News and Analysis: 2-18 Dec 2015 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

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Posted on Fri, 18 Dec 2015:

Q&A -- Looking back and forward from the Fed's rate increase, Princeton Univ, 17 Dec 15:
The Fed raised interest rates from record lows on 16 Dec, beginning what many expect to be a period of further increases. Fmr Fed vice chair Alan Blinder answered questions about the decision. Q--How will the higher interest rates influence the US and global economies?; and What are the lessons from this long period of very low interest rates?

Focus on work is needed to galvanize progress - Human Development Report, UNDP, 14 Dec 15:
The latest Human Dev't Report 'Work for Human Dev't' examines the links, both positive and negative, between work and human dev't. Its 'human development index' ranks Norway, Australia, Switzerland, Denmark, and Netherlands as top 5, while the bottom 5 are Burundi, Chad, Eritrea, Central African Rep, and Niger

Unrest puts heavy damper on Bethlehem Christmas festivities, AFP, 18 Dec 15 [via Citizen/S.Africa]:
Bethlehem is preparing for the traditional midnight Christmas mass at the Church of the Nativity. However, a wave of violence and protests has deterred many tourists from making the annual pilgrimage to the ancient city in the Israeli-occupied West Bank ('We light our Christmas tree as a message of peace'- Bethlehem mayor, Guardian)

Posted on Wed, 16 Dec 2015:

Larry Summers: What should the Fed do and have done?, Harvard (blog), 15 Dec 15 [scroll down]:
I think on balance it was a mistake to lock in a Dec rate increase, though the argument is closer than in Sep. But that decision has been made. I hope the Fed will not now invest its credibility in signaling further increases until and unless there is much clearer evidence of accelerating inflation, writes Pres Obama's fmr Nat'l Econ Council dir

Why can't developing countries catch up?, St Louis Fed (blog), 15 Dec 15:
Although many middle-income nations have experienced persistent econ growth, their growth rates never surpassed the US growth rate; consequently, these countries have been unable to close their income gaps with the US. Thus, these nations remain 'trapped' at relatively lower income levels compared to developed nations

Arrow and Sanghi: Why economists put health first, Project Syndicate, 14 Dec 15 [via Today's Zaman/Turkey]:
The success of the world's development goals hinges on our ability to reach the poorest and most marginalized populations, who continue to bear the brunt of death and disability worldwide. A natural progression of the status quo will not be enough to reach them, write Nobel Laureate '72; and World Bank lead economist for Kenya

Posted on Mon, 14 Dec 2015:

How the world learned its lesson and got a climate deal, Thomson Reuters Foundation, 13 Dec 15:
It was an agreement born from a fear of failure, delivered by the smoothness of French diplomacy. Six years earlier, nations had bitterly walked away from global climate talks in Copenhagen without a deal. The decision to reassemble in Paris to try again on a global pact on cutting carbon emissions was a gamble

Paris climate deal - Changes in store for developing nations, Int'l Business Times, 12 Dec 15:
Developing countries have been fighting with developed nations for years about who should share most of the burden in curbing emissions. Developing nations have said richer nations have polluted more since the Industrial Revolution, while the richer nations have said developing nations will likely be responsible for future emissions

Kaushik Basu: The poverty line's battle lines, Project Syndicate, 12 Nov 15 [via St Kitts and Nevis Observer]:
Being in the business of measuring poverty is a challenge for the World Bank. If poverty declines, critics accuse us of trying to showcase our success. If it rises, they say we are ensuring that we stay in business. And if it stays the same, they accuse us of trying to avoid these two charges, writes WB chief economist

Posted on Fri, 11 Dec 2015:

Final push for climate deal amid 'optimism', BBC News, 11 Dec 15:
"We are nearly there. I'm optimistic," said French Foreign Min Fabius, who is chairing the summit. Efforts to forge a deal faltered on Fri, forcing the talks to overrun. UN Sec Gen Ban said the negotiations were "most complicated, most difficult." Mr Fabius said that he would present a new version of the draft text on Sat morning

The haze surrounding climate mitigation statistics, OECD (blog), 5 Nov 15:
How have carbon dioxide and greenhouse gas emissions changed since 1990? Three different visuals tell three very different stories. Which perspective offers the most clarity? Equity issues always arise during climate change negotiations. Some countries pollute a lot, others only a little

Low levels of financial literacy around the world, with significant gender gap, George Washington Univ Global Fin Lit Ctr, 18 Nov 15:
The S&P Global FinLit Survey is the world's most comprehensive global measurement of financial literacy, based on interviews with more than 150,000 adults in over 140 nations. Those who collaborated on the survey with S&P were Gallup, World Bank Dev't Research Group, and GWU

Posted on Wed, 9 Dec 2015:

