News and Analysis: 1-15 June 2015 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

Based in: Manila, Philippines

Posted on Mon, 15 June 2015:

Battle over fast-track trade authority resumes this week in House, Reuters, 15 June 15 [via Insurance Jl]:
A raging battle over Pres Obama's request for 'fast-track' authority central for a trade pact with Asia resumes in the House of Representatives. House Democrats disregarded Obama's personal pleas and teamed up with Republicans, for different reasons, to overwhelmingly defeat a program that helps US workers who lose their jobs as a result of trade deals. Supporters were heartened, however, when the House narrowly approved a separate measure to give Obama 'fast-track' authority

Dobbs, Manyika, and Woetzel: How do you govern a disrupted world?, McKinsey, May '15:
The world not only feels different. The data tell us it is different. Our intuitions formed while the world economy was experiencing a uniquely benign period, often termed the 'Great Moderation'. But that has gone. What we are now seeing is no ordinary disruption but the new facts of business life -- facts that require execs and leaders to reset their operating assumptions and management intuition, write authors of No Ordinary Disruption: The four forces breaking all the trends (2015)

The economics of change, Univ Calif Berkeley News, 15 May 15:
Through fieldwork in Africa and India, economist Edward Miguel has studied the technological and social forces that hold back economic development, education and health. Miguel is also concerned about what many see as the 'credibility problem' of social science research. Because the research questions can be so immediate and contentious -- the effect of wages on employment levels, for example -- social scientists are at risk of reading their own prejudices into their data

Posted on Fri, 12 June 2015:

IMF, EU pour cold water on Greek debt deal hopes, AFP, June 12 [via Capital FM/Kenya):
Greece's creditors piled pressure on cash-strapped Athens on Thu. as the IMF pulled its team out of talks and the EU warned Athens to stop gambling with the possibility of default and a messy exit from the euro zone. The fund said its Greek talks team had returned to Washington from Brussels and that the "ball is very much in Greece's court right now" -- although it added that "the IMF never leaves the table and remains engaged"

How emerging markets can finally arrive, strategy+business, by J Jullens, 11 May 15:
Today, the global economy still consists of only 30 or so high-income countries, roughly the same number of middle-income countries, and a very long tail of 140 or so low-income countries. This last group is still finding it difficult to industrialize, and at least 34 of these countries remain fragile and vulnerable to outright collapse. This circumstance doesn't really jibe with orthodox econ theory, writes Strategy& consulting partner in Shanghai

Rosabeth Moss Kanter: Why American airports are so outdated compared to the rest of the world, Business Insider, 15 May 15:
Being able to fly with fewer delays won't be enough if there are also major delays in getting to and from airports with shabby facilities. If you've taken a train directly to an airport, it was probably in another country. US institutions operate in silos too often, while airlines fly above them all. If the US public demands an upgraded national air strategy, it can be done, writes Harvard prof (Skytrax: The World's Top 100 airports - 2015)

Posted on Wed, 10 June 2015:

Joseph Stiglitz: Europe's last act?, Project Syndicate, 8 June 15 [via Social-Europe.eu]:
Some in Europe, esp. in Germany, seem nonchalant about a Greek exit from the eurozone. The market has, they claim, already 'priced in' such a rupture. Some even suggest that it would be good for the monetary union. I believe that such views significantly underestimate both the current and future risks involved. A similar degree of complacency was evident in the US before the collapse of Lehman Brothers in Sep '08, writes Nobel Laureate '01 / Columbia U prof

Liveable is bankable - The big business of city rankings, Credit Suisse, 15 Apr 15:
Choose the city where you live? Aside from a privileged few, most of us take what we can get. Picking 'the best place to live' started as sport; now it's an industry. With ever more market segmentation, even the developing world is involved. Nonetheless, there is a surging market for city rankings. And yes, rankings make a difference

From structural adjustment to structural change - Why jobs are the key to development, World Bank (blog), by D Merotto, 4 Mar 15:
My personal journey as a development economist began when all the talk was of structural adjustment. It has brought me from that to structural transformation. Now, adopting a jobs lens to diagnosing policy priorities helps us to refocus growth priorities on the bottom 40% of income earners. These are people whose livelihoods rely heavily on their incomes from labor, writes WB lead economist for jobs cross-cutting solution area

Posted on Mon, 8 June 2015:

Israelis stand to gain $120 bil., Palestinians $50 bil. in two-state solution, Rand, 8 June 15:
The Israeli economy stands to benefit over the next decade in a two-state solution, a possible resolution of the long-standing conflict between Israelis and Palestinians in which the Palestinians gain independence and relations between the Israelis and their neighbors normalize, acc. to a new study. Palestinians would also benefit, though a return to violence, by contrast, would have profoundly negative econ consequences for both

Amartya Sen: The economic consequences of austerity, New Statesman, 4 June 15:
If the point of view that Niall Ferguson airs is basically right (and that reading is shared by several other commentators as well), the imposed austerity we are going through is not a useless nightmare (as Keynes's analysis would make us believe), but more like a strenuous workout for a healthier future, as the champions of austerity have always claimed. Is that the real story now?, asks Nobel Laureate '98 / Harvard prof

