News and Analysis: 16-30 Jan 2015 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

Based in: Manila, Philippines

Posted on Fri, 30 Jan 15:

End of austerity in the European Union?, Deutsche Welle, 29 Jan 15:
Despite all denials in Berlin and Brussels, many politicians can indeed imagine some debt relief for Athens. But this is not just about Greece. Just as austerity advocates say reforms are bearing fruit, fears are growing in northern Europe that parties imitating Greece's Syriza may threaten the consolidation consensus. Is the EU about to reject austerity?

James Galbraith: The Greek hope, Social Europe Journal, 27 Jan 14:
What leverage does Greece have? Obviously, not much; the heavy weapons are on the other side. But there is something. PM Tsipras and his team can present the case of reason without threats of any kind. Then the right and moral gesture on the other side would be to throw their cudgels out of the room and to grant Greece fiscal space, writes U Texas/Austin prof

Report provides new data to help ensure Asian urban growth benefits the poor, World Bank, 26 Jan 15:
Almost 200 mil. people moved to urban areas in East Asia from 2000-2010 -- a figure that would be the world's 6th-largest pop. for any single nation, acc. to a new report, "East Asia's Changing Urban Landscape: Measuring a decade of spatial growth". China's Pearl River Delta overtook Tokyo to become the world's largest urban area, with 42 mil. people

Posted on Wed, 28 Jan 15:

Dubai overtakes London's Heathrow to become world's busiest airport, Telegraph, 27 Jan 14:
Dubai Int'l has soared past London's Heathrow to become the world's top airport for int'l travel, riding a boom in long-haul flights between Asia and the West. Traffic at the airport for passengers flying outside Dubai surged to 69.9 mil., overtaking Heathrow's 68.1 mil. However, Dubai is still behind Heathrow in terms of overall passengers, incl domestic flights

Jeffrey Sachs: Why it's time to raise the federal tax on gasoline, Politico Mag, 19 Jan 15:
The recent decline in world oil prices is a windfall for consumers, and windfalls should be put to work rather than frittered away. Even if three-fourths of the recent decline were to go straight to consumers' wallets, just one-fourth could be used to rebuild infrastructure and encourage the shift to low-carbon energy, writes Columbia U Earth Inst dir

IMF credibility has reached a crossroads, Globe and Mail, by K Carmichael, 12 Jan 15 [via CIGI]:
Finance ministers from the G20 are scheduled to gather for the 1st time in '15 early next month in Istanbul. It will be an important meeting for them. They will be showing the world whether they should be taken seriously. In Nov, the G20 gave the US an ultimatum: ratify the 4-year-old agreement to overhaul the IMF or else. The US ignored the threat, writes Ctr senior fellow

Posted on Mon, 26 Jan 15:

No debt haircut for Greece but bailout extension an option - Germany, Reuters, 26 Jan 15:
The German gov't stuck to its view on Mon that a 3rd haircut, or debt restructuring, for Greece was out of the question but opened the door to a possible extension of Greece's current bailout program. Greek anti-austerity leftist party Syriza swept to victory in a snap election on Sun, with leader Alexis Tsipras promising that 5 years of austerity were over

Alexis Tsipras: End austerity before fear kills Greek democracy, FT, 20 Jan 15 [via Social Europe]:
Public debt has risen to a staggering 177% of gross domestic product. This is unsustainable; meeting the payments is very hard. We demand repayment terms that do not cause recession, writes Syriza leader (Syriza expected to name economist Varoufakis to finance post, Reuters | Galbraith/Varoufakis: Only Syriza can save Greece, NYT, June '13) [via author's blog]

Prasad: India-US econ ties -- A window of opportunity for deeper engagement, Brookings, Jan '15:
India and the US are natural allies but need a better foundation of trust to work together to promote their common interests. The US must help build this trust by delivering on the Obama Admin's commitment to governance reforms that would give India and other emerging markets their due voice in int'l orgs and forums, writes Inst senior fellow / Cornell U prof

Posted on Fri, 23 Jan 15:

Unlock trillions to tackle global inequality and create jobs, panel urges, WEForum, 23 Jan 15:
With the price of oil rock-bottom, now is the perfect opportunity to cut $2 tril. worth of energy subsidies across the world and invest it equally in job creation and education, with a special focus on women, IMF head Lagarde said at a panel debate. Meanwhile, Bank of England governor Carney pointed to the disruptive role of tech and its ability to displace jobs

