News and Analysis: 18-29 May 2015 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

Based in: Manila, Philippines

Posted on Fri, 29 May 2015:

A chain unbroken, Finance & Development, by M Ruotanen, G Esposito and P Nestorova, June-Aug '15:
Outlawed almost everywhere, slavery lives on in the dark recesses of the global economy. Economics' law of supply and demand drives human traffickers. Although there is no established pattern, generally victims are sent to destinations where the demand for low- or no-cost labor or sexual exploitation is higher. Victims are usually lured into the trafficking ring through deception and the promise of a better life, write Council of Europe's dir, dept head, and exec secy

New growth projections predict the rise of India, East Africa and fall of oil economies, Harvard Univ, 7 May 15:
South Asia and East Africa top the list, while oil-driven economies face the sharpest fall in new growth projections and rankings of productive dynamism for 128 countries, as presented by researchers at the Harvard Ctr International Development. They also predict important reversals among growth leaders, with India expected to overtake China. They use their own measure of economic complexity that captures the productive capabilities embedded in a country's exports

Global officials spar over interest rate policy, USA Today, 15 Apr 15:
Three heavyweights of global monetary policy offered starkly different visions of how central bankers of the future should stimulate struggling economies or head off inflation. The disparate views of fmr South African Reserve Bank head Gill Marcus, Stanford econ prof John Taylor, and fmr Fed Reserve chair Ben Bernanke suggest monetary policy debates in the future may look a lot like the present

Posted on Wed, 27 May 2015:

Ahead of G7, US warns Europe not to miscalculate over Greece, Reuters, 27 May 15 [via Times of India]:
US Treasury Secy Jack Lew issued the warning on Wed. in a stopover in London on his way to a meeting of Group of Seven finance ministers in Dresden, Germany. Greece's gov't has said it does not have enough money to repay loans from the IMF without further help from Europe. While most Greek debt is now owned by public institutions rather than commercial banks -- reducing the risk of a banking run in case of default -- Lew urged against complacency

Should Obama's Global Development Council go rogue?, Ctr Global Dev't (blog), by J Leo, 18 May 15:
Last week, Pres Obama's Global Development Council released a 2nd report calling for bold, as well as incremental, reforms to "make US development efforts more catalytic and innovative." This is a high-powered group of outside thinkers and doers, and their recommendations are excellent. At this point, however, it's unclear whether the White House will act on their advice

Tech clusters need the right people, Credit Suisse, 31 Mar 15:
Fledgling clusters need a core to orient around. One theory suggests that 1st-tier companies -- established MNCs and market leaders -- are needed to create this gravitational pull. To this end, some govts offer financial incentives to firms to relocate in their regions, such as tax breaks and subsidies. But is this enough to turn an emerging tech cluster into the next Silicon Valley? Beyond incentives and inducements, aspiring regions must start with the basics. A look at 3 emerging technology clusters

Posted on Mon, 25 May 2015:

A 'graduation' from poverty, MIT News, 14 May 15:
An anti-poverty program tested extensively on 3 continents has produced sustained gains in individuals' income, wealth, and well-being, according to a new study co-authored by economist Abhijit Banerjee. The 'Graduation' program was targeted at substantial groups of very poor citizens in Ethiopia, Ghana, Honduras, Peru, India and Pakistan

Tyson and Woetzel: The growth conundrum, Project Syndicate, 31 Mar 15 [via McKinsey]:
The world faces a major dilemma. While rapid econ growth, such as that realized over the past 50 years, is critical to support dev't, we now also know that it can have serious adverse consequences, esp. for the environment. How can we balance the imperatives of growth with the need to ensure sustainability?, ask Pres Clinton's Council Econ Advisers chair; and McK Global Inst dir

Nook & Cranny: John Nash and the Nobel Prize, PBS, Dec '02:
According to Aristotle, the best tragedies are conflicts between a hero and his destiny. They contain reversals of fortune, moments of recognition, and, ultimately, a catharsis. John Nash's life -- his early brilliance, his struggle with mental illness, and his slow, willful recovery -- is definitely the stuff of Greek tragedy (Dixit on game theory and Nash)

