News and Analysis: 04-16 Jan 2016 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

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Posted on Mon, 16 Jan 2017:

Maurice Obstfeld: A shifting global economic landscape, IMF (blog), 16 Jan 17:
Our China growth upgrade reflects an expectation of continuing policy support; but a sharp slowdown in the future remains a risk given continuing rapid credit expansion, impaired corporate debts, and persistent govt support for inefficient state-owned firms, writes IMF chief economist

Just 8 men own same wealth as half the world - report, Oxfam, 16 Jan 17:
Eight men own the same wealth as the 3.6 bil. people who make up the poorest half of humanity, acc. to a new report, 'An economy for the 99 percent'. The repoirt's calculations are based on global wealth distribution data provided by the Credit Suisse Global Wealth Data book

Boardroom/C-suite: Margaret MacMillan -- 8 leadership lessons from history, WEForum (blog), 15 Jan 17:
Looking for clear lessons in history is a futile quest: there are too many and their meaning is always in dispute. History can be useful, however, in suggesting patterns and parallels, raising questions, and – equally important – giving warnings about why things go wrong, writes Oxford U historian

Posted on Sat, 14 Jan 2017:

Eliminating rent seeking, tougher antitrust enforcement critical to reducing inequality-Nobel Laureates, U Chicago (blog), 10 Jan 17:
"To the very considerable extent that inequality is generated by rent seeking, we could sharply reduce it if rent seeking were to be somehow reduced," said 2015 Nobel Laureate Angus Deaton and 2001 Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz, during a panel of Nobel laureates last Fri

An economist's case for open borders, Dissent Mag, by A Abrahamian, Jan '17:
When citizens of rich host nations imagine foreigners settling down within their borders, they fear that their jobs, their benefits, and their idea of national (and ethnic) unity will be threatened. The campaigning around Brexit and Trump's victory will endure as the consequences of this talk in action

George Borjas: Yes, immigration hurts American workers, Politico Mag, Oct '16:
I’ve been studying immigration for 30 years, but this was the 1st time my research was cited in a convention speech. Trump used one of my econ papers to back up his plan to crack down on immigrants. But he was telling only half the story, writes Harvard economist

Posted on Wed, 11 Jan 2017:

Joseph Stiglitz: The Age of Trump, Project Syndicate, 08 Jan 17 [via New Europe/Belgium]:
There is no going back. China and India are now integrated into the global economy, and technological innovation is reducing the number of manufacturing jobs worldwide. Trump cannot recreate the well-paying manufacturing jobs of past decades, writes 2001 Nobel Laureate

Glenn Hubbard: How Trump could promote long-term economic growth, NYT, 27 Dec 17 [courtesy Columbia U]:
The giddy market response lays bare steps the new admin and its econ team need to take to justify that optimism. While there are many issues on the new team's econ plate, one should take precedence over the others, writes Pres GW Bush's Council Econ Advisers chair

Davos 2017 to focus on collaboration, growth, reformed capitalism, Fourth Industrial Revolution, WEForum, 10 Jan 17:
Under the theme "Responsive and Responsible Leadership", the meeting will focus on four critical leadership challenges -- re-imagining global cooperation, revitalizing the global economy, reforming capitalism and preparing for the Fourth Industrial Revolution

Posted on Mon, 09 Jan 2017:

Martin Feldstein: The House Republicans' good tax trade-off, WSJ, 05 Jan 17 [courtesy Harvard]:
The tax plan developed by the House Republicans is similar in many ways to Trump's plan but has one additional favorable feature - a border tax adjustment that exempts exports and taxes imports, writes Pres Reagan's Council Econ Advisers chair

Birdsall and Gelb: Foreign aid in the Trump admin - Probably different, but not smaller?, Ctr Global Devt (blog), 21 Dec 16:
Foreign aid is often mentioned as the 1st and easiest thing to cut, esp. in a Republican admin with a Republican Congress. But maybe not. It is likely to look different, but may not be smaller. Consider five points, writes Ctr pres emeritus; and senior fellow

Andy Sumner: The world's two new middles - Implications for the future of development and aid, UNU-WIDER (blog), May '16:
Econ growth since the Cold War has produced two new middles. The first is middle-income nations, and the second is 'middle people' who live above the global poverty line - but not too far above, writes King's College London Intl Devt Inst co-dir

Posted on Fri, 06 Jan 2017:

Bradford Jensen: Importers are exporters - Tariffs would hurt our most competitive firms, Peterson Inst (blog), 07 Dec 16:
Trump is looking for ways to punish firms that outsource jobs overseas and appears to be considering increasing tariffs on imported goods. The common view that exports are good and imports are bad is fundamentally misguided, writes Georgetown U economist

William Easterly: The 'War on Terror' vs the 'War on Poverty', NY Review of Books, 24 Nov 16 [PDF, courtesy NYU]:
Those of us who fight global poverty share a guilty secret: our cause got more attention and resources after 11 September 2001. But this boost for the cause of the world's poor came at a price, writes NYU economist

Danny Quah: There are many reasons why development must not fail, Author's blog, 17 Sep 16:
Some reckon there is just one way to run the world. That singular path is the set of ideals surrounding liberal democracy and market capitalism, as practised in the nations surrounding the Trans-Atlantic Axis, writes Natl U Singapore economist

Posted on Wed, 04 Jan 2017:

Top risks for 2017, Eurasia Group, 03 Jan 17:
This year marks the most volatile political risk environment in the postwar period, at least as important to global markets as the econ recession of 2008. It needn't develop into a geopolitical depression that triggers major interstate military conflict. But such an outcome is now thinkable

Farhi, Gopinath & Itskhoki: Trump's tax plan and the dollar, Project Syndicate, 03 Jan 17 [courtesy Financial Advisor Mag]:
With Trump and the Republican control of Congress, corporate tax reform is coming. The package includes 2 important features: a cut in the current 35% tax rate; and a "border-adjustment" tax, which would treat domestic and imported inputs differently, write Harvard and Princeton economists

Coffee/Tea Room: Mohamed El-Erian -- Lessons from my anxious holiday shopping, Bloomberg, 30 Dec 16:
Phew. Somehow, I survived the uncertainty and anxiety of what economists like me often regard as an inefficient tradition: spending hours looking for the right holiday gifts, writes Pres Obama's Global Development Council chair

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