News and Analysis: 18 Mar--13 Apr 2016 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

Based in: Manila, Philippines

Posted on Wed, 13 Apr 2016:

Maurice Obstfeld: Global growth - Too slow for too long, IMF (blog), 12 Apr 16:
Global growth continues, but at an increasingly disappointing pace that leaves the world economy.more exposed to negative risks. The current diminished outlook calls for an immediate, proactive response. There is no longer much room for error, writes IMF chief economist / Pres Obama's Council Econ Advisers fmr member

3 questions on Brazil's crisis moment, MIT News, 22 Mar 16:
Brazil has been much touted as a fast-rising 'BRIC' country (Brazil, Russia, India, China).. But a sprawling political corruption scandal and econ turmoil have cast shadows on this once-sunny landscape.:The MIT-Brazil prog dir talks about the progress and setbacks Brazil is experiencing

S Levin and A Lo: A new approach to financial regulation, National Academy of Sciences Proceedings, 13 Oct 15 [PDF, courtesy MIT]:
We propose that the financial system has crossed a threshold of complexity where the system is evolving faster than regulators and regulations can keep pace. The challenge of complexity is not unique to finance but applies as well to other human endeavors, write Princeton BioComplexity Ctr; and MIT Fin Engineering Lab profs

Posted on Mon, 11 Apr 2016:

East Asia Pacific growth remains resilient in face of challenging global environment, World Bank, 10 Apr 16:
Growth in developing East Asia Pacific has remained resilient and is expected to ease only modestly, says the latest "Economic Update". The region faces a challenging backdrop: slow growth in mature nations, slowdown across emerging markets, low commodity prices, and volatile global financial markets

Barry Eichengreen: The case for a grand bargain, Finanz und Wirtschaft/ Switzerland, 8 Apr 16:
The current malaise of stagnation is a global phenomenon. And individual efforts to defeat it by central banks and govts are clearly not working. Skeptics will say that I am a dreamer for imagining this grand bargain. But the alternative to it is an ongoing econ nightmare, writes U Calif-Berkeley prof

Nook & Cranny: Risky business - Why money markets ignore the rules, New Scientist, 11 Mar 15 [courtesy Columbia Univ}:
Physicist turned Goldman Sachs analyst Emanuel Derman explains why it is so difficult to write equations for stock markets or interest rates. Q-Are there laws of financial markets in the same way there are laws of physics?:Is there any predictive model of markets that investors can rely on?

Posted on Fri, 08 Apr 2016:

Trade is not "us against them", Ctr Global Devt, by K Elliott, 29 Mar 16:
There has been an unfortunate tendency in this year's US pres'l campaign about trade policy. The rhetoric pitting poor people in the US against even poorer people elsewhere helps neither, writes Ctr senior fellow

Boardroom/C-suite: Von Clausewitz on war - Six lessons for the modern strategist, by W Pietersen, Columbia Univ, 12 Feb 16:
Business firms must have a winning strategy to achieve competitive advantage and the ability to renew that strategy as the environment shifts. That is precisely the challenge the military has faced through the ages, writes Columbia U prof

The science of economics, California Inst Technology, 9 Nov 15:
When this economist talks about the work that he and his colleagues do in studying socioeconomic systems -- everything from the effect of inequality on tax rates to the best way for the UN to auction off pallets of natural rubber in Vietnam -- he looks to astronomy for an appropriate metaphor

Posted on Wed, 06 Apr 2016:

'The Hidden Wealth Of Nations' author explores world of offshore tax havens, Natl Public Radio, 4 Apr 16:
NPR talks with author Gabriel Zucman, U Calif-Berkeley, about the leaked Panama papers and what they say about the practice of hiding money offshore worldwide. He estimates that up to 8% of the world's financial wealth is hidden away (The true cost of hidden money, NYT) [PDF, courtesy Zucman's site]

Is infrastructure investment the answer to sluggish economic growth?, Brookings (blog), by Bhattasali and Thomas, 5 Apr 16:
The crucial question is whether the push for more infrastructure will raise economic growth and people's well-being. It could -- but only if the focus is not on the quantity and volume of investment, write Asian Devt Bank's independent evaluation senior advisor; and dir-gen

Emerging economies affect global financial changes, IMF Survey Mag, 4 Apr 16:
Changes in global equity prices and exchange rates increasingly reflect financial developments in emerging economies, acc. to new IMF research. The study finds that rising financial integration, more than emerging markets' growing share of global GDP and trade, is the key factor behind their increasing impact