Jeffrey Sachs: The new macroeconomic realism of the European Central Bank, Project Syndicate, 22 Jan 15:
The ECB has finally launched a policy of quantitative easing (QE). The key question at this stage is whether Germany will give the ECB the freedom of maneuver needed to carry out this monetary expansion with sufficient boldness. But some observers, such as Krugman and Summers, continue to doubt whether QE can really be effective, writes Columbia U Earth Inst dir

If you shouldn't call it the Third World, what should you call it?, Nat'l Public Radio (blog), 4 Jan 15:
Our blog was born in '14, and we had a really hard time coming up with our name. But that naming struggle was nothing compared with figuring out what to call the parts of the world we cover. Third World? Developing world? Global south? Low- and middle-income countries? Every label has its problems -- and, as it turns out, an interesting back story

Posted on Wed, 21 Jan 15:

Business leaders urge structural reforms to spur global growth, World Econ Forum, 21 Jan 15:
Participants at Davos in a session on "The New Growth Context" were told that monetary policy was not enough to encourage growth, as speakers called for structural reforms to the global economy. Others emphasized the importance of infrastructure to global growth, with more infrastructure projects having to be funded by private equity

US overtakes China as CEOs' most important overseas growth market, PwC, 21 Jan 15:
"For the 1st time since we 1st asked the question 5 years ago," says PricewaterhouseCoopers, the US has overtaken China as CEOs' most important overseas growth market. Other emerging markets included in the CEOs' top 10 picks are Brazil, India, Russia and Indonesia. This is part of the key findings of an annual survey of biz leaders from around the world presented in Davos

Raghuram Rajan: Bracing for stagnation, Project Syndicate, 14 Jan 15:
There is a palpable sense of gloom in the developed world, a feeling that growth is unlikely to take off in the foreseeable future. These nations will have to undertake painful structural reforms, figure out how to restructure their promises on debts, social security, and low taxes, and distribute the resulting burden, writes Reserve Bank of India governor, on leave from U Chicago

Posted on Mon, 19 Jan 15:

Richest 1% will own more than all the rest by 2016, Oxfam, 19 Jan 15:
Global wealth is increasingly concentrated in the hands of a small wealthy elite. The combined wealth of the richest 1% will overtake that of the other 99% of people next year unless the current trend of rising inequality is checked, the int'l NGO warned today ahead of the annual meeting in Davos in a research paper, Wealth: Having it all and wanting more

Brunnermeier and James: Making sense of the Swiss shock, Project Syndicate, 17 Jan 15:
In Sep '11, Switzerland pegged its franc to the euro to set a ceiling to its rapid appreciation during the financial crisis. The nation thus became a temporary adjunct member of the euro zone. But on 15 Jan, the Swiss Nat'l Bank suddenly abandoned the peg, write Princeton U Bendheim Ctr Fin dir; and European U Inst prof (SNB chair: Rationale for exch rate action)

Nook & Cranny: Jordan -- Reconciling Swiss minimum exchange rate and current account surplus, Peterson Inst, Oct '13 [PDF, via BIS]:
Let me begin by asking two questions: First, is the Swiss minimum exch rate at odds with the nation's longstanding current account surplus? Second, is such a policy undermining the adjustment of global imbalances? I will argue that, in both cases, the answer is no, says Swiss Nat'l Bank chair

Posted on Fri, 16 Jan 15:

Make 2015 'year of action and political leadership' - Lagarde, IMF Survey Mag, 15 Jan 15:
The IMF chief told a Washington audience the global economy will face this year 3 major policy challenges that will require decisions based on political courage, decisive action, and truly multilateral thinking: boosting growth and employment; achieving more inclusive, shared growth; and attaining more sustainable, balanced growth

Coffers: Swiss franc bombshell - what just happened and why it matters to you, Straits Times/S'pore, 16 Jan 15:
The Swiss central bank stunned investors and traders the world over on Thurs when, with no warning, it abandoned its 3-year-old currency cap of 1.20 francs to the euro. The cap was the crucial part of the Swiss effort to hold down the value of the franc against the ever-weakening euro as nervous investors fled the euro and volatile markets for the safe-haven of Switzerland

Davos meeting to discuss 'new global context', as world faces critical challenges, WEForum, 14 Jan 15:
When the forum convenes from 21-24 Jan, the thematic context consists of 10 global challenges: environment & resource scarcity; employment skills/human capital; gender parity; long-term investing, infrastructure and dev't; food security/agric; int'l trade/investment; future of the Internet; global crime/anti-corruption; social inclusion; and future of financial systems

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