Where does climate adaptation fit into the Paris agreement?-Q&A, World Resources Inst (blog), by Mogelgaard & McGray, 9 Dec 15:
While much of the Paris climate conference is focused on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, climate adaptation is also an important part of the talks, since climate change is already hitting some parts of the world hard, contributing to drought, floods, and other serious climate events, write Inst vulnerability/adaptation assoc; and dir

Lawrence and Stavins: What the World Trade Org can learn from Paris climate talks, Boston Globe, 7 Dec 15 [courtesy Harvard]:
For many years, negotiators at the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change looked longingly at how the WTO was able to negotiate effective int'l agreements. Ironically, the Paris climate talks that are scheduled to conclude on Fri and the WTO negotiations, which will take place next week in Nairobi, lead to the opposite conclusion, write Harvard profs

Fed official urges cautious approach to rate hikes, Stanford Univ, 4 Dec 15:
As the Federal Reserve considers raising interest rates for the 1st time in 7 years, Fed Governor Lael Brainard urged her fellow policy makers to take "a cautious and gradual approach" and explained why interest rates likely will remain low for years to come. She refused to divulge whether she would oppose a rate liftoff

Posted on Mon, 7 Dec 2015:

Claudio Borio: Calm has reigned over financial markets, but it has been an uneasy calm, Bank for International Settlements, 6 Dec 15:
It is not surprising that markets remain unusually sensitive to central banks' every word and deed. It is hard to imagine how the calm could be anything but uneasy. There is a clear tension between the markets' behavior and underlying econ conditions. Markets can remain calm for much longer than we think. Until they no longer can, writes BIS monetary/econ dept head

US and Europe are mostly to blame for the climate conundrum, MIT Technology Review, 2 Dec 15:
Fast-growing economies like China, India, Brazil, and Indonesia are now among the world's biggest yearly emitters and will drive most future emissions growth. But from a cumulative standpoint, wealthier nations are way out in front and are responsible for most of the carbon dioxide humans have added to the atmosphere

William Nordhaus: 'Climate clubs' to overcome 'free-riding' in int'l agreements, Issues in Science/Technology, 3rd qtr '15:
The Kyoto Protocol ran aground because of the tendency of nations to free-ride on the efforts of others for global public goods. And climate change is an extreme example of a global public good, writes author of The Climate Casino: Risk, uncertainty, and economics for a warming world (2013) ('Climate club’ could induce global change, NYT) [via Taipei Times]

Posted on Fri, 4 Dec 2015:

Olson and Wessel: On financial stability -- We're safer, but are we safe enough?, Brookings (blog), 19 Nov 15:
The financial system "feels substantially safer than a decade ago," Fed's Daniel Tarullo said at a recent Inst event. But, he added, "safer does not necessarily mean safe enough. The moment when you tell yourself: 'Hey, we're safe enough' is when the problems are going to start to arise," write Hutchins Ctr Fiscal/Monetary Policy analyst; and dir

Shedding fresh light on China's investment choices in Africa, Conversation (Africa), by Tang & Chen, 26 Aug 15 [via AllArica]:
China's econ engagement in Africa tends to elicit controversy. Many deals are accompanied by Western headlines such as "China in Africa: Investment or Exploitation?" Yet in recent opinion polls China scored higher in popularity among Africans than anywhere else in the world, acc. to Pew surveys, write IMF and Dallas Fed economists

Wagner and Weitzman: How does climate stack up against other worst-case scenarios?, Univ Minnesota's Ensia, 1 Apr 15:
Climate isn't the only catastrophe threatening the planet. But if there's more than one existential risk facing the planet, we ought to consider and address each in turn. That logic has its limits. If catastrophe policies were to eat up all the resources we have, we'd clearly have to pick and choose, write Envir Defense Fund lead economist; and Harvard prof

Posted on Wed, 2 Dec 2015:

Paris climate talks -- For the poorest nations, questions of compensation, Yale Univ (blog), by F Pearce, 30 Nov 15:
When nations most vulnerable to climate change took to the stage on the 1st day, it was no surprise to see an insurance company CEO on hand to offer his expertise. And he was welcome. For insurance is top of the shopping list for poor, vulnerable nations keen to push developed nations to indemnify them against disasters they have done little to cause

Coffers: 10 investment themes for emerging markets in 2016, CNBC, 2 Dec 15:
The good news: A turbulent year for emerging markets that saw assets from Jakarta to Johannesburg get walloped is coming to an end. The bad news: Prospects for 2016 do not look very appealing either. An investment bank has listed 10 key themes for fixed-income assets in emerging markets

Top researchers debate unconventional monetary policies, IMF Survey Mag, by M Obstfeld & G Adler, 20 Nov 15:
At a recent conference, fmr Fed chair Bernanke downplayed concerns expressed by some emerging markets about "currency wars". In his view, "currency war" flags mostly reflect the frustration of open emerging markets confronted with the trilemma -- that is, the difficulty of seeking monetary independence while targeting the exchange rate

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