Posted on Mon, 04 Apr 2016:

What are the Panama Papers? A guide to the biggest data leak in history, Guardian, 4 Apr 16:
The Panama Papers are an unprecedented leak of 11.5 mil. files from the database of the world's 4rth biggest offshore law firm, Mossack Fonseca. The records were obtained from an anonymous source by the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung, which shared them with the Intl Consortium of Investigative Journalists

Risk management, not unproductive public feuds, Daily Star/Bangladesh, by M Chaudhury, 19 Mar 16 [via McGill Univ]:
It seems that Deutsche Bank (Bangladesh Bank's correspondent bank in NY) and the Federal Reserve Bank of NY were initially executing the transfer requests without manual due diligence (identification, reconciliation and confirmation), writes McGill U finance prof

Letter to Federal Reserve Bank of NY Pres William Dudley, by Rep. Carolyn Maloney (NY-12), US Congress, 22 Mar 16:
Press reports indicate that the New York Fed requested reconfirmation from Bangladesh Bank of all 35 transfer orders, but executed the 1st 5 transfer orders without receiving any reconfirmation. Why did the NY Fed request reconfirmation from BB, but not wait until it received reconfirmation before executing the 1st 5 transfer orders?

Posted on Wed, 23 Mar 2016:

Raghuram Rajan: Why the world needs new monetary policy rules, Project Syndicate, 22 Mar 16 [via WEForum (blog)]:
Both advanced and emerging economies need to grow in order to ease domestic political tensions. And yet few are. If govts respond by enacting policies that divert growth from other nations, this "beggar my neighbor" tactic will simply foster instability elsewhere, writes Reserve Bank of India head

Informality and formality - Two ends of the employment continuum, World Bank (blog), by S Nataraj, 22 Jan 16 [via Rand (blog)]:
Informal employment predominates in many low-income nations, and its apparent staying power is a concern because informal employees tend to be paid lower wages, and to receive fewer benefits and legal protections than formal employees, writes Rand prog assoc dir

The techonomist in the machine, Richmond Fed Econ Focus, by D Price, 29 Feb 16:
When Tom Blake was on the job market in 2012 as an econ PhD student, he assumed he would land at a univ or a govt research dept. But he joined eBay Research Labs that year and became part of the small, but growing, band of economists doing econ research in tech companies

Posted on Mon, 21 Mar 2016:

What we know about Cuba's economy, Pew Research Ctr, by D Desilver, 28 May 15:
Getting a handle on even basic info about the economy is difficult, for a number of reasons. The govt still dominates econ activity on the island, both directly and through heavily subsidized state-owned enterprises (As Cuban economy stagnates, economists press for deeper reforms, Reuters)

Our four-decade antitrust experiment has failed, Mother Jones, by K Drum, 15 Mar 16:
All the promises and regulations in the world will never change the fact that once a market is dominated by 3 or 4 huge firms, competition becomes flabby. In markets with low barriers to entry, this isn't too big a deal. But not so in markets with high capital costs or other barriers to entry

Bridging the skills gap in developing countries, Boston Consulting Group, by Barthel, Witthöft, Baic & Strack, 14 Mar 16:
One of the most effective ways to fight poverty is through job creation. At the same time, many firms cannot fill positions because applicants lack the right skills. The private sector needs to play an active role in closing the skills gap, since the public sector is often too stretched

Posted on Fri, 18 Mar 2016:

Conference highlights Asia's advancing role in the global economy, IMF Survey Mag, 15 Mar 16:
While Asia remains the most dynamic part of the world economy, its growth momentum has cooled, reflecting in part a more challenging global environment. Despite the strong growth, millions continue to live in poverty, and labor force participation by women and youth remains low

Solving an economic mystery surrounding Argentina and Chile, Harvard Univ, 8 Mar 16:
At the end of the 19th century, Argentina was one of the great econ powers in the world, capitalizing on exports of beef and wheat. Neighboring Chile was poised for tremendous growth as well, based on its exports of nitrate. In the 20th century, neither country would see such glory again

Geoffrey Heal: What's our climate worth?, Columbia Univ, 12 Feb 16:
You can think of climate policy as a type of insurance. We're paying some money now to reduce the risks we and future generations will be exposed to later. But it's difficult to know how much we should be willing to pay when we don't know exactly what the risks are, says Columbia U prof

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