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EmergingFrontierMarkets.comemerging and frontier markets:the unofficial field guideSite
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Romana, Leonardo L.
Based in: Manila,
Philippines
Posted on Mon, 16 June 14: Investors returning to most emerging East Asia markets – Bond Monitor, Asian Devt Bank, 4 June 14: Local and offshore demand for emerging East Asia's local currency bonds is rising again and should continue given strong econ prospects, said the latest Asia Bond Monitor. However, it warns that markets could still be jolted by the tapering in US quantitative easing, the slowdown in China, or moves by the ECB to counter the threat of deflation (Local currency bonds catch on as nations aim to catch up - WB) Predicting (or not) the future of the world economy, Columbia U, Feb-Mar '14: Five of the foremost economists of our time match wits with the Foreign Affairs editor to uncover the trends that will move markets in the months and years to come:
On balance, the invasion of Iraq did not advance the war on terror. There is, in fact, consensus among analysts that the war in Iraq diverted attention and resources away from the campaign against al Qaeda and the Taliban. At the same time, it provided al Qaeda with a new front, a new recruiting poster, and a new destination for global jihadists, writes senior adviser to the Rand pres Posted on Fri, 13 June 14: European Central Bank's Mario Draghi responds to India's Raghu Rajan, Brookings (blog), by D Wessel, 9 June 14: Rajan, India's central banker, has been saying loudly that the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan need to take more notice of the impact their unconventional monetary policies have on emerging markets. Rajan has continued to press his case, most recently in a speech in Tokyo in late May. Now it's ECB pres Draghi's turn, writes Inst's Hutchins Ctr dir New 'global housing watch' throws spotlight on booms and busts, IMF Survey Mag, 11 June 14: IMF launches a web page, Global Housing Watch, which brings together housing market info to keep track of boom and bust cycles and nudge policy makers to take early action to moderate housing booms. Housing is an essential sector of every country's economy, but it has also been a source of instability for financial institutions and countries A nation, building -- Vietnam's economic development, Harvard Mag, May-June '14: On a recent morning, during a class on global trade, the prof reviewed the effects of nations' limits on such commerce to his students arrayed in a teaching amphitheater laid out like the classrooms at Harvard. But despite the similarity, this one took place at the compact campus of the Fulbright Economics Teaching Prog (aka the Fulbright School), off a narrow, twisting alley in Ho Chi Minh City Posted on Wed, 11 June 14: Brazil, other markets are no longer 'Fragile Five', AP, 11 June 14: Soccer fans will focus on Brazil and the World Cup, but investors have been entranced by that nation's stock market for months. Brazil has company. From Sao Paulo to Mumbai, investors are regaining their faith in emerging markets this year. It's a big shift from '13, when conditions got so tough that five big emerging markets -- Brazil, SAfrica, India, Indonesia and Turkey -- were dubbed the 'Fragile Five' by analysts Hendrix and Noland: How 'rogue' is China's aid?, Washington Post, 10 June 14 [courtesy Peterson Inst]: The Chinese premier's pledge in May of $12 bil. in new aid to Africa reflects China's rise to the status of major player in global development finance, with annual assistance equaling or surpassing the US, the biggest player in the aid game. This trend could be heralded as good news. Other observers are more skeptical, write Inst senior fellow; and exec vice pres Robert Shiller: Buying insurance against climate change, NY Times, 24 May 14 [courtesy Yale]: The problem is an age-old one: Each nation has a strong individual incentive to take a free ride on the rest of the world -- to find self-serving justifications for adding carbon dioxide to the global air supply. Such behavior, which in some ways might benefit the individual nation while hurting everyone else, is known in econ as an 'externality' problem, writes Nobel Laureate '13 / Yale prof Posted on Mon, 9 June 14: Lawrence Summers: The rich have advantages that money cannot buy, FT, 8 June 14 [courtesy Harvard]: A famous literary spat between 1920s novelists F Scott Fitzgerald and Ernest Hemingway has been boiled down over time to a succinct, if apocryphal, exchange. Fitzgerald: "The rich are different from you and me." Hemingway's retort: "Yes, they have more money", writes Pres Obama's Natl Econ Council fmr head / Harvard prof Five growth mysteries in search of a broader innovation policy, World Bank, 2 June 14: The bank's research dept lead economist considers 5 mysteries relating to innovation policy, incl: why did nations experience such different outcomes despite similar production structures?; why did immigrants often dominate the industrialization process in LatAm, despite facing the same biz environment as