News and Analysis: 06-15 Jan 2016 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

Based in: Manila, Philippines

Posted on Fri, 15 Jan 2016:

Jakarta attacks confirm regional fears over IS - analysts, AFP, 14 Jan 16 [via Business Times/Spore]:
A "Paris-style" suicide strike on the Indonesian capital Thu confirmed Southeast Asian govts' worst fears -- that citizens returning from fighting alongside the Islamic State group in the Mideast could launch attacks at home. Although the toll was much lower, social media erupted with the hashtag #KamiTidatTakut (We are not afraid)

Digital revolution needs offline help to realize its potential, World Bank, 13 Jan 16:
More people around the world have access to mobile phones today than to electricity or water. Does this mean the digital revolution has truly dawned? "We share the optimism of Silicon Valley when it comes to the transformative potential of digital technologies. But not the expedient view that the benefits are both assured and automatic," says the 2016 World Development Report

Christian Odendahl: Competitiveness revisited, Berlin Policy Journal, Jan/Feb '16:
For firms, competitiveness is relatively simple to explain: firms compete with each other, in part on price, in part on quality and innovation. The winners of this competition make a profit, while the losers rethink their strategy - or go out of business. For nations, almost none of this applies, writes Ctr European Reform (Lond) chief economist

Posted on Wed, 13 Jan 2016:

Global slowdown to continue in 2016 too -- Nobel Laureate Stiglitz, Econ Times/India, 12 Jan 15:
The tumultuous start to 2016 supports the belief that there is no reason to expect the global economy to be any stronger this year than in '15, said Joseph Stiglitz. In a conference call with analysts, he spoke on a range of issues confronting the world economy and identified lack of demand as the major problem coupled with the slow deceleration in China

A leading economist's 10-point plan to restore US economic growth, Vox, by M Yglesias, 5 Jan 16:
Most of the top US economists are gathered this week in San Francisco for the annual Amer Econ Assn meet. And from what I'm hearing, the buzz is all about Northwestern's Robert Gordon, who's been arguing for some time that US econ growth is over. His book, The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The US standard of living since the Civil War, will be out on 12 Jan

A warning on China seems prescient, NY Times, by A Sorkin, 24 Aug 15 [PDF, courtesy Harvard]:
"In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could." Harvard's Kenneth Rogoff accurately predicted the eurozone debt crisis and for years has been telling anyone who would listen that China posed the next big threat to the global economy. He is starting to look right, again

Posted on Mon, 11 Jan 2015:

Paul Krugman: When China stumbles, New York Times, 8 Jan 16 [via Today Online/Spore]:
So, will China's problems cause a global crisis? The good news is that the numbers, as I read them, don't seem big enough. The bad news is that I could be wrong, because global contagion often seems to end up being worse than hard numbers say it should, writes Nobel Laureate '08 / NYT op-ed columnist

Where's the inflation, Mr Shin (econ adviser of the BIS)?, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 27 Dec 15 [courtesy BIS]:
Hyun Song Shin, Research Head of the Bank for Intl Settlements in Basel, Switz., explains why prices are not rising despite the glut of money and why the situation is nonetheless dangerous. Q--Inflation is only 0.2% in Europe and 0.5% in the US, although the central banks are doing everything in their power to drive it up to 2%. What's going wrong?

Gary Hufbauer: The WTO lives on, the Doha Round does not, Vox, 21 Dec 15 [courtesy Peterson Inst]:
Walking dead are normally confined to Hollywood, but the World Trade Org Ministerial Declaration, published on 19 Dec, added the Doha Development Agenda (DDA) to this ghoulish cast. But the more numerous developing countries insist that the DDA still charts the way for WTO negotiation, writes Inst senior fellow

Posted on Fri, 08 Jan 2016:

David Dollar: Anchor aweigh? China's currency devaluation and the global economy, Brookings Inst (blog), 6 Jan 16:
China devalued its currency to a 5-year low against the US dollar on Wed., sending global stock markets tumbling. The devaluation so far has been minor, from an exchange rate of 6.20 to the dollar last summer to 6.55 now. So, why are markets so jittery?, asks Inst senior fellow / fmr US Treas econ emissary to China

Kevin Carmichael: Saudi Arabia no longer is the forgotten member of the G20, Ctr Intl Governance Innov (blog), 7 Jan 16:
Global econ surprises in 2015? There were a few. For me, the biggest was Saudi Arabia's willingness to forego hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue to cripple its emerging competitors in the global oil market. One of the quieter members of the G20 reminded everyone why it has a seat at the big table, writes Ctr senior fellow / fmr Globe and Mail journalist

Pioneering program helps households climb out, and stay out, of extreme poverty, London School of Economics, 9 Dec 15:
A program pioneered by development organization BRAC, which aims to help households escape extreme poverty by supporting women to set up their own small businesses, not only works but its benefits increase in the long term, acc. to an evaluation led by researchers at the Intl Growth Center based at LSE

Posted on Wed, 06 Jan 2016:

The global economy in 2016 -- Q&A with IMF chief economist Maury Obstfeld, IMF Survey Mag, 4 Jan 16:
Q--What is your assessment of how the global economy turned out in 2015? What went better than you anticipated, and what does not look so good?; What are the other key issues we need to pay attention to in 2016?; and Will 2016 be the year of Emerging Markets? Are capital outflows from emerging markets a growing worry?

Bremmer and Kupchan: Top risks 2016, Eurasia Group, 4 Jan 16:
The Mideast is the most vulnerable to a geopolitical leadership vacuum and is heading toward conflagration. There are 6 failed states across the broader region (Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Mali, Syria, and Yemen) and more refugees than ever recorded. Oil economies are under strain. All of this will get worse in 2016, write Group pres; and chair

Tyson and Mendonca: Why Chan and Zuckerberg are modern altruists, Project Syndicate, 30 Dec 15 [via WEForum (blog)]:
When Facebook's founder and his wife recently announced their plan to devote some $45 bil. in Facebook shares toward making the world a better place, some critics wrote off the move as a public-relations ploy, write Pres Clinton's Council Econ Advisers chair; and Presidio Inst senior fellow

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