M Boldrin and D Levine: Unintuitive economics - Is the patent system necessary for innovation?, Milken Inst, 2nd qtr '15 [PDF]:
The need to protect innovation with patents, which used to be holy writ for economists, is still seen as a cornerstone of capitalism by many lawyers and business analysts. But that cornerstone is weaker than you may think. We challenge the conventional wisdom that the current patent system is vital to sustaining econ growth - or, for that matter, the idea that it does more good than harm, write Washington U (St.Louis) profs

Posted on Fri, 5 June 2015:

Christine Lagarde: US economy returning to growth, but with pockets of vulnerability, IMF (blog), 4 June 15:
We see inflation pressures as muted. Long-term unemployment and high levels of part-time work both point to remaining employment slack. Wage indicators on the whole have shown only tepid growth. We think there is a case for waiting to raise rates until there are more tangible signs of wage or price inflation than are currently evident. Even after the 1st rate increase, a gradual rise in the federal funds rate will likely be appropriate, writes IMF managing dir

Ripples from the water-energy-food nexus, OECD Observer, by N Ebrahim, Apr '15:
In Rule of Experts, Timothy Mitchell tells how in 1942, a malaria epidemic in Egypt was caused by a perfect storm of interactions between rivers, dams, fertilizers, food webs, and the influences of the Second World War. It began with the building of dams and storage reservoirs at Aswan by the Nile. The engineers building the dam could never have imagined the ripple effects their work created. But today, we know better

Ha-Joon Chang: Ignore the 'pro-business' rhetoric; a pro-rich government is anti-business, Guardian, 3 Mar 15:
Politicians who are serious about the nation's prosperity and its citizens' welfare need to be 'pro-business'. But what does it mean to be pro-business? We should not confuse a pro-business stance with a pro-rich stance. Not all rich people are business people, or 'wealth creators'. Some of them have simply inherited vast sums of money, while others have created wealth elsewhere and are simply enjoying their lives now, writes Cambridge U reader (Economics for all, OECD Observer)

Posted on Wed, 3 June 2015:

Greece threatens to skip IMF payment; Tsipras set for EU talks, Reuters, 3 June 15 [self-updating link]:
Greece is due to pay back the IMF 300 mil. euros ($335 mil.) of loans on 5 June, but the spokesman for Syriza's lawmakers said on Wed. it would miss this deadline if there was no prospect of an aid-for-reforms deal with its creditors. PM Tsipras visits Brussels later on Wed. to see senior European officials, where he is expected to hear the terms of the plan drawn up this week at a meeting of top leaders, incl German Chancellor Angela Merkel

Coffee/Tea Room: Can FIFA become a role model for sustainable development?, Brookings (blog), by L Sibilski, 22 May 15:
The FIFA World Cup is the biggest single-sport competition in the world. The '06 World Cup in Germany was a game changer in FIFA's approach to environmental impact, sustainability, and its tournaments. This new charge required an adapted approach to FIFA's organization of the World Cup. FIFA is fully aware that organizing an international sporting event of such scale can have a detrimental impact on the environment locally and globally, writes World Bank consultant

Barry Eichengreen: Wanted - a new economics to fit the facts, Project Syndicate, 15 May 15 [via Guardian]:
Some argue that the solution is to return to the simpler economic models of the past, which yielded policy prescriptions that evidently sufficed to prevent comparable crises. Others insist that, on the contrary, effective policies today require increasingly complex models that can more fully capture the chaotic dynamics of the 21st-century economy. This debate misses the point, writes U Calif Berkeley prof

Posted on Mon, 1 June 2015:

A new global divide - More than half of world's pop. lives in nations falling behind in sustainable dev't, Boston CG, 28 May 15:
More than half of the global pop. lives in nations that are weak and falling behind the rest of the world across 4 key sustainability measures: income equality, civil society, governance, and environment. The report is based on the latest study of global econ growth trends using the Sustainable Economic Development Assessment. The analysis measures the relative well-being of 149 nations

A guide on the evolving trend of impact investing, Boston Globe, 15 Apr 15:
Investing was for doing well. Charity was for doing good. That was the traditional view of making money: that financial returns and personal values were incompatible. But that wall has crumbled as a new field of investments evolves, aimed not just at generating profits but producing social benefits. The practice goes by many names -- socially responsible investing, sustainable investing, impact investing

Nook & Cranny: Wanted - bubble detector, Kiplinger, Apr '14:
Imagine if somehow we could rig up a bubble detector: something to tell investors when stock prices had reached unsustainable levels. A Calif Inst Tech prof thinks he might be onto such a detector. Colin Camerer is a genius, which isn't so unusual on the Caltech campus. But Camerer is certified, having been awarded a so-called genius grant from the MacArthur Found. (Emotions count - The brain chemistry behind investing, CNBC, Jan '15)

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