News and Analysis: 1-15 Aug 2014 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

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Posted on Fri, 15 Aug 14:

Johnston/Bahney: Hitting ISIS where it hurts - Disrupt ISIS's cash flow in Iraq, NYT, 13 Aug 14 [courtesy Rand Corp]:
We have analyzed hundreds of ISIS financial documents captured by US/Iraqi forces since '05, and we've found no evidence that ISIS has ever relied on foreign patrons for funding. ISIS's meticulous records show that its money came mostly from protection rackets that extorted the commercial, reconstruction, and oil sectors of northern Iraq's economy, write Rand analysts

Eswar Prasad: Keys to successful reform in India, WSJ, 5 July 14 [PDF, courtesy Cornell U]:
Despite his clear mandate, India's new PM will not have a free hand to impose reforms by decree. He is constrained by a democratic system of gov't and accountability to the electorate. To be successful, he will need an iron will and a plan of action that involves quickly plucking low-hanging fruit but also getting started on more fundamental reforms, writes Brookings senior fellow / Cornell U prof

Rich: The telescope and the microscope -- Policy analysis wisdom from Les Misérables, Rand Review, 3rd qtr '14:
My favorite line from Victor Hugo's classic book didn't make it into the musical or the film. It comes in the section of the story when Jean Valjean and Cosette are living incognito in Paris. "Where the telescope ends, the microscope begins. Which of the two has the grander view?" The question, I think, has deep meaning for policy analysis, writes Rand Corp pres/CEO

Posted on Wed, 13 Aug 14:

Inequality -- a key issue of economic research, Lindau Meeting of Nobel Laureates, 11 Aug 14 [via EurekAlert]:
In a coming meeting, participating Nobel laureates and aspiring young economists will have plenty of opportunity for an intensive exchange of ideas. Among the sessions will be plenary lectures by Joseph Stiglitz ('Inequality, wealth and growth: why capitalism is failing'), Eric Maskin ('Why haven't global markets reduced inequality in developing nations?') and James Mirrlees ('Some interesting taxes and subsidies')

Productivity and development - Competitive services can help, but can't do everything, OECD (blog), 2 July 14:
A new report devotes special attention to the services sector that has great potential to support middle-income nations to converge to industrial-nation income levels. Yet, bypassing industrialization and focusing directly on boosting services is not -- or not yet -- a proven success strategy for upgrading to middle-income, let alone, high-income, status. Even small, rich service nations like Singapore first industrialized

Jeffrey Frankel: Emerging-market target practice, Project Syndicate, 24 June 14:
For central bankers to communicate their intentions simply and clearly, they may set an explicit target range in terms of a particular econ variable, or announce a forecast for the variable, or offer forward guidance by specifying a threshold value for it that must be met before changing interest rates. But what should that one variable be?, asks member of the NBER cmte that acts as the official US arbiter of recession/recovery

Posted on Mon, 11 Aug 14:

McArthur and Mowlds: Investing in evidence to end hunger, Devex, 1 Aug 14:
Ending hunger remains at the forefront of long-term global political priorities. The proposed goal aligns well with the UN's Zero Hunger Challenge. This objective is universal, but translating it from rhetoric to action requires recognition of agriculture's highly differentiated nature in each part of the world, write UN Foundation senior fellow; and Brookings Inst analyst

Meyersson and Rodrik: Erdogan's coup in Turkey, Foreign Affairs, 26 May 14 [PDF, courtesy Inst Advanced Study]:
Western depictions of Turkish politics have finally begun to catch up with the authoritarian reality. Unfortunately, the West's new narrative suffers from several weaknesses and omissions. Turkey's authoritarian turn is typically portrayed as a recent one, following on the heels of what are commonly described as significant democratic reforms in the last decade under Erdogan, write Stockholm Sch Econ prof; and Inst prof

Joel Mokyr: The next Age of Invention, City Journal (Manhattan Inst), Jan-Mar '14:
Pessimism is most prevalent among economists such as Northwestern U's Robert Gordon, who expects growth to slow to a small fraction of what it was in the past. Certainly, it is difficult to know exactly in which direction technological change will move and how significant it will be. Yet something can be learned from the past, writes Northwestern U prof (Is US economic stagnation inevitable?, Reason)

Posted on Fri, 8 Aug 14:

Low: Trade discord delivers fresh dent to WTO credibility, S. China Morning Post, 6 Aug 14 [courtesy Fung Global Inst]:
The World Trade Org is in the news again. The last time was in Dec when a deal struck in Bali ended more than a decade of deadlock in the Doha Round of trade talks. This time, it is because govts have failed to meet the 1st deadline for action set in Bali. Perhaps the most distressing part of this story is the fact that India did not have a problem with the deal, writes Inst vice-pres / fmr WTO chief economist