Posted on Fri, 22 May 2015:

Why one top economist thinks Obama's trade deal is worth passing, Vox, 14 May 15:
Adam Posen, Peterson Inst pres, is now on the other side of a debate splitting liberals from many in the econ community. He's a strong supporter of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal -- the one that Elizabeth Warren and the AFL-CIO are going to war with Pres Obama over. We asked him to make the case for TPP, and to explain what he thinks the critics are getting wrong

Sachs, Johnson & Sachs: Why 'fast track' is a dangerous gift to corporate lobbies, HuffPost, 19 May 15:
The Obama admin is now on track to get 'fast track' legislation through the Senate, heading towards a close vote in the House. The end goal is to conclude 2 major free trade pacts with Asia and Europe. The House Democrats are right to withhold their support until key provisions are dropped, write Earth Inst dir; Sustainable Invest.Ctr invest.law head; and Ctr head, all at Columbia

City winners and city beginners, Jones Lang LaSalle, 6 May 15: :
Istanbul is consistently the most improved city since 2010 acc. to new research released by global real estate firm JLL in partnership with The Business of Cities Group. The report also identifies NY, London, Singapore, Paris and HK as the top 5 performing cities across 6 leading all-round indices (Singapore leads Asia Pac in 'Business of Cities' ranking | Global Top 30 cities)

Posted on Wed, 20 May 2015:

New index reveals unexpected leaders in water, sanitation progress, Univ North Carolina, 8 May 15:
The new water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) Performance Index is a comparison of country performance in realizing universal WASH. The index assesses performance in the following: water access, water equity, sanitation access, and sanitation equity. The top 5 performing nations are El Salvador, Niger, Egypt, Maldives, and Pakistan

Taylor on Bernanke: Monetary rules work better than 'constrained discretion', WSJ, 2 May 15 [via Hoover Inst]:
Some people say that I want to chain the Fed to an algebraic formula, but that is not so. Having a rules-based policy does not mean you mechanically follow a formula. It means you have an explicit strategy for setting the instruments, writes Pres GW Bush's Treasury undersecy (Bernanke says "The Fed has a rule." But it's only "constrained discretion" and it hasn't worked)

How to measure the black market, St Louis Fed (blog), 18 May 15:
The informal economy, also known as the underground economy or the black market, makes up a significant portion of the economy. It is estimated to be as much as 36% of the gross domestic product of developing nations. However, measuring the informal economy is quite difficult. Ultimately, the approach used to measure depends on the specific question being asked

Posted on Mon, 18 May 2015:

A partnership to quench the world's thirst, Milken Inst, Apr '15 [PDF]:
Being a California resident, I know that drought is undeniably a real issue. But for nearly a billion people on the planet, the water crisis is happening now. Access to safe water and sanitation makes a life-changing -- and often lifesaving -- difference, says Matt Damon, Water.org co-founder, of his partnership with co-founder Gary White and philanthropist Stephen Cloobeck

Paul Romer: 'Math-iness' in the theory of economic growth, NYU (blog), 15 May 15:
Politics does not lead to a broadly shared consensus. It has to yield a decision, whether or not a consensus prevails. Science is a process that does lead to a broadly shared consensus. Economists usually stick to science. For the last two decades, growth theory has made no scientific progress toward a consensus, writes NYU prof ('Math-iness' -- A guide for the perplexed, Digitopoly)

Nook & Cranny: Terry Anderson -- Adaptation key to dealing with climate change, USA Today, 4 June 14:
Even if all the mitigation were successful at reducing carbon emissions, however, it will have no appreciable effect on global temperatures. Such pessimism about the prospects of mitigation may explain why the 2014 UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report focuses more on adaptation than mitigation, writes Hoover Inst senior fellow / Property & Environ Res Ctr pres

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