

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