Jeffrey Sachs: How to decarbonize the global economy, FT (blog), 8 July 14 [PDF, courtesy Columbia U]:
When the research teams of the UN Decarbonization Project began their study, they noted that today's global carbon dioxide emissions of 35 bil. tons per year will have to fall to some 10-15 bil. tons a year by mid-century, and then to net-zero emissions in the 2nd half of this century. But how can such low-emission levels be met at the same time as the world economy is growing?, asks Columbia Earth Inst dir

How can mega-cities innovate to reduce traffic congestion?, UNDP (blog), 6 June 14:
How do the 15 mil. residents of the Bangladeshi capital Dhaka get to work? 'Slowly' is the answer. It's common for a short commute to take longer than an hour. Its now infamous traffic jams have been equated to a loss of $3.9 bil. in productivity each year, or 3.3% of its GDP ("Doesn't anybody care about this traffic?!", Stanford U | 7 ways cities around the world are tackling traffic, WEForum [blog])

Posted on Wed, 6 Aug 14:

Dervis, Talbott & Blum: Jump-starting inclusive growth in the most difficult environments, Brookings (blog), 31 July 14:
In the '90s, a mere 13 emerging economies succeeded in growing at a speed at least twice that of the OECD nations, enabling rapid convergence on Western living standards. By the 1st decade of the 2000s, this number had mushroomed to 83. Yet in a number of places, growth has failed to take off, write Inst vice-pres, pres, and UC-Berkeley Blum Ctr founder

Robert Rotberg: Is Africa's meteoric economic rise sustainable?, Globe and Mail, 18 June 14 [courtesy CIGI]:
Sub-Saharan Africa is indeed rising. Thanks to Chinese demand for raw materials, esp. petroleum and iron ore, much of Africa is growing. Many of the globe's fastest advancing nations are in Africa. But is this sustainable? Will African economies expand fast enough to deliver jobs, education and health services as their populations surge relentlessly?, asks Ctr senior fellow / fmr research chair at North-South Inst

Coffers: Laurence Kotlikoff -- Why no one should use US brokerage accounts, PBS Newshour (blog), 20 June 14:
If our money is invested with any of our 4,000 brokerage firms, our money is 'protected' by a Wall St agency--the Securities Investors Protection Corp (SIPC). But asking Wall St to protect us from Wall St was, and is, asking for trouble, writes Boston U prof / Tax Analysis Ctr dir (Your brokerage account is safe with the SIPC, says CEO)

Posted on Mon, 4 Aug 14:

Late to the party, Obama seeks bigger US Africa role, Reuters, 4 Aug 14 [via Namibian]:
The 4-6 Aug US-Africa Leaders Summit in Wash., billed by US officials as a 1st-of-its-kind event, looks like a belated imitation of Africa gatherings hosted in recent years by China, India, Japan and the continent's fmr colonial master Europe. Total US two-way trade in Africa has actually fallen off in recent years, far eclipsed by the European Union and China

Larry Summers: The economic challenge of the future - jobs, WSJ, 7 July 14 [courtesy Summers' site]:
What has happened in agriculture over the past century is remarkable. The share of American workers employed in agric has declined from over a third a century ago to 1-2% today. What has happened in agric is happening to much of the rest of the economy. In Marc Andreessen's phrase, "Software is eating the world," writes Pres Obama's fmr National Econ Council chair and Pres Clinton's fmr Treas Secy

Slowdown in emerging markets -- Not just a hiccup?, IMF (blog), by E Tsounta and K Kochhar, 25 June 14:
Emerging markets have been experiencing strong growth for the period 2000-12, higher than in the previous 2 decades. In the last 2 to 3 years, however, growth in most emerging markets has been cooling off, in some cases quite rapidly. Is the recent slowdown just a hiccup or a sign of a more chronic condition? To answer this question, we look 1st at the factors behind this strong growth performance

Posted on Fri, 1 Aug 14:

India's resistance to key trade agreement deals 'major blow' to WTO, Deutsche Welle, 1 Aug 14:
India's refusal to ratify a key WTO deal due to disagreements over New Delhi's food subsidies represents a major setback for the intl trade body as a negotiating forum, says Peterson Inst's Gary Hufbauer in a Q&A: Why did India refuse to sign the trade facilitation agreement?; Could New Delhi's stance derail the whole process of world trade liberalization?

Kenneth Rogoff: Argentina is not solely to blame for its latest debt default, Project Syndicate, 1 Aug 14 [via Guardian]:
Argentina's latest default poses unsettling questions for policy makers. True, the nation's periodic debt crises are often the result of self-destructive macroeconomic policies. But, this time, the default has been triggered by a significant shift in the intl sovereign-debt regime, which favors hardline creditors in bond issuances governed by US law, writes fmr IMF chief economist / Deutsche Bank Prize in fin econ '11 recipient

Cybercafe: Internet or toilets?, World Bank (blog), by Uwe Deichmann, 21 July 14:
Why should we invest in Internet access in developing nations when there are more important problems like providing clean toilets? That was a question posed to Vint Cerf in a recent talk. In the '70s, he was part of a small team that developed the protocols that guide the open global system that we now all rely on. Today he is Google's chief Internet evangelist and a pre-eminent thinker about the Internet

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