News and Analysis: 18-30 July 2014 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

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Posted on Wed, 30 July 14:

Changing growth trends carry new global spillovers, IMF Survey Mag, 29 July 14:
As the world economy shifts from crisis to recovery mode, the changing growth patterns--with advanced economies recovering and emerging markets slowing down--carry new spillover risks, says the 2014 Spillover Report. It assesses the impact of policy actions in one nation on others (spillovers) and the possible consequences for the original spillover-source economies themselves (spillbacks)

John Taylor: How to spark another 'Great Moderation', WSJ, 15 July 14 [courtesy Hoover Inst]:
Sound money and free markets go hand in hand. In the '80s, UK PM Thatcher and Pres Reagan made sound money principles a key part of their market-based reform platforms. The reason is clear: Econ crises and slow growth, as in the Great Depression of the '30s and the Great Inflation of the '70s, could be traced to deviations from sound rules-based monetary policy, writes Pres GW Bush's Treas undersecy / Stanford prof

Reassessing the paradigms for emerging markets, Univ Chicago, 23 Apr 14:
In a recent forum on emerging markets, one refreshing theme was a rejection of older pan-emerging market paradigms. The forum included no shortage of the usual, oft-repeated terms, such as BRICs, MINTs (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey), CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, SAfrica), or just the Next Eleven. Yet these acronyms were mostly used with some degree of condescension

Posted on Mon, 28 July 14:

What impact would an Argentine default have?, AFP, 26 July 14 [via Yahoo]:
Under a US court order, Argentina has until Wed, 30 July, to either pay hedge funds demanding full payment on of its bad debts--or face a default that could have serious econ consequences. The South American country has just days to deal with the fallout of its previous '01 default. It had persuaded 92% of its creditors to accept writeoffs of up to 70%, but is now facing a Catch-22

Min Zhu: Asia's seismic shift -- How can the financial sector serve better?, IMF (blog), 21 July 14:
The structure of the economies of Asia is expected to continue to transform from a narrower manufacturing hub to a group of vibrant, diverse and large markets with a rising middle-class population. The role of the financial sector is critical in the success of this seismic transformation, writes IMF dep managing dir

Robert Shiller: Are we heading for another economic crisis?, Project Syndicate, 15 July 14 [via WEForum (blog)]:
In recent months, concern has intensified among the world's financial experts and news media that overheated asset markets--real estate, equities and long-term bonds--could lead to another crisis. But the general public seems unbothered. This heightened concern carries dangers because we do not know whether it will lead to a public overreaction, writes Nobel Laureate '13 / Yale prof

Posted on Thu, 24 July 14:

2.2 billion people are poor or near-poor, warns Human Development Report (HDR), UNDP, 24 July 14:
The latest annual HDR says that acc. to income-based measures, 1.2 bil. people live with $1.25 or less a day. However, the latest estimates of the multi-dimensional poverty index reveal that almost 1.5 bil. are living in poverty with overlapping deprivations in health, education and living standards. And although poverty is declining overall, almost 800 mil. are at risk of falling back into poverty if setbacks occur

Jeffrey Sachs: The waste of war, Project Syndicate, 21 July 14:
Karl Marx famously wrote that history repeats itself, "the 1st time as tragedy, the 2nd time as farce." Here we are, at the centenary of the outbreak of WWI, and we find ourselves surrounded by cascading violence, duplicity, and cynicism of the very sort that brought the world to disaster in 1914. And the world regions involved then are involved again, writes Columbia U Earth Inst dir

Kimberly Elliott: Mega-regional trade pacts -- boon or bane for developing nations?, Ctr Global Devt (blog), 8 July 14:
The US is negotiating trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic trade/investment pacts that would cover more than half of global trade. But most developing nations, and all of the poorest and most vulnerable, are on the outside looking in. Should excluded developing nations be worried about these mega-regional trade deals? If so, how should they respond?, asks Ctr senior fellow

Posted on Tue, 22 July 14:

Switzerland, UK lead innovation rankings with encouraging signs from Africa, Cornell-Insead-WIPO, 18 July 14:
Amid a newly documented slowdown in the growth of global R&D, the theme of the Global Innovation Index 2014--published by Cornell Univ, Insead and the World Intellectual Property Org--is the 'human factor in innovation', exploring the role of human capital in the innovation process. It surveys 143 economies, using 81 indicators to gauge both their innovation capabilities and measurable results

Negotiators aim to cinch Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement in Nov, Yomiuri Shimbun, 14 July 14 [via SL Post-Dispatch]:
Chief negotiators from 12 nations participating in talks on the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade agreement plan to meet again before their ministers are to reach a basic agreement in Nov. Just before this meeting in Ottawa, Pres Obama expressed a stance of aiming to reach a basic agreement by the time of a summit meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum this Nov

Richard Baldwin: Three reasons to worry about mega-regional trade deals, WEForum (blog), 10 July 14:
Trade liberalization has progressed with historically unprecedented speed in the 21st century. The policy reforms that underpinned it were implemented by a tangled mess of regional trade agreements, unilateral reforms and bilateral investment treaties. The good news is that mega-regional trade deals, such as the trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic deals, will tidy up the mess, writes Graduate Inst Intl/Devt Studies (Switz) prof

Posted on Fri, 18 July 14:

Aviation safety in spotlight after some airlines avoided Ukraine, Reuters, 18 July 14:
The issue of whether to avoid flying over conflict zones has come into sharp focus since the downing of MH17. The European Aviation Safety Agency did issue a safety bulletin, accompanied by recommendations from both the Intl Civil Aviation Org and Brussels-based Eurocontrol, on 3 Apr, advising that Crimean airspace should be avoided. But those directives did not apply to the airspace being traversed by Flight MH17

Gaddy and Ickes: Reality check for Russia, Milken Inst Review, 17 July 14 [PDF]:
Before the confrontation created by the annexation of Crimea, Russia's leaders were focused on a different crisis. Since Mar, the debate about econ reform and growth has, of course, been overshadowed by the threat posed by Western sanctions. But even if the economy escapes unscathed from sanctions, Russia will still face a growth crisis, write Brookings senior fellow; and Penn State U Ctr Intl Fin/Energy Secur dir

Eswar Prasad: The dollar reigns supreme -- by default, Nikkei Asian Rev, 9 June 14 [PDF, courtesy Prasad's site]:
The dominance of the dollar is not necessarily a reflection of strong US policies. Rather, it is a consequence of weaknesses in other nations' policies and financial markets, and a dysfunctional international monetary system. Is the dollar-centric system fragile and likely to end in a disorderly manner, with a sharp fall in the value of the dollar?, asks Brookings senior fellow / Cornell U prof

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