News and Analysis: 18-31 Jan 2017 | EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

Based in: Manila, Philippines

Posted on Tue, 31 Jan 2017:

Eric Beinhocker: A new narrative for a complex age, OECD (blog), 30 Jan 17:
If 2008 was the year of the financial crash, 2016 was the year of the political crash. In that year we witnessed the collapse of the last of the four major economic-political ideologies that dominated the 20th century, writes Inst New Econ Thinking exec dir at U Oxford

Improving governance is key to ensuring equitable growth in developing countries, World Bank, 30 Jan 17:
The "2017 World Development Report: Governance and the Law" urges developing countries and international development agencies to rethink their approach to governance, as a key to overcoming challenges related to security, growth, and equity

Robert Lawrence: The Mexico tariff 's great irony - Americans would pay for it too, PBS, 27 Jan 17:
Should the Trump admin's threats to impose a 20 percent tariff on US imports from Mexico be treated as a serious policy proposal or simply bluster and part of a power play?, asks Inst senior fellow

Posted on Fri, 27 Jan 2017:

Immigration facts - Migrants, walls, refugees, and enforcement, Hoover Inst, 26 Jan 17:
Immigration patterns are changing rapidly, in ways that often leave policy makers focused on yesterday's challenges. One surprising trend is the decline in migrants from Mexico, now overshadowed by Chinese immigration (Dept. Homeland Security: Yearbook of Immigration Statistics, Dec '16)

Barry Eichengreen: Brace for a strong dollar, FT, 26 Jan 17 [courtesy Ctr Intl Governance Innov]:
One factor affecting the dollar is the expectation that the US will have loose fiscal and tight monetary policies, the same mix that made for an uncomfortably strong dollar during Ronald Reagan's presidency, writes U Calif-Berkeley economist

Richard Zeckhauser: 2005 Nobel Laureate Thomas Schelling - An appreciation, Milken Inst, Jan '17:
Schelling, a preeminent nuclear strategist -- or more accurately a prevent-nuclear-war strategist -- often arrives at unconventional recommendations on critical policy issues, writes Harvard economist / co-author of A Primer for Policy Analysis

Posted on Wed, 25 Jan 2017:

Edward Alden: Trump and the TPP - Giving away something for nothing, Council on Foreign Relations (blog), 23 Jan 17:
It is the 1st rule of any negotiation that you don't give away something for nothing. In announcing the withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, he has just unilaterally given away the biggest piece of leverage he had to deal with the biggest challenge in the world of trade, writes Council senior fellow

Canada must work with US allies to save NAFTA, Globe and Mail/Can., by Patrick Leblond, 24 Nov 16 [courtesy CIGI]:
Trump has taken the easy way out by blaming NAFTA for lost jobs in the northern US and Midwestern Rust Belt states as manufacturing operations have moved south or abroad. But NAFTA only played a supportive role in a relocation process that was already under way, writes Ctr senior fellow

Robert Skidelsky: Economists vs the economy, Project Syndicate, 23 Dec 16 [courtesy Author's site]:
John Stuart Mill, the great 19th-century economist and philosopher, believed that nobody can be a good economist if he or she is just an economist. To be sure, most academic disciplines have become highly specialized since Mill's day, writes author of award-winning biography of Keynes

Posted on Mon, 23 Jan 2017:

Branko Milanovic: Can inequality be reduced?, Globalist, 24 Dec 16:
The 20th century is the only period in history when rising average incomes have been accompanied by decreasing inequality. Looking ahead, it is unlikely that we can rely on the "positive" means again to reduce inequality, writes author of Global Inequality: A new approach for the age of globalization (2016)

Angus Deaton: Getting past the globalization bogeyman, Project Syndicate, 08 Jan 17 [via New Europe/Belgium]:
The call to rein in globalization reflects a belief that it has eliminated jobs in the West, sending them East and South. But the biggest threat to traditional jobs is not Chinese or Mexican, writes 2015 Nobel Laureate

Economists' study identifies NAFTA's winners and losers, Univ Virginia, 15 Oct 16:
The North American Free Trade Agreement, or NAFTA, signed by the govts of US, Canada and Mexico in '93, has been a subject of debate since its inception and a prominent issue in several pres'l campaigns, incl this year's race

Posted on Fri, 20 Jan 2017:

At Davos, ministers call on G20 to aim for inclusive growth, reject protectionism, WEForum, 19 Jan 17:
"If you want to get more inclusive growth, you need more free trade," said the finance minister of Germany, which holds the G20 presidency. SAfrica's finance minister said he expects the US to continue to play a key role in enabling global growth and creating the right framework for inclusivity

Robert Shiller: The illusions driving up US asset prices, Project Syndicate, 19 Jan 17 [via Azerbaijan News]:
Speculative markets have always been vulnerable to illusion. But seeing the folly in markets provides no clear advantage in forecasting outcomes, because changes in the force of the illusion are difficult to predict. In the US, two illusions have been important recently, writes 2013 Nobel Laureate

What now for workers after the 'China trade shock'?, Amer Enterp Inst (blog), by J Pethokoukis, 18 Jan 17:
It was "the paper that shook the world of economics," acc. to Bloomberg. The paper, "The China Shock", by economists David Autor (MIT), David Dorn (U Zurich) and Gordon Hanson (U Calif-San Diego), introduced the "China trade shock" into the lexicon. To find out more, I chatted with Hanson

Posted on Wed, 18 Jan 2017:

Time is right for policies to address concerns that fuel populism, WEForum, 18 Jan 17:
IMF chief Lagarde suggested more redistributionist policies, since "excessive inequality puts a brake on sustainable growth." Brazil's fin minister said that the current trends of middle-class anger are specific to certain developed nations, while many emerging nations have seen strong growth in the middle class

Kenneth Rogoff: The Trump deficit, Project Syndicate, 17 Jan 17 [via Financial Advisor Mag]:
It is a post-financial-crisis myth that austerity-minded conservative govts always favor fiscal prudence, while redistribution-oriented progressives view large deficits as the world's biggest free lunch, writes recipient of 2011 Deutsche Bank prize in fin econ

Luigi Zingales: Trump's economic policies - Pro-business, not pro-market, Il Sole 24 Ore/Italy, 12 Jan 17 [via U Chicago (blog)]:
After two months, it is clear that the Trump industrial policy will be pro-business, not pro-market. It may seem to be a nuance, but there is a fundamental difference, writes U Chicago economist

EmergingFrontierMarkets.com

emerging and frontier markets:

the unofficial field guide