News and Analysis: 02-16 Mar 2016 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

Based in: Manila, Philippines

Posted on Wed, 16 Mar 2016:

Are you happier now than in years past?, Columbia Univ (blog), by K Lee, 16 Mar 16:
"Imagine a ladder with steps numbered from zero at the bottom to 10 at the top. The top represents the best possible life for you, and the bottom represents the worst possible life. On which step of the ladder would you say you feel you stand?" (World Happiness Report 2016 ranks happiest nations)

Ngaire Woods: Maybe globalization isn't the answer after all, Project Syndicate, 11 Mar 16 [via Gulf News/UAE]:
Despite widespread uncertainty, the stalling of global cooperation may be less risky today than it was even a decade ago. The key factor in this context has been widespread recognition of the risks inherent in economic globalization, writes Oxford U Sch Govt dean

Nook & Cranny: Bank hackers steal millions via malware, NYT, 8 Mar 15 [via CEO Magazine/Uganda]:
In some cases, transfers were run through the system operated by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, or Swift, which banks use to transfer funds across borders (The great bank robbery - Carbanak cybergang steals $1 bil. from 100 financial institutions worldwide, Kaspersky Lab)

Posted on Mon, 14 Mar 2016:

Emerging-market debtor nations likely to follow Fed rate boosts, Dallas Fed Econ Letter, by S Davis, 9 Mar 16 [PDF]:
Mexico's central bank rescheduled its monetary policy meetings in 2015 to occur immediately after those of the Fed. Mexican policy makers wanted to be in a position to increase their own extraordinarily low rates as soon as their US counterpart acted, writes senior res economist

Competitive cities create jobs and drive growth, Straits Times/S'pore, by Gonzalez and Ijjasz-Vasquez, 5 Mar 16 [courtesy World Bank]:
East Asian growth is built by cities, centered on the emergence of dominant regions, built on agglomeration economies, like the Mekong Delta and the Bangkok metro area, as well as China's Pearl River Delta, write WB senior dirs for trade/competitiveness; and urban/rural & resilience

Glenn Hubbard: Why does growth stop?, Columbia Univ, 12 Feb 16:
A whole subfield of economics has grown up around the nearly single-minded pursuit of getting growth to start, 1st in Europe and then across the developing world. As growth has faltered since '08, just as critical may be what causes it to stop, writes Pres GW Bush's Council Econ Advisers chair

Posted on Fri, 11 Mar 2016:

Kenneth Rogoff: Is fear controlling global markets?, Project Syndicate, 11 Mar 16 [via WEForum (blog)]:
Once the recent market drop hit 20%, many people wondered how much worse it could get - and whether fears of a new recession could become a self-fulfilling prophecy, writes 2011 winner of Deutsche Bank Prize in financial economics

McCauley and Shu: Dollars and renminbi flowed out of China, Bank for Intl Settlements (Qtrly Rev text box), 6 Mar 16:
Persistent private capital outflows from China since June 2014 have led to 2 different narratives. One tells a story of investors selling mainland assets en masse; the other of Chinese firms paying down their dollar debt, write BIS senior adviser; and senior economist

How "machine learning" can shed light on global poverty, Stanford Univ, 25 Feb 16 [via Futurity]:
One of the biggest challenges in fighting poverty is the lack of reliable info. In order to aid the poor, agencies need to map the dimensions of distressed areas and identify the absence or presence of infrastructure and services. But in many of the poorest areas of the world such info is rare

Posted on Wed, 09 Mar 2016:

With little fanfare, the 2016 campaign is producing a serious tax debate, WSJ, by D Wessel, 29 Feb 16 [courtesy Brookings]:
Beneath the coarseness of the campaign and the no-longer-surprising surge of candidates giving voice to the frustration of millions lurks a surprisingly serious debate about bold changes to the US tax code (Should the US adopt a value-added tax?--Two views) [via Y Fin]