the locals?; why is it that poor nations seem to invest so little in R&D?; and why does China do so much? Who wants to be the messenger?, Project M (Allianz), May '14: Nostalgia for the 'golden days' of pre-'08 is exerting a powerful allure in the West. Back then economic growth was relatively strong and jobs plentiful. It was a dynamic that enabled politicians to lavish promises on their electorates. Yet the world was living an illusion and its siren song is dangerous today, warn 2 prominent UK economists Posted on Fri, 6 June 14: Interest rates should already be higher -- John Taylor, Wall St Journal (blog), 2 June 14 [courtesy Hoover Inst]: We caught up with the Stanford U's prof at a Hoover Inst confab on the Fed's 100-year anniversary. Our main topic of conversation, which is being hotly debated in markets and at the Fed, was where short-term interest rates should be in the years ahead, after the Fed lifts them from zero. The Fed has traditionally seen 4% as the appropriate rate for a healthy and balanced economy David Dollar: China's rebalancing opens new opportunities for developing countries, Brookings (blog), 2 June 14: China's growth has been extremely reliant on investment in recent years. Investment as a share of gross domestic product has risen above 50%. The problem with this is that after some years excess capacity starts to build up and the return to further investment falls. For this reason, China's new leaders are trying to implement reforms that would rebalance the economy, writes fmr US Treas econ emissary to China / Inst senior fellow William Easterly: The flaw in Bill Gates' approach to ending global poverty, Seattle Times, 24 Mar 14: Somehow--probably my own fault--I have wound up on Bill Gates' list of the world's most misguided economists for being an 'aid critic'. I actually admire Gates for his generosity and advocacy for the fight against global poverty through the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. We just disagree about how to end poverty throughout the world, writes NYU Devt Res Inst co-dir Posted on Wed, 4 June 14: Joseph Stiglitz: Creating a learning society, Project Syndicate, 3 June 14: Industrial policies--in which govts intervene in the allocation of resources among sectors or favor some technologies--can help 'infant economies' learn. Such policies, when adopted, have been frequent targets of criticism. Govt, it is often said, should not be engaged in picking winners, writes Nobel Laureate '01 / author of new book Creating a Learning Society: A new approach to growth, devt, and social progress (Excerpt) BRICS emerging nations close to launching bank; to start lending in '16, Reuters, 30 May 14: The 5 BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China & SAfrica) will likely agree to fund their $100 bil. development effort equally, giving them the same rights in a new multilateral bank that could start lending in 2 years, a senior Brazilian govt official said. The new bank would symbolize the growing influence of emerging economies in the global financial architecture long dominated by the IMF and World Bank Lessons from Asia in financial development, Columbia Univ, 24 Jan 14: Q&A with Hugh Patrick, Ctr on Japanese Economy & Business dir, on the liberalization of financial systems behind the remarkable econ development of China, Japan, and Korea. Q: Why these 3 nations -- and why not Taiwan this time around?; Each of these nations is obviously unique, but is there any underlying pattern you can point to that characterizes the development of their financial systems? Posted on Mon, 2 June 14:
Jim O‘Neill: A ten-step program to tap India's great potential, Bruegel (blog), 22 May 14: Last year I made a quick visit to see the then chief minister of Gujarat, Narendra Modi. He'd asked me to give a presentation on how India could realize its still-enormous potential. India scores poorly on indexes of variables that are critical for econ efficiency--worse than Brazil, China and even Russia. To change that, it needs to do ten things, writes creator of the acronym BRIC / Ctr's visiting res fellow Nancy Birdsall: Who you callin' middle class? A plea to the development community, Ctr Global Devt (blog), 18 Apr 14: It's time to stop labeling millions of people in the developing world who have escaped $2 a day poverty as 'middle class'. The Asian Devt Bank does it, and the African Devt Bank does it. The $2 a day intl 'line' of moderate poverty matters only in the abstract, not in the lives of people like Mohamed Bouazizi in Tunisia on about $5 day when he immolated himself in late '10, setting off the Arab Spring, writes Ctr pres Coffee/Tea Room: The World Cup and economics 2014, Goldman Sachs, 27 May 14: We present this guide as a companion to the upcoming Rio Cup, with the usual unnatural mix of football and economics. This is our 5th edition since the '98 World Cup in Paris. We have invested in a model of the probability of success in a match between any 2 given teams, based on their track record and characteristics. Brazil will be pleased to see it emerges as the clear favorite, helped by a home team advantage |