Have the BRICs hit a wall? The next emerging markets, Univ Pennsylvania, 12 Jan 16:
Lauder Inst dir Mauro Guillen divides the potential new markets into 3 waves. His likely candidates for the 1st wave are Vietnam, Philippines and Bangladesh. The 2nd wave will probably consist of sub-Saharan African nations - esp. Nigeria and Kenya

To get the right policy, ask the right question, Alliance for Useful Evidence (blog), by Pande, Moore & Dodge, 14 Oct 15:
Policy makers are under pressure from higher-ups in their ministries who, in turn, face pressure from officials with an eye on the upcoming election. This creates demand for short project cycles, write Evidence for Policy Design co-dir; India dir; and data analytics lead

Posted on Mon, 07 Mar 2016:

Michael Boskin: The US election and the global economy, Project Syndicate, 29 Feb 16 [via Japan Times]:
Big changes are underway in the US, as the nation gears up to elect a pres, one-third of the Senate, and the entire House of Representatives. The outcome will have profound consequences for US econ policy, and thus for the global economy, writes Pres HW Bush's Council Econ Advisers chair

Q&A with author of "Global Inequality: A new approach for the Age of Globalization", Quartz, 1 Mar 16:
Branko Milanovic, fmr chief economist of the World Bank's Res Dept, looks at the big picture. Set to be published next month, Milanovic's new book, Global Inequality, goes well beyond the narrative of rising inequality captured by French economist Thomas Piketty

The truth about banks, Finance & Development, by Kumhof and Jakab, Mar-May '16:
Problems in the banking sector played a critical role in triggering and prolonging the two greatest economic crises of the past 100 years: the Great Depression of 1929 and the Great Recession of 2008

Posted on Fri, 04 Mar 2016:

Norway says made first withdrawal from oil fund in January, Reuters, 3 Mar 16:
With its economy weakening, Norway's govt made its 1st withdrawal from its $826 bil. sovereign wealth fund (SWF) in Jan, 20 years after 1st depositing cash (SWFs may sell $404 bil. of equities, Bloomberg | Norway oil fund to target green energy, infrastructure if allowed) (courtesy Norwea)

The "boys" who got to remake an economy, Slate, 12 Jan 16:
"Chile was not a jewel in '95, but it's a jewel today," the economist Arnold Harberger says in the docu Chicago Boys. He taught at the UChicago with Milton Friedman, and was a father figure to the "boys"- a group of Chilean economists who studied there (Chicago Economics through the years, UChic)

Gregory Mankiw: A better way to grade presidents, NYT, 31 Jan 16 [PDF, courtesy Harvard]:
When unemployment falls, inflation is low and the economy grows briskly, we often give the pres high marks. But is that really how the economic record of a pres should be judged? As we pick the next pres, this question is useful to ponder, writes Pres GW Bush's Council Econ Advisers chair

Posted on Wed, 02 Mar 2016:

Mohamed El Erian: The G20 misses its 'Sputnik moment', Bloomberg, 2 Mar 16 [via Daily Reoublic]:
It was hoped, though not expected, that this increased awareness of danger would jolt policy makers, as was the case in 1957, when the Soviet Union's successful launch of Sputnik shocked the US, writes Pres Obama's Global Devt Council chair

Bruce Greenwald: Is the future local?, Columbia Univ, 12 Feb 16:
In 1944, with the close of the WW II in sight, Paul Samuelson, the 1st American Nobel economist, foresaw disaster. The Depression, he warned, was coming back. Instead, the US entered one of the longest periods of econ expansion, writes Ctr Graham & Dodd Investing dir

Pankaj Ghemawat: India is far from a sweet spot in global connectedness, Thinkers/India, 14 May 15 [via Business Insider]:
I believe India does have tremendous cultural riches and probably more untapped business potential than in any other single country in the world. But until we open up with confidence to each other and to the world, we will continue to fall too far short of our potential, writes NYU and IESE (Spain